英文名称：Earth 2100
年代：2009
推荐：千部英美剧台词本阅读
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| [00:01] | In my life, I’ve seen New York City under full quarantine. | 我这一生 目睹了纽约市被全面隔离 |
| [00:04] | The Midwest, overrun, devastated by pests. | 美国中西部 昆虫肆虐 泛滥成灾 |
| [00:08] | Plagues sweep across California. | 瘟疫横扫加州 |
| [00:10] | And then what happened next was something none of us saw coming. | 我们谁也无法预见将要发生的事 |
| [00:13] | It became a race against time to save our future, | 我们与时间赛跑 去拯救未来 |
| [00:16] | to even have a future. | 甚至于去创造未来 |
| [00:18] | It’s the year 2100 and I survived. | 二一零零年 我幸存了下来 |
| [00:22] | To change the future, first you have to imagine it. | 想要改变未来 首先你得想象一番 |
| [00:25] | “Earth 2100” | 地球 2100 |
| [00:28] | Starts now. | 现在为您呈现 |
| [00:34] | The idea that within this century, perhaps in your lifetime, | 在本世纪内 或许在你有生之年 |
| [00:37] | our civilization could lie in ruins seems unbelievable. | 人类文明可能化为乌有的想法似乎难以置信 |
| [00:42] | But according to some of the world’s leading minds, | 但据一些世界顶级人士的分析 |
| [00:44] | that’s not just a worst-case scenario, | 这并不只是最坏的假设 |
| [00:47] | it’s a real possibility. | 这绝对有可能发生 |
| [00:49] | Good evening, I’m Bob Woodruff. | 晚上好 我是鲍勃·伍德夫 |
| [00:51] | Over the next two hours, | 在接下来的两个小时里 |
| [00:53] | we’ll take you on a journey into a world | 我们将带你进入一个 |
| [00:54] | that could await us and our children. | 可能承载着我们以及我们子孙的世界 |
| [00:57] | 370,000 babies will be born today. | 今天将有37万新生儿降生 |
| [01:00] | And we’ve taken the liberty of creating one more, | 让我们来冒昧地创造一个 |
| [01:03] | a fictional character we’re calling Lucy, | 一个叫露西的虚拟角色 |
| [01:05] | who will be our guide through this century. | 她将成为我们穿越这个世纪的向导 |
| [01:08] | Her life story is not a prediction about what will happen, | 她的人生故事不是预示将要发生什么 |
| [01:12] | but what might happen. | 而是可能发生什么 |
| [01:31] | This once glorious city, | 这座曾经辉煌壮丽的城市 |
| [01:32] | whose lights at night could be seen for miles, | 曾经远远地就可以看到她的夜晚灯火辉煌 |
| [01:35] | empty now. | 如今空空如也 |
| [01:39] | Its towering skyscrapers, | 她高耸的摩天大厦 |
| [01:42] | once a testament to our ingenuity, | 曾是我们才智的证明 |
| [01:44] | now stand as crumbling monuments to our demise. | 现在却成了我们消亡后残破的遗址 |
| [01:49] | Maybe only artists can grasp | 也许只有艺术家才能捕捉到 |
| [01:51] | what that kind of future really holds for us. | 这样的未来在警示我们什么 |
| [01:54] | It’s perhaps in the area | 可能这里 |
| [01:55] | that we think of today as science fiction, | 我们今天觉得是科幻小说里的场景 |
| [01:58] | but that could be a very real future for the planet. | 但可能就是这个星球非常真实的未来 |
| [02:02] | A hundred years from now, if New York is abandoned, | 一百年后 如果纽约被遗弃了 |
| [02:04] | I can imagine some advanced creatures, | 我可以想象到某些高等生物 |
| [02:07] | maybe humans, maybe extraterrestrials, | 或许是人类 或许是外星人 |
| [02:09] | looking at New York and saying, | 看着纽约 说 |
| [02:11] | those ignorant people, how on | 那些无知的人啊 |
| 本电影台词包含不重复单词：1977个。 其中的生词包含：四级词汇：462个，六级词汇：277个，GRE词汇：260个，托福词汇：404个，考研词汇：544个，专四词汇：404个，专八词汇：81个， 所有生词标注共：860个。 定制生词标注的台词本和单词统计，请访问生词标注台词本 | ||
| [02:13] | earth could they have ever expected to survive? | 他们怎么可能奢望存活下来 |
| [02:18] | I can ask myself what happened, | 我知道都发生了什么 |
| [02:20] | but where do I begin? | 但我要从何说起呢 |
| [02:21] | With the droughts, the famines, the plague? | 从干旱 饥荒 瘟疫说起吗 |
| [02:24] | It began long before all that. | 它起始于更早的时候 |
| [02:28] | I lived through it all. | 我全部都挺过来了 |
| [02:31] | My story is everyone’s story, | 我的故事也就是大家的故事 |
| [02:34] | the story of the last century. | 那些上个世纪的故事 |
| [02:52] | I was born June 2nd, 2009. | 我出生于二零零九年六月二号 |
| [02:55] | Civilization was at a crossroads. | 人类文明到了一个转折点 |
| [02:58] | We were in a race for our future. | 我们处于争取未来的赛跑中 |
| [03:02] | Today, I say to you | 今天我要告诉各位 |
| [03:04] | that the challenges we face are real. | 我们面临的挑战是真实存在的 |
| [03:06] | They are serious and they are many. | 形势严峻 灾难频发 |
| [03:08] | The temperature is expected to keep going up. | 气温如预期般持续上升 |
| [03:10] | The stock market plunged. | 股市猛跌 |
| [03:12] | Douglas County will run out of drinking water. | 道格拉斯县将发生水资源短缺 |
| [03:12] | 旱级: 4 禁止户外用水 | |
| [03:14] | They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. | 要短时间内满足他们 实非易事 |
| [03:17] | Sixth grader came down with suspected swine flu on Wednesday. | 本周三六年级学生出现了疑似猪流感 |
| [03:21] | Energy, climate, food, | 能源 气候 食物 |
| [03:23] | population, economic pressures, | 人口以及经济压力 |
| [03:25] | any one of these challenges | 其中任何单独一项挑战 |
| [03:27] | might be very serious in itself. | 都可能非常棘手 |
| [03:29] | But because they’re happening all simultaneously, | 而它们又同时发生了 |
| [03:32] | it’s going to be very difficult for our governments to cope. | 因此 我们的政府将很难妥善处理 |
| [03:34] | When I look at the next century, I feel it’s up for grabs. | 我看下个世纪 那就像是公开竞标 |
| [03:38] | – Raising sea levels… – Catastrophic weather. | -不断上升的海平面 -灾难性气候 |
| [03:39] | – Ten-year drought… – It’s scary. | -十年干旱 -太可怕了 |
| [03:41] | These are things that are happening today. | 这就是如今正在发生的事情 |
| [03:42] | The time for action is now. | 现在是时候行动了 |
| [03:45] | The world had never known such uncertainty. | 人们从没意识到这些不安定性 |
| [03:48] | We were used to having what we wanted and doing what we wanted. | 我们习惯于为所欲为 |
| [03:52] | The analogy that I would draw is… | 打个比方 |
| [03:54] | someone looking at their bank account, | 比如有人关注着自己的银行账户 |
| [03:57] | and week after week, | 一周又一周 |
| [03:58] | they’re withdrawing money and they’re enjoying the good life. | 他们不断从中取钱 享受美好人生 |
| [04:01] | If they would bother to read the statements, | 如果他们能花时间读一下银行结单 |
| [04:03] | they would see that the bank account is | 就会发现自己账户里的钱正不断减少 |
| [04:05] | dropping $900, $800, | 从九百美元到八百美元 |
| [04:07] | $700, $600. | 到七百美元 六百美元 |
| [04:09] | And at that rate you know | 以此类推 你会发现 |
| [04:11] | that another six months of the good life | 再六个月之后 美好生活 |
| [04:14] | is not gonna be a good life anymore. | 将不再美好 |
| [04:17] | We’ve acted as though we were independent of the environment. | 我们表现得好像我们不再依赖环境 |
| [04:21] | We burned fossil fuels. | 我们焚烧化石燃料 |
| [04:23] | We’ve overused our renewable resources | 滥用可再生资源 |
| [04:27] | in the belief that we could do that forever. | 并且深信可以永远这样做 |
| [04:30] | People are complaining | 人们在抱怨 |
| [04:31] | about the economic crisis we have right now. | 我们现在遭遇的经济危机 |
| [04:34] | You haven’t seen nothing yet. | 最糟糕的事你还没有看见呢 |
| [04:35] | You know, if we continue down | 你知道 如果我们继续 |
| [04:36] | this suicidal pathway that we’re on, | 沿着这条自我毁灭之路走下去 |
| [04:39] | where we basically turn living stuff | 总的来说也就是将生物 |
| [04:40] | into dead stuff and call that economic growth, | 变成死物 并称之为经济增长 |
| [04:43] | this will look like the good old days. | 这会看起来像美好旧时代 |
| [04:53] | Although the world I was born into | 尽管我所降生的世界 |
| [04:55] | was running out of so much, | 正在耗尽太多的资源 |
| [04:57] | water, oil, land, | 水 油 土地 |
| [04:58] | I remember a loving family, | 我仍然记得那个温馨的家 |
| [05:01] | a big house, green lawn, | 大房子 绿草地 |
| [05:02] | more water than we knew what to do with. | 多得用不完的水 |
| [05:05] | My parents must have known what was happening. | 我的父母一定知道外面情况如何 |
| [05:07] | We had a compact car and recycled. | 我们有辆小型汽车和回收站 |
| [05:11] | And it wasn’t just us. | 不仅仅是我们在努力 |
| [05:13] | Smart, imaginative people | 各地机敏 富于创造力的人们 |
| [05:15] | everywhere were working furiously on solutions. | 正急切地寻求着解决方法 |
| [05:18] | Our government was pouring money into alternative energy. | 我们的政府耗资巨大来开发新能源 |
| [05:22] | It seemed like everyone was growing their own vegetable garden. | 感觉像是每个人都在自己种植蔬菜 |
| [05:25] | Windmills were sprouting up all over. | 风车四处涌现 |
| [05:28] | People were beginning to understand. | 人们开始理解 |
| [05:31] | But the clock was running out, | 但是时间所剩无几 |
| [05:33] | and nature was always one step ahead. | 大自然总是抢先一步 |
| [05:36] | Flowers are blooming earlier | 花期开始提前 |
| [05:38] | and trees are leafing earlier. | 树叶脱落也提前了 |
| [05:41] | Birds are coming back from migration much earlier. | 候鸟迁徙归来的时间也提前了 |
| [05:44] | If you were to pull back from the Earth, what you would see is | 如果你能置身地球之外 你看到的将是 |
| [05:47] | sort of a refugee movement, if you will . | 一场难民暴动 如果你能看到 |
| [05:50] | And species are moving their ranges | 物种向北迁徙 |
| [05:53] | farther north to get to cool, | 以求凉爽 |
| [05:55] | from south to north, | 从南方到北方 |
| [05:57] | and from the valleys up to the mountain tops. | 并且从山谷迁移至山顶 |
| [06:10] | Of course, as a child, I didn’t notice these things, | 当然 作为一个孩子 我注意不到这些 |
| [06:13] | having nothing to compare it to. | 也没有与之可比的事物 |
| [06:16] | I was a little girl enchanted by my small world. | 我沉迷于自己的小小世界 |
| [06:19] | Until one summer, | 直到一年夏天 |
| [06:21] | thousands, maybe millions of dragonflies | 成千上万 或许上百万只蜻蜓 |
| [06:24] | showed up out of nowhere. | 不知从哪里冒了出来 |
| [06:25] | They were delicate and beautiful | 他们如此精致美丽 |
| [06:27] | and I put one in a jar. | 我抓了一只放进罐子里 |
| [06:31] | My mother was puzzled and looked them up. | 妈妈很疑惑 所以查了一下 |
| [06:34] | They were supposed to be in Cuba, not Miami. | 这些蜻蜓本应该在古巴 而不是迈阿密 |
| [06:39] | It was not until much later | 直到后来 |
| [06:42] | that I realized they were a sign of what was to come. | 我才意识到 这些蜻蜓是灾难的前兆 |
| [06:49] | It’s 2015, six short years from now, | 二零一五年 六年时光匆匆而过 |
| [06:53] | and the best-laid plans are getting underway. | 最佳计划开始实行 |
| [06:55] | A wave farm off Scotland is harnessing the ocean’s energy. | 苏格兰附近水域的一片海浪农场正在利用海洋能 |
| [06:59] | Vatican City has gone totally solar. | 梵蒂冈全城皆用太阳能 |
| [07:01] | And here in America, | 在美国这儿 |
| [07:03] | cars are running cleaner and more efficiently. | 汽车的污染更少 效率更高 |
| [07:06] | Still, we cling to that old habit, oil, | 我们仍在依赖旧能源 石油 |
| [07:09] | and it’s getting harder and more expensive to find. | 开采石油变得难度更高 代价更大 |
| [07:13] | From coast to coast, | 从东海岸到西海岸 |
| [07:14] | motorists are searching for | 加州的驾车人正在寻求 |
| [07:16] | relief from soaring gas prices in California… | 解决油价飙升的方法 |
| [07:18] | We could see a doubling or tripling of | 通货膨胀后 油价已经 |
| [07:20] | real oil prices, that’s after inflation. | 飙升至真实价格的两到三倍 |
| [07:26] | We’re running out of oil and we’ve created a society, | 我们正在耗尽石油资源并且创造了一个社会 |
| [07:30] | the American way of life is what we call it, | 我们称之为美式生活方式 |
| [07:32] | based on the assumption that oil will be plentiful forever. | 也就是假设石油是取之不尽的 |
| [07:38] | The large spread out suburbs that we’ve grown accustomed to, | 我们惯于生活的大型延展郊区 |
| [07:41] | the strip malls, | 沿路商业区 |
| [07:43] | the big box stores with their enormous parking lots around them, | 以及拥有大量停车位的大卖场 |
| [07:47] | all of those have been made possible | 因为廉价的汽油 |
| [07:49] | because we’ve had cheap gasoline, | 所有这些成为了可能 |
| [07:51] | and as energy becomes much more expensive, | 随着能源价格不断提升 |
| [07:54] | you’ll see that those areas become | 你会发现那些区域 |
| [07:56] | less desirable places to live. | 愈加不适合居住 |
| [08:10] | 出售房屋 屋主低价转手 | |
| [08:11] | The first time I moved, I was six. | 第一次搬家时 我六岁 |
| [08:14] | A lot of people were leaving the suburbs for the city. | 许多人离开郊区 搬往市区 |
| [08:18] | There were new jobs, and you didn’t need a car for everything. | 那里有许多新工作 你完全不需要开车 |
| [08:23] | My dad was going to work on the new streetcar system in Miami. | 我爸爸要到迈阿密的新电车系统工作 |
| [08:29] | And my mother told me we were going | 妈妈告诉我 我们要住在 |
| [08:31] | to live on the top floor of an apartment building. | 一幢公寓楼的顶层 |
| [08:33] | She said we’d see the palm trees below us. | 她说我们能够看到楼下的棕榈树 |
| [08:39] | I was excited, but also a little sad to leave. | 我很兴奋 但是也有一点离别的感伤 |
| [08:48] | As the price of oil goes up, | 随着石油价格的上涨 |
| [08:50] | it will ripple through every part of the global economy. | 全球经济都随着它动荡不安 |
| [08:54] | In Washington today, | 今天在华盛顿 |
| [08:55] | protesters demanded an end to rising food prices. | 抗议人群要求遏止食品价格上涨 |
| [08:59] | Our agriculture system is almost wholly dependent on cheap oil . | 我们的农业体系几乎完全依赖廉价石油 |
| [09:04] | Tremendous amounts of diesel fuel | 海量的柴油 |
| [09:06] | that are used in planting and harvesting | 用于种植和收割 |
| [09:08] | and then moving the stuff, all these vast distances. | 并且还要用于长距离运送这些农产品 |
| [09:11] | By 2015 in the United States, | 到二零一五年 |
| [09:13] | add about 20 million people to the population | 美国将会新增两千万人口 |
| [09:16] | and then just play out what that does to consumption patterns. | 然后想想这对消费结构产生的影响 |
| [09:18] | I mean, the, the number of people that we’ve got to feed. | 我是说 我们要养活的人数 |
| [09:21] | There’s just basically this slow, | 从根本上说 对自然资源 |
| [09:23] | creeping tension for natural resources. | 会产生的缓慢增长的紧张局势 |
| [09:28] | As the American way of life becomes increasingly unsustainable, | 随着美式生活变得无法持续 |
| [09:32] | the rest of the world will be trying to catch up. | 世界上其他国家正努力赶超 |
| [09:36] | The Chinese like cars. | 中国人喜欢汽车 |
| [09:37] | And they like big cars. | 尤其大块头的车 |
| [09:39] | You have 14,000 cars out onto China’s roads daily. | 中国的公路上每天有一万四千辆车行驶 |
| [09:43] | Incomes are rising really rapidly. | 收入迅速提高 |
| [09:45] | They’re moving into meat-based diets. | 他们的肉食比例增加 |
| [09:47] | You need 10 pounds of grain to get one pound of meat. | 十磅谷物才能产生一磅肉 |
| [09:50] | There is simply no way that the | 世界上其他地方几乎不可能 |
| [09:52] | rest of the world can start eating meat the way we do. | 像我们这样开始吃肉 |
| [09:56] | If everyone in the world | 如果世界人均消费量 |
| [09:57] | consumed as much as the average American, | 都与美国人均消费齐平 |
| [09:59] | it would take the resources of | 那么就要耗费四个地球的资源来 |
| [10:01] | four Earths to support the planet’s population, | 供养人类 |
| [10:04] | which raises the question, | 这带来一个问题 |
| [10:06] | should the rest of the world consume less, | 降低消耗的应该是世界的其他地方 |
| [10:08] | or should we? | 还是应该是美国呢 |
| [10:09] | American habits, though, are hard to break. | 尽管 美国人的习惯很难克服 |
| [10:13] | We in the US have gotten used to the idea that we’re somehow | 我们美国人的一贯想法就是 |
| [10:16] | immune to natural limits and | 无论如何自然资源短缺不会影响到我们 |
| [10:17] | it’s the other people who are going to suffer. | 这只会影响到别人 |
| [10:24] | Good morning, Miami. | 早安迈阿密 |
| [10:26] | The summer of 2015 is on track | 二零一五年的夏天正在成为有史以来 |
| [10:27] | to become one of the hottest in history. | 最炎热的夏天之一 |
| [10:30] | Temperatures are expected to be in the triple digits. | 气温预计要高达三位数 |
| [10:33] | My mother and I were waiting for gas. | 当时我和妈妈在排队加油 |
| [10:35] | The line went around the block and then some. | 队伍绕着一个街区排出一圈还多 |
| [10:38] | Nothing new. | 还是老样子 |
| [10:39] | But this time, the line had stopped moving altogether. | 但这次 所有车都原地不动了 |
| [10:47] | A man who worked at the gas station came out holding a sign. | 加油站的一名员工出来 手里举着标示 |
| [10:49] | 汽油 已售空 | |
| [10:51] | People started yelling and they got out of their cars | 人们开始叫嚷 从车里出来 |
| [10:54] | and started moving towards him. | 朝那个人涌过去 |
| [10:56] | My mother got us out of there fast. | 妈妈迅速带着我们离开了 |
| [11:03] | I’ve been staking out an area that’s been | 最近我一直在监视一处 |
| [11:04] | hit hard recently by gas snatchers. | 偷油者泛滥的地区 |
| [11:08] | Look at him, he gets out, walks right up to the car. | 快看他 他走出来 径直走到车那里 |
| [11:13] | Look at this, right in the middle of the day. | 快看呀 光天化日之下 |
| [11:15] | These cars going by, and these guys are– | 那么多辆车驶过 而这些人 |
| [11:17] | siphoning gas out of someone’s car. | 就在那儿抽取别人车里的汽油 |
| [11:21] | In the face of mounting protests over rising gas and food prices, | 面对激增的对于油粮价格上升的抗议 |
| [11:25] | Congress today approved a plan to fund the construction of | 国会今日通过了一项议案在接下来的五年里 |
| [11:27] | 40 new coal-fired power plants over the next five years. | 拨款建设四十家新的燃煤电厂 |
| [11:32] | The country took the easy way out. | 政府采取了简单的逃避策略 |
| [11:35] | Coal was once again touted as our so-called salvation. | 煤油再一次被吹捧为所谓的拯救措施 |
| [11:39] | But the more coal we burned, the faster our planet warmed. | 但是 煤烧得越多 全球变暖得就越快 |
| [11:43] | You get the picture. | 可以想象出 |
| [11:46] | We’re spewing more carbon, more methane, | 我们向大气排放了更多的 |
| [11:49] | more nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. | 碳 甲烷 氮氧化合物 |
| [11:51] | All the bad things of climate change are coming true. | 所有气候变化的噩梦都成真了 |
| [11:56] | And most people were just going along with their everyday lives | 而绝大部分人还只是照常生活 |
| [12:00] | as if nothing had changed. | 就像一切都没有改变一样 |
| [12:02] | And until we have a crisis of some kind, | 除非某种危机到来 |
| [12:04] | I don’t think we’re going to be | 否则我不认为我们会 |
| [12:06] | motivated to wake up and say, | 愿意清醒过来 说 |
| [12:07] | okay, now we have to change. | 好吧 我们必须改变 |
| [12:08] | Sometimes it takes a big shock to get people, | 有时需要一个巨大的冲击才能让人们 |
| [12:11] | you know, out of the inertia that– that– | 你知道的 脱离那种 |
| [12:13] | that’s built into the system. | 深植于体系中的惰性 |
| [12:20] | They’re calling it the storm of the century, | 琳达飓风被称作世纪风暴 |
| [12:22] | Hurricane Linda packing Category 5 winds. | 她具有五级风力 |
| [12:26] | Big storms weren’t unusual. | 大风暴并不是不寻常 |
| [12:28] | But this one was bigger than the others. | 但是这个比那些更加凶猛 |
| [12:31] | And it was headed for Miami. | 她正向迈阿密挺进 |
| [12:33] | All coastal regions are being evacuated. | 所有沿岸区域正被疏散 |
| [12:36] | This storm makes landfall, | 这场风暴强势着陆 |
| [12:38] | we’re going to see a tremendous storm surge. | 我们马上会见到一场可怕的风暴潮 |
| [12:40] | My mother was a nurse | 我妈妈是一名护士 |
| [12:41] | and she wouldn’t leave until | 直到所有患者都从医院转移后 |
| [12:43] | all the sick were evacuated from the hospital. | 她才会撤离 |
| [12:46] | My father was afraid we wouldn’t get out in time. | 爸爸很担心我们无法及时撤离 |
| [12:49] | I was afraid too. | 我当时也很害怕 |
| [12:57] | Those who make the decision not to evacuate | 那些下定决心留守的人们 |
| [12:59] | face life threatening danger, | 正面临着生命危险 |
| [13:01] | between the howling winds and those giant surging waves. | 处于怒号的狂风和汹涌的波涛中 |
| [13:05] | Miami is a very scary place to be right now. | 迈阿密现在成了一个可怕的地方 |
| [13:11] | 2015 is only six years away, | 离二零一五年只剩下六年了 |
| [13:13] | but many experts say that | 但众多专家表示 |
| [13:14] | if the world has not reached an agreement | 如果全世界到那时仍无法达成 |
| [13:16] | to massively reduce greenhouse gases by then, | 大量减少温室气体的协议 |
| [13:20] | we could pass the point of no return. | 我们就永远无法挽回 |
| [13:23] | If we’re still dragging our feet in 2015, | 如果我们在二零一五年还是止步不前 |
| [13:26] | it really becomes almost impossible for the world to avert | 那么遏制全球气候恶化就 |
| [13:31] | a degree of climate change | 真的成为天方夜谭了 |
| [13:32] | that we simply will not be able to manage. | 而我们将束手无策 |
| [13:35] | The longer we wait without | 我们拖得越久 |
| [13:36] | addressing these challenges in an aggressive way, | 不积极地应付挑战 |
| [13:39] | the more likely it is we’re | 我们就越有可能 |
| [13:41] | going to end up with really bad outcomes. | 自食恶果 |
| [13:44] | This morning, in the aftermath of Hurricane Linda, | 今天上午 飓风琳达过境之后 |
| [13:47] | we are seeing the first images of what remains of Miami. | 我们正在看到的是迈阿密的残余景象 |
| [13:51] | Neighboring communities have been overwhelmed | 社区内挤满了 |
| [13:53] | by hundreds of thousands of evacuees seeking refuge. | 几十万寻求避难的撤离人员 |
| [14:05] | The evacuation center was as big as an airplane hangar. | 撤离中心有飞机库那么大 |
| [14:09] | Maybe it was an airplane hangar. | 也许它以前就是一个飞机库 |
| [14:11] | And so jammed with people, it was hard to move. | 里面挤满了人 简直寸步难行 |
| [14:14] | It was hot. It was noisy. | 又热又吵 |
| [14:18] | We were there three weeks. | 我们在那儿待了三个星期 |
| [14:20] | There was nowhere for us to go. | 我们也没有其他地方可去 |
| [14:22] | Nowhere for anybody to go. | 大家都是如此 |
| [14:24] | We watched the news on TV. | 我们关注着电视上的新闻 |
| [14:27] | I was only six, but it looked | 那时我只有六岁 但是我已经 |
| [14:28] | to me like the whole world was in trouble. | 感觉到似乎整个世界陷入了困境 |
| [14:33] | Some 250,000 Bangladeshi refugees | 上个月毁灭性飓风中幸存的 |
| [14:35] | fleeing from last month’s devastating cyclone | 二十五万孟加拉国难民 |
| [14:38] | are massing on the Indian border. | 正在印度边境线大量聚集 |
| [14:40] | Thousands riot as China | 中国由于出现了十年来最严重的粮食短缺 |
| [14:41] | faces its worst wheat shortages in a decade, | 从而引发了数千起暴动 |
| [14:44] | the result of seemingly endless drought. | 这是无休止的干旱诱发的 |
| [14:47] | World leaders are gathering in Washington, DC | 各国首脑齐聚华盛顿 |
| [14:50] | to attend an Emergency Global Summit meeting. | 出席紧急全球首脑会议 |
| [14:52] | Hopes are high that the world | 人们热切地期盼世界各国 |
| [14:54] | might finally reach an historic climate agreement. | 能够达成一份历史性的气候协议 |
| [14:57] | This is the first time | 这是历史上第一次 |
| [14:59] | the whole planet is in that kind of a crisis | 在全球范围内爆发的此种危机 |
| [15:02] | and the whole planet has to | 世界各国必须 |
| [15:05] | join in meeting a crisis of epical proportions. | 携手共进 各司其职 应对这一危机 |
| [15:10] | In 2008, the Center for the New American Security, | 二零零八年 在新美国安全中心 |
| [15:13] | a Washington think tank, | 一个华盛顿智囊团 |
| [15:14] | staged an elaborate game. | 精心筹划了一次竞技 |
| [15:17] | The goal was to simulate a global summit on climate change. | 目标是模拟一次应对气候变化的全球峰会 |
| [15:20] | The year is 2015. | 会议年份设在二零一五年 |
| [15:22] | The context for the game is Lucy’s context. | 会议背景就是露西所处的背景 |
| [15:25] | Miami has been devastated by a hurricane, | 迈阿密被飓风摧毁 |
| [15:28] | and Bangladesh ravaged by a cyclone. | 孟加拉也被龙卷风破坏 |
| [15:31] | The people who are playing the roles of global leaders | 扮演各国首脑的人 |
| [15:34] | are in fact high level policymakers from around the world. | 其实也是来自世界各国的高层决策者 |
| [15:38] | Let me be very clear, our time is running out. | 让我提醒各位 时间所剩无几 |
| [15:43] | John Podesta, President Obama’s Transition Chief, | 约翰·波德斯塔 奥巴马总统的过渡期主管 |
| [15:46] | is playing the role of UN Secretary General. | 扮演联合国秘书长的角色 |
| [15:48] | Indeed today, in October of 2015, | 就在今天 在二零一五年的十月 |
| [15:51] | no country, no city is exempt from the ravages | 没有哪个国家 哪个城市免遭 |
| [15:56] | of climate change | 气候变化带来的劫难 |
| [15:57] | as we saw so tragically | 正如我们悲痛地目睹了 |
| [15:59] | with the Category 5 hurricane that hit Miami. | 重创迈阿密的五级飓风 |
| [16:03] | In the game, the Secretary General has asked for | 会议中 秘书长要求 |
| [16:05] | a 30% reduction in emissions by 2025. | 到二零二五年降低百分之三十的废气排放量 |
| [16:11] | The US team holds a closed-door strategy session. | 美国队召开了一个非公开决策会议 |
| [16:12] | It’s very important for us | 对我们非常重要的一点是 |
| [16:14] | to strike that very positive leadership tone | 要创造性地摒弃我们异常乐观的 |
| [16:17] | right out of the box. | 领导腔调 |
| [16:18] | We have to be much faster | 我们必须要更高效 |
| [16:20] | and more serious about emission reductions. | 更严肃地对待减少废气排放问题 |
| [16:22] | We need to do 30%. | 我们需要减少百分之三十 |
| [16:24] | – By 2025? – By 2025. | -到二零二五年吗 -到二零二五年 |
| [16:27] | But there’s a strong disagreement | 但是对美国民众 |
| [16:28] | about whether the American public | 是否愿意做这样的牺牲 |
| [16:30] | would be willing to make that kind of sacrifice. | 存在着强烈的异议 |
| [16:33] | Basically, the odds of a 30% | 基本上 使美国十年之内 |
| [16:34] | reduction in the United States in 10 years is zero. | 减少百分之三十排放量的几率是零 |
| [16:37] | The world is going to hell in a hand basket | 这个世界将要彻底完蛋了 |
| [16:39] | and we’re saying , gee , can we stretch this out? | 可我们还在说 我们可以再延长一下吗 |
| [16:43] | Even if the United States were | 即使美利坚合众国 |
| [16:45] | willing to make these reductions, | 愿意减少排放量 |
| [16:46] | this is a global crisis that needs global action. | 可也是一场需要各国协作的全球危机 |
| [16:50] | The US calls a meeting with China. | 美国队邀请中国队举行了一次共同会议 |
| [16:53] | We have an inherent | 代表我们的人民 |
| [16:55] | responsibility to our people to take action. | 采取行动是我们的天职 |
| [17:00] | In 2015, China and India are | 二零一五年 中国和印度 |
| [17:02] | in fact projected to account for more than 30% | 实际上计划要减少超过百分之三十的 |
| [17:05] | of the world’s carbon emissions. | 碳排放量 |
| [17:07] | But in the simulation, they’re unwilling to agree to a treaty | 但是在模拟会议上 他们却不愿意签署 |
| [17:11] | they feel limits their economic growth. | 这份他们认为会限制其经济增长的协议 |
| [17:13] | For both countries, the issue is fairness. | 对这两个国家来说 议题聚焦在了公平问题上 |
| [17:17] | The Western countries went | 西方国家已经经过了 |
| [17:18] | through a very energy intensive development process, | 能源密集型的发展过程 |
| [17:21] | became rich by burning coal and burning oil. | 通过燃烧石油煤矿已经变得富强 |
| [17:24] | Can countries like India and China do it | 像印度和中国这样的国家能够同样强大吗 |
| [17:26] | without burning as much fossil fuel as the West? | 如果不焚烧同样量的矿物燃料 |
| [17:29] | We have to go greener. | 我们必须更加环保 |
| [17:31] | You have the technology and you have the capital | 而你们有技术和资金 |
| [17:33] | and you’re prepared to help us grow on a greener path. | 你们帮助我们发展一条环保之路 |
| [17:36] | China and India say they will | 中国和印度表示他们 |
| [17:37] | agree to the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions | 同意减少温室气体的排放 |
| [17:40] | only if the West hands over the technology needed to do so. | 但是西方国家必须提供相应技术 |
| [17:44] | China would wish to get the technology | 中国还希望得到 |
| [17:48] | for the third generation of nuclear power plants. | 有关第三代核电厂的技术资料 |
| [17:54] | But Europe and the US refuse. | 但遭到了欧盟和美国的拒绝 |
| [17:56] | The technology belongs to private companies. | 那些技术属于私营企业 |
| [17:59] | Instead, they offer to help | 作为补偿 他们提出会承担 |
| [18:00] | pay the costs of switching to cleaner energy. | 改造清洁能源的费用 |
| [18:03] | You do the emissions reduction, | 你们建造减排工程 |
| [18:05] | and we give the money for | 而我们为 |
| [18:06] | the emissions reduction that you’ve done. | 你们完成的减排工程付钱 |
| [18:08] | If somebody, you know, | 如果一个人 你知道 |
| [18:10] | you have the money but you do not have the technology, | 你只有钱却没有技术 |
| [18:12] | and then you cannot reduce any emissions. | 那你就无法做到减排 |
| [18:15] | The whole summit hinges | 整个会议都围绕着 |
| [18:16] | on whether they can come to an understanding. | 他们是否能达成谅解 |
| [18:19] | So we’re not putting any pressures. | 我们不是在施加压力 |
| [18:22] | We’re just offering, | 我们只是提个建议 |
| [18:23] | and I think it’s a good offer. | 而且我认为这是个很好的提议 |
| [18:26] | We do not accept the offer. | 我们不接受这个提议 |
| [18:29] | The planet summit broke down today | 由于中国和印度拒签 |
| [18:30] | when China and India refused to agree | 减少温室气体排放的协议 |
| [18:33] | to cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. | 全球峰会以失败告终 |
| [18:36] | Ultimately, all the teams fell short. | 最终 所有团队都没有达标 |
| [18:39] | That perhaps is the, the saddest element coming out of this, | 也许这就是由此得出的最可悲的一点 |
| [18:42] | which is the pace of change | 变革的步伐 |
| [18:44] | just doesn’t seem to be in keeping | 好像总跟不上 |
| [18:47] | with the magnitude of the challenge. | 局势的变化 |
| [18:49] | Scientists say that if | 科学家们说如果 |
| [18:51] | this is how our leaders respond in 2015, | 这就是我们的领导人二零一五年时的态度 |
| [18:54] | the entire planet will be at risk. | 那么整个星球危在旦夕 |
| [18:57] | If we continue on the business-as-usual trajectory, | 如果我们这样一如既往的下去 |
| [19:00] | there will be a tipping point that we cannot avert. | 我们将无法避免引爆点 |
| [19:04] | We will indeed drive the car over the cliff. | 这无疑是悬崖飞车 |
| [19:12] | There was a story my mother once told me I’ll never forget. | 我母亲曾给我讲过一个让我永生难忘的故事 |
| [19:16] | You put a frog in a pot of cold water | 把一只青蛙放到一个盛满冷水的锅里 |
| [19:18] | and turn the heat on. | 然后再在下面点着火 |
| [19:20] | The water warms so gradually | 水温在缓慢地上升 |
| [19:22] | that the frog doesn’t notice. | 而青蛙毫无所觉 |
| [19:25] | It never realizes the precise moment | 它永远察觉不到 |
| [19:27] | it’s cooked. | 被煮的确切时刻 |
| [19:29] | The frog will sit there because it’s | 青蛙会一动不动地趴在那儿 |
| [19:31] | not able to detect the small changes in temperature | 因为它觉察不到温度的微妙变化 |
| [19:35] | that are making his life increasingly dangerous. | 而这会使它的生命危险剧增 |
| [19:38] | And we’re in the same sort of situation. | 而我们也处于相同的情形 |
| [19:40] | We’re so adaptable in our evolution | 作为一个物种我们在进化过程中 |
| [19:42] | as a species, | 有着非凡的适应性 |
| [19:43] | an adaptability that’s allowed us to really, | 而这种适应性让我们能够 |
| [19:46] | in a sense, conquer nature and conquer the world. | 在某种意义上 征服自然征服世界 |
| [19:51] | But at this point, that adaptability | 但此时此刻 这种适应性实际上 |
| [19:54] | is actually a real threat to our existence. | 已经成为我们生存的真实威胁 |
| [19:59] | As I grew up, it became | 随着我渐渐长大 我越来越 |
| [20:00] | increasingly clear that we were the frogs. | 清楚地认识到我们就是那些青蛙 |
| [20:05] | After our home was destroyed by the hurricane, | 我们的家被飓风毁于一旦之后 |
| [20:07] | my family moved to San Diego. | 我们全家搬到了圣地亚哥 |
| [20:10] | Maybe because it was | 或许因为这里是我们所能到达的 |
| [20:11] | as far away from Miami as we could get. | 离迈阿密最远的地方 |
| [20:14] | Finally, this evening, saving our seas. | 终于 这个晚上 关于我们的海域 |
| [20:17] | The federal government has | 联邦政府发表了 |
| [20:18] | released a major assessment on the oceans. | 一份重要的海洋评估报告 |
| [20:20] | The news is not good. | 情况并不乐观 |
| [20:25] | It’s going to be tough to drive this summer. | 今夏驾车会相当困难 |
| [20:26] | Gas prices are expected to soar even higher. | 油价预计会飙升得更高 |
| [20:32] | Increased heat speeds up evaporation cycles. | 不断攀升的高温加速了蒸汽循环 |
| [20:35] | In fact, these changes can be seen worldwide… | 实际上 这些变化在世界各地随处可见 |
| [20:37] | Scientists report from the | 北极科学家的报告指出 |
| [20:38] | Arctic the tundra is thawing faster than expected. | 冻土带的融化速度超过预期 |
| [20:45] | The United Nations announced today | 联合国今日宣布 |
| [20:47] | that there are now eight billion people living on Earth. | 地球人口现在已达到八十亿 |
| [21:00] | It’s amazing what you can come to take for normal. | 让人惊奇的是能把这些称为常态 |
| [21:06] | By the time I was in my 20s, | 就在我二十岁那年 |
| [21:08] | shortages and higher prices were just a fact of everyday life. | 物资短缺和高昂物价是生活的常态 |
| [21:15] | After high school, I decided to train as an EMT. | 高中毕业后 我决定成为急诊医务人员 |
| [21:19] | I wanted to be useful, | 我想做个有用之人 |
| [21:20] | and this seemed the perfect kind of work. | 而且这看起来是个很合适的工作 |
| [21:26] | So what else will be normal in 2030? | 在二零三零年还有什么可以称做常态呢 |
| [21:29] | One thing, it will be warmer, | 首先 天气更暖和了 |
| [21:31] | about one and a half degrees Fahrenheit warmer. | 大约要提高一点五华氏度 |
| [21:33] | Enough to dramatically alter | 这已经足够戏剧性地 |
| [21:35] | the planet’s weather and rainfall. | 改变全球的气候和降雨 |
| [21:37] | Canada and Siberia, for example, | 例如 加拿大和西伯利亚 |
| [21:39] | will be wetter and hotter. | 将会更加潮湿闷热 |
| [21:41] | But for much of the world, rain will be scarce. | 但对地球大部分地区来说 降雨将会稀少 |
| [21:43] | And so will its most basic need, water. | 作为最基本需求的水 也是如此 |
| [21:52] | By 2030, two-thirds of the | 到二零三零年 全世界三分之二的 |
| [21:55] | world’s population will be under water stress. | 人口将生活在水资源短缺的巨大压力之下 |
| [21:59] | In Asia, for example, glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau | 例如 在亚洲 青藏高原的广阔冰川 |
| [22:02] | act as a giant reservoir for billions of people. | 作为巨大的水库可以解决上亿人的饮水问题 |
| [22:06] | All over the world, as the climate warms, | 整个世界 随着气候变暖 |
| [22:08] | mountain glaciers are melting at faster and faster rates. | 高山冰川会越来越快地融化 |
| [22:12] | By 2030, 80% of those glaciers may be gone. | 到二零三零年 百分之八十的冰川将消失 |
| [22:16] | If the glaciers disappear, | 一旦冰川消失 |
| [22:18] | much of the food supply will disappear, as well. | 大部分食物的供给也会消失 |
| [22:21] | These glaciers provide | 这些冰川 |
| [22:23] | stream flow in the summer during the dry months | 在夏天旱季可以提供流水 |
| [22:25] | that you can use to irrigate your crops. | 来浇灌人庄稼 |
| [22:27] | When those glaciers are gone, | 当这些冰川消失了 |
| [22:28] | you’ve got a massive drought situation. | 你就会面临大面积干旱情形 |
| [22:31] | In 2030, Africa could be facing extreme | 二零三零年 非洲将面临大面积 |
| [22:34] | and widespread drought. | 严重干旱 |
| [22:36] | Rainfall levels are gonna continue to drop | 非洲的降雨水平 |
| [22:38] | over time in Africa, | 就会逐渐降低 |
| [22:39] | especially in these fragile regions, like the Sahel. | 特别是在一些脆弱地区 如萨赫勒 |
| [22:41] | When the rains fail and people don’t have enough to eat, | 当降雨不够而人们又吃不饱的时候 |
| [22:43] | they often turn to desperate means to survive. | 他们为了生存通常会采取极端手段 |
| [22:47] | And in the US in 2030, many of the massive reservoirs | 在二零三零年的美国 许多起源于 |
| [22:51] | fed by the Colorado River will be drying up. | 科罗拉多河的大型水库将会枯竭 |
| [22:54] | We talk about the Southwest moving into drought | 我们谈论正在干旱的西南部 |
| [22:57] | as, as a way to, to describe what’s gonna happen. | 用于描述将要发生的事情 |
| [22:59] | But technically, the Southwest, it’s not gonna be in drought, | 但技术上说 西南部已经不能称为干旱 |
| [23:02] | it’s gonna become a desert. | 它将会变成沙漠 |
| [23:11] | In San Diego, they were ahead of the game. | 圣地亚哥走在时代的前列 |
| [23:15] | In 2009, | 早在二零零九年 |
| [23:16] | they had started building huge desalination plants. | 他们就开始建造建造大型海水淡化装置 |
| [23:20] | It took 20 years and cost billions of dollars, | 耗资几十亿美元历时二十年完工 |
| [23:22] | but it worked. | 但是这确实有用 |
| [23:24] | The massive plants on the ocean turned saltwater into fresh, | 海上的大量设备把海水转化成淡水 |
| [23:28] | and the city’s water supply was restored. | 于是这个城市的水供应有了保障 |
| [23:32] | 400 miles inland, though, | 而距离四百英里的内陆地区 |
| [23:35] | they were running out. | 水资源正在耗尽 |
| [23:36] | And no one had enough money to build a pipe that long. | 也没有谁有足够的钱去建造如此长的管道 |
| [23:43] | So now, we’re here rationing water | 现在我们这里实行定量配水 |
| [23:46] | I mean, people who are | 我是说 拉斯维加斯的 |
| [23:46] | in Las Vegas are starting to totally panic. | 人们已经开始恐慌了 |
| [23:48] | People in Phoenix are starting to panic, too. | 凤凰城的人也开始恐慌了 |
| [23:50] | When I turn on my tap this morning, | 当我今天早上拧开水龙头的时候 |
| [23:52] | this is what I get out of my tap. | 这就是我接到的东西 |
| [23:56] | Something that will catch people’s attention | 现在吸引人们眼球的就是 |
| [23:59] | is the first city, | 第一城市[指圣地亚哥市] |
| [24:01] | rich city in the world, | 世界上最富有的城市 |
| [24:03] | that just runs out of water. | 他们的水源也枯竭了 |
| [24:05] | Three days after Tucson’s taps ran dry, | 图森断水三天后 |
| [24:07] | its parched residents finally got | 极渴难耐的市民终于等到了 |
| [24:09] | relief when a convoy of National Guard tanker trucks | 由国民警卫队油罐车 |
| [24:11] | carrying one million gallons of water finally arrived. | 护送的一百万加仑的饮用水 |
| [24:15] | Anxious residents lined up to get their allotment. | 焦灼的市民排队领取自己的份额 |
| [24:23] | What happened there scared the whole country. | 那儿发生的一切震惊了整个国家 |
| [24:25] | In San Diego, when the | 在圣地亚哥 当那个 |
| [24:27] | private companies who desalinated our water | 海水淡化私营企业 |
| [24:29] | used Tucson as an excuse and jacked up our water prices, | 以图森事件为由肆意抬高水价时 |
| [24:33] | I decided enough was enough. | 我实在受够了 |
| [24:36] | I went to a rally. | 我参加了游行 |
| [24:41] | A man standing next to me saw me yelling and said, | 站在我身边的一个男人看我叫喊 对我说 |
| [24:44] | “I’m glad you’re on our side.” | “很高兴你站在我们这边” |
| [24:47] | To make a short story even shorter, | 简而言之 |
| [24:50] | we fell in love on the spot. | 我们随即堕入爱河 |
| [24:54] | Two months later, Josh and I were married. | 两个月后 乔希和我终成眷属 |
| [24:57] | A year later, our daughter, Molly, | 一年后 我们的女儿 莫莉 |
| [24:59] | was born, with a head full of red hair. | 出生了 有着一头红发 |
| [25:04] | And the desalination companies, they backed down. | 而那些海水淡化公司 最终屈服了 |
| [25:07] | We had won. | 我们胜利了 |
| [25:12] | Josh and I had friends who, like us, | 乔希和我有一群志同道合的朋友 |
| [25:14] | were determined to reimagine the future. | 立志于重新规划未来 |
| [25:19] | We were all of us optimists. | 我们是一群乐观主义者 |
| [25:21] | Some of us worked on solar plants in the desert. | 有些人准备在沙漠建造太阳能设备 |
| [25:24] | Others tinkered with super efficient cars in their garages. | 其他人则在车库里改装超效能汽车 |
| [25:27] | Still, others designed fantastical cities on their computers. | 还有些人在电脑上设计一座座梦幻般的城市 |
| [25:31] | It was an exciting time to be young. | 这真是一段令人振奋的青春岁月 |
| [25:36] | But it was becoming clear | 但是我们清楚地认识到 |
| [25:38] | that the problems of the world knew no borders. | 这个世界的难题层出不穷 |
| [25:46] | Global population is now approaching nine billion. | 全球人口正在逼近九十亿 |
| [25:50] | Seems unlikely to me that we here | 在我看来根本不可能 |
| [25:52] | in America can sit happily with all of our resources | 我们美国人依靠丰富的资源高枕无忧 |
| [25:55] | while the rest of the world | 而世界其他地方的人 |
| [25:56] | simply goes quietly into that good night. | 仅仅过来安静地和我们道别 |
| [26:00] | Very few people lay down and die. | 没有人愿意坐以待毙 |
| [26:02] | When they recognize that their lives are threatened, | 当他们意识到生命受到威胁 |
| [26:04] | they do whatever it takes. | 他们将会不计一切 |
| [26:08] | Hundreds of thousands of environmental refugees | 几十万遭受饥饿和干旱的难民 |
| [26:10] | fleeing drought and famine are streaming toward Europe. | 正大量涌向欧洲 |
| [26:13] | They will move across borders | 他们将会成群结队 成百万的 |
| [26:15] | by the droves, by the millions. | 穿越边境 |
| [26:17] | And that will be something we’ve never seen before. | 那种阵势是我们见所未见的 |
| [26:20] | And that might be the thing | 那也可能会 |
| [26:21] | that we would find the most difficult to cope with. | 我们最难以应对的问题 |
| [26:26] | From Laredo to Tijuana, | 从拉雷多到蒂华纳 |
| [26:27] | millions of Latin Americans | 上百万的拉丁美洲难民 |
| [26:29] | are massing along the US border. | 大量聚集在美国边境线 |
| [26:31] | You’ll see intense pressure for | 你可以看到人们怀着巨大的压力迁徙 |
| [26:33] | people to move and be on the move from the Caribbean, | 从加勒比 |
| [26:36] | from Latin America, | 从拉美 |
| [26:37] | from Mexico in particular, into the United States. | 尤其从墨西哥 涌入美国 |
| [26:40] | And that’ll put huge stress, I think, | 我认为这将会给 |
| [26:42] | on, on the systems in the United States | 美国各个系统采取应对措施 |
| [26:43] | to try to cope with that. | 带来巨大压力 |
| [26:45] | I can’t imagine the horrors that will take place on the border | 我很难想像 当数百万难民想进入美国时 |
| [26:49] | as millions of refugees try to get into the United States. | 边境处的极度恐慌 |
| [27:04] | I was working the midnight | 那时我正在值夜班 |
| [27:06] | shift when a call came from the border police. | 边防警察打电话过来 |
| [27:10] | “Be careful” Josh said. | 乔希说 当心点 |
| [27:12] | “This doesn’t sound good.” | 听起来不妙 |
| [27:15] | Thousands of refugees had been | 上千名饥渴难耐的难民 |
| [27:16] | arriving at the border desperate for water and food. | 到达边境 |
| [27:21] | Someone had blown a hole through the wall, | 有人扯开了围栏 |
| [27:24] | and thousands of people were streaming through. | 数千人涌了进来 |
| [27:26] | They had called in the border police. | 他们惊动了边防警察 |
| [27:30] | I don’t know how it started, who fired first. | 我不知道怎么开始的 有人先开了枪 |
| [27:34] | But suddenly, the police were shooting into the crowd. | 随即 警察开始向人群扫射 |
| [27:41] | There were people falling, panic everywhere. | 很多人倒下了 周围一片恐慌 |
| [27:46] | Josh heard it on the news. | 乔希从新闻里听到了消息 |
| [27:48] | And how he found me in | 而我一直不知道 |
| [27:49] | the midst of all that chaos I’ll never know. | 他是如何在混乱中找到我的 |
| [28:07] | In San Diego, Josh and Molly and | 在圣地亚哥 乔希 莫莉和我 |
| [28:09] | I took long walks on the beach to look for birds. | 花了相当长的路途沿着海岸寻找鸟类 |
| [28:13] | Over the years, our favorites started to disappear. | 这些年来 我们的最爱正在消失 |
| [28:17] | The worst was the end of the albatross. | 最糟糕的是信天翁已绝迹 |
| [28:22] | These marvelous birds had | 那些非凡的鸟类 |
| [28:24] | finally been done in by fishermen’s long lines. | 最终由于渔船的大面积捕鱼而死 |
| [28:30] | It was a bad omen for the rest of us. | 这对幸存的我们是个恶兆 |
| [28:41] | Probably a third of all species | 到二零一五年 大约三分之一的物种 |
| [28:44] | will be on an inexorable path to extinction by 2015. | 将无法避免灭亡的命运 |
| [28:48] | They will include familiar species, | 其中有我们耳熟能详的 |
| [28:50] | like lions and tigers and bears, | 像狮子老虎和熊 |
| [28:52] | but there will also be huge areas of the planet, | 而地球上很大一部分 |
| [28:56] | which presently are really lovely and beautiful and diverse. | 如今富饶美丽的地区 |
| [29:02] | Those places will have essentially disappeared. | 到时也将彻底地消失 |
| [29:06] | In the history of the Earth, | 在地球的历史中 |
| [29:07] | there have been five mass extinctions, | 经历过五次大灭绝 |
| [29:10] | in which at least half the species on Earth disappeared. | 每次地球上至少一半物种灭绝 |
| [29:12] | They were caused by natural disasters, | 那都是由于自然灾害 |
| [29:14] | massive volcanic eruptions, | 如火山大爆发 |
| [29:16] | rapid climate change, meteors hitting the Earth. | 气候剧变 流星撞击地球 |
| [29:20] | Today, in the 21 st century, we are in the | 如今 处于二十一世纪 |
| [29:22] | midst of what scientists are calling the sixth extinction. | 我们正处于科学家称为的第六次大灭绝时期 |
| [29:26] | And for the first time, | 也这也是首次 |
| [29:28] | it is being caused by a single species, us. | 由我们 这一单一物种导致的 |
| [29:31] | When one species proliferates beyond any other, ultimately, | 最终 当一个物种繁殖得远超其他物种时 |
| [29:35] | it sort of knocks out its | 某种程度上说 它是在摧毁自己的 |
| [29:37] | own life support systems and it collapses. | 生命维持系统 从而也将灭亡 |
| [29:39] | And in a way, that’s what | 某种程度上来说 |
| [29:41] | we’re doing at every level around the world. | 这也是我们每天方方面面正在做的事 |
| [29:47] | Today in 2009, | 在二零零九年的今天 |
| [29:48] | the idea that we could | 对于 |
| [29:50] | do so much damage to our natural environment | 我们肆意践踏自然环境 |
| [29:52] | that it could cause our global civilization to collapse, | 而将导致人类文明的灭亡 |
| [29:55] | may seem farfetched. | 感觉难以置信 |
| [29:57] | Think of all the signs of normalcy. | 回想一下所有的生活点滴 |
| [29:59] | Water is still coming out of the faucet in my kitchen. | 水仍然从我厨房的水龙头中流出 |
| [30:04] | The electricity still turns on. | 电力仍然充足 |
| [30:07] | I buy food at the supermarket. | 我仍然能从超市买到食物 |
| [30:08] | It seems inconceivable | 很难相信 |
| [30:09] | that our modern world could collapse. | 我们的社会将会崩溃 |
| [30:12] | Every society that collapsed thought | 每个灭绝的社会都坚信 |
| [30:14] | it couldn’t happen to them. | 这不会发生在他们身上 |
| [30:16] | The Roman Empire thought it couldn’t happen. | 罗马帝国认为不会发生 |
| [30:18] | The Maya civilization thought it couldn’t happen. | 玛雅文明认为不会发生 |
| [30:21] | The Byzantine Empire thought it couldn’t happen, but it did. | 拜占庭帝国也认为不会 但他们确实灭绝了 |
| [30:25] | And it usually creeps up on you unforeseen. | 它通常会在你毫无所觉中悄然而至 |
| [30:29] | At its peak, the Maya | 在鼎盛时期 玛雅文明 |
| [30:31] | civilization numbered more than 10 million. | 人口超过一千万 |
| [30:34] | They had astronomy. | 他们会天文学 |
| [30:35] | They had the only writing in the new world. | 他们拥有独一无二的书写文字 |
| [30:38] | They had great art. | 他们有伟大的艺术 |
| [30:39] | They were the biggest game in town. | 他们是当时最强大的文明 |
| [30:41] | They are the equivalent of us in their, in their era. | 在他们的年代里 他们地位等同于我们 |
| [30:45] | These city centers were supporting 25,000 to 50,000 people. | 市中心可容纳两万五千至五万人 |
| [30:50] | So, they were very well adapted to their, | 他们已经非常适应于 |
| [30:52] | their surroundings they were able to grow. | 自己所创造的环境 |
| [30:55] | But they grew too much and exhausted their resources. | 但他们增长过快耗尽了资源 |
| [31:00] | Growing population, | 人口的增加也意味着 |
| [31:02] | meaning growing the demands on the land, | 土地需求增加 |
| [31:04] | deforestation and soil erosion, which tied into warfare. | 森林砍伐和水土流失 这些导致战争 |
| [31:09] | There was chronic warfare among the Maya city states. | 玛雅城邦之间有着长期混战 |
| [31:13] | And then, the climate suddenly changed. | 后来 气候骤然改变 |
| [31:17] | There were these series of extended droughts. | 发生了一系列大范围干旱 |
| [31:19] | And those droughts | 那些干旱 |
| [31:20] | just kept hammering away and hammering away. | 不断地蔓延 蔓延 |
| [31:22] | You lose your forest. You lose your soil. | 你失去了森林 你失去了土壤 |
| [31:24] | If you lose your soil, you can’t grow anything. | 如果你失去了土壤你就种不出庄稼 |
| [31:27] | And if it stops raining, then forget about it. | 如果没有降雨 也不会长出庄稼 |
| [31:29] | The endgame for the Maya must have been horrible indeed. | 玛雅文明的末期一定非常糟糕 |
| [31:34] | It’s highly likely there were also periods of starvation. | 极有可能发生了多次饥荒 |
| [31:39] | It’s a truly hideous and ugly way to die. | 这真是一种可怕的死亡方式 |
| [31:47] | The Roman Empire faced | 罗马帝国面对着 |
| [31:48] | many of the same problems that we face today. | 很多和我们目前同样的问题 |
| [31:52] | It was kind of a precursor of our globalized economy. | 有点像我们全球化经济的前体 |
| [31:55] | In just a few short centuries, Rome built an empire | 短短几个世纪 罗马就建立了 |
| [31:58] | that stretched across three continents. | 一个横跨三大洲的帝国 |
| [32:01] | As it expanded, the requirements | 随着帝国扩张 |
| [32:03] | for simply feeding its cities and feeding its army, | 仅仅是居民和军队粮食 |
| [32:06] | it became so large that the | 的需求就变得很庞大 |
| [32:07] | empire couldn’t generate enough food energy, | 帝国无法生产足够的食物能源 |
| [32:09] | enough grain, to adequately meet all its obligations. | 足够的粮食 来充分履行职责 |
| [32:13] | So, there was a constant fiscal crisis and financial crisis. | 所以财政和金融危机不断出现 |
| [32:18] | As resources ran out, their empire collapsed. | 随着资源耗尽 帝国灭亡了 |
| [32:22] | The city of Rome itself went | 罗马城自身的人口 |
| [32:23] | from a million people down to perhaps 30,000, | 从一百万下降到了约三万 |
| [32:26] | and that was the largest city in Western Europe at the time. | 它是当时西欧最大的城市 |
| [32:29] | Civilizations in the past have lost the fight. | 古文明已经输了这场战争 |
| [32:32] | I mean, they, they have | 我是说 |
| [32:33] | collapsed as a result of the inability to deal with | 他们的灭亡是由于他们不能够 |
| [32:36] | several different events going on at once. | 同时处理多种问题 |
| [32:39] | And so, you know, I think the takeaway is that, | 所以 你知道 我认为剥夺就是如此 |
| [32:41] | honestly, we’re not that special. | 坦诚地说 我们并不是特别的 |
| [32:44] | Easter Island, one of the most remote places in the world. | 复活节岛 世界上最偏远的地方之一 |
| [32:51] | It’s hard to imagine that a | 很难想像 |
| [32:53] | civilization once thrived on such a barren island, | 文明曾在如此荒僻的岛上繁荣 |
| [32:56] | but it didn’t always look like this. | 但它不是一直如此 |
| [32:58] | Easter Island used to be | 复活节岛也曾 |
| [33:00] | covered by a forest of dozens of tree species, | 被树木繁茂的森林所覆盖 |
| [33:02] | including the biggest palm tree in the world. | 包括世界上最大的棕榈树 |
| [33:05] | But as their population grew, | 但是随着人口的增长 |
| [33:07] | so too did their demand for wood. | 他们对木材的需求也增大 |
| [33:09] | As they gradually cut down more and more trees, | 由于他们砍的树木越来越多 |
| [33:12] | the trees didn’t grow back rapidly | 树木没有足够的时间 |
| [33:14] | enough to replace the trees that were being cut down. | 来填补被砍掉的空缺 |
| [33:17] | So, some time in the 1600s, the last tree was cut down. | 十七世纪某时 最后一棵树被砍倒了 |
| [33:21] | You saw all of the classic signatures of collapse. | 你可以看到所有经典的灭亡征兆 |
| [33:24] | The population plummeted. There was starvation. | 人口骤减 饥荒 |
| [33:27] | And essentially, they turned to cannibalism. | 本质上来说 他们在自相残杀 |
| [33:29] | The question is, | 问题是 |
| [33:30] | what was that person on Easter Island thinking | 当复活节岛上的人砍倒最后一棵树的时候 |
| [33:33] | when they chopped down the last tree? | 他们在想什么 |
| [33:39] | The pattern is clear. | 灭亡模式显而易见 |
| [33:40] | Civilizations that grow too large and consume too much | 人口过度增长和资源过度消耗 |
| [33:44] | damage their own life support systems. | 破坏了他们自己的生命支持系统 |
| [33:47] | As resources run out, | 随着资源枯竭 |
| [33:49] | they begin to fight each other over what little is left. | 他们为了仅剩的一点资源开始互相残杀 |
| [33:51] | Then, they either starve or leave. | 后来 他们要么饿死要么离开 |
| [33:55] | But in our case, where can we go? | 但是我们呢 我们又能逃去何方 |
| [33:58] | I think Easter Island is the perfect metaphor | 我认为复活节岛是个非常好的比喻 |
| [34:00] | because it’s this small, fragile island | 因为它是个小而脆弱的岛屿 |
| [34:03] | sitting within the Pacific Ocean, it’s very remote, and, | 坐落于偏远的太平洋一隅 |
| [34:08] | and it no longer was able | 它也不再 |
| [34:09] | to sustain the population that lived there. | 适合人类居住 |
| [34:12] | It’s no different than Earth | 地球也是如此 |
| [34:13] | being this small planet in a vast galaxy. | 只是广袤的银河系中一颗小行星 |
| [34:27] | Think about that cartoon movie | 想一下那部关于 |
| [34:28] | that was made about the Beatles music, | 披头士音乐的卡通片 |
| [34:31] | ‘Yellow Submarine.” | 黄色潜水艇 |
| [34:32] | There was a creature in it. | 里面有一种生物 |
| [34:33] | “YELLOW SUBMARINE” Hey, look who’s back. | 黄色潜水艇 看谁回来了 |
| [34:35] | Full speed ahead. | 全速前进 |
| [34:36] | Its head is a funnel that functions as a vacuum cleaner. | 它头上有个吸尘器漏斗 |
| [34:41] | Suddenly, it’s run out of things to point at, | 突然 没有东西可以吸了 |
| [34:42] | there’s nothing left. | 什么都没剩下了 |
| [34:44] | So, it’s looking around for something. | 它环顾四周寻找目标 |
| [34:45] | And finally, it looks down, | 最后 它低头找 |
| [34:48] | sucks itself up. And then, we have a blank screen. | 就把自己吸进去了 接着 只剩下白屏 |
| [34:51] | Here we are. | 这就是我们 |
| [34:53] | The moral of that story, by grabbing everything in sight, | 故事寓意是 如果我们肆意掠夺 |
| [34:57] | we’ll end up destroying ourselves. | 终将自我毁灭 |
| [34:59] | And by 2050, the population is exploding, | 到二零五零年 人口大爆炸 |
| [35:02] | the rainforests are disappearing, | 雨林消失 |
| [35:04] | and nine billion of us competing for ever scarcer resources. | 我们九十亿人争夺有限资源 |
| [35:08] | A bad situation made worse by | 普遍的干旱以及大量难民迁移 |
| [35:10] | widespread drought and huge migrations of people. | 使情况更加恶化 |
| [35:13] | Life is changing for everyone, including Lucy. | 每个人的生活都在改变 包括露西 |
| [35:30] | My parents both got sick the winter of 2050. | 二零五零年冬天我父母同时病倒 |
| [35:33] | It was a horrible flu that year. | 那年流感肆虐 |
| [35:36] | It seemed the viruses | 好像每过一季 |
| [35:37] | were getting worse each passing season. | 病情就愈加严重 |
| [35:40] | I kept them comfortable. | 我尽量使他们舒适 |
| [35:41] | And I’m glad they were at home and together when they died. | 令我感到欣慰的是 他们是在家中携手离世 |
| [35:47] | After that, there was nothing to keep us in San Diego. | 那之后 圣地亚哥也没什么让我们留恋的了 |
| [35:51] | Josh and I decided it was time to leave. | 乔希和我决定是时候离开了 |
| [36:02] | We were excited. | 我们很高兴 |
| [36:03] | Josh had been offered an amazing job | 乔希得到了一份非常好的工作 |
| [36:05] | in New York working on the sea barriers | 是在纽约的一个用来阻挡高涨的海水 |
| [36:07] | designed to protect the cities from the rising seas. | 保护城市的海坝处工作 |
| [36:12] | There wasn’t much room in the truck. | 卡车里空间有限 |
| [36:14] | We took clothes, a few books, and 50 gallons of water. | 我们就带了衣服 一些书 和五十加仑的水 |
| [36:18] | Everything else we left behind. | 其他东西都没带 |
| [36:20] | Gps 2100. | 2100全球定位系统 |
| [36:22] | Please select your destination. | 请选择你的目的地 |
| [36:24] | New York City. | 纽约城 |
| [36:25] | Calculating safest route. | 计算安全的路线 |
| [36:35] | We headed north across the Mojave Desert. | 我们向北穿过莫哈韦沙漠[加利福尼亚州南部] |
| [36:42] | By dusk, we were on the outskirts of Las Vegas | 黄昏 我们到了拉斯维加斯郊外 |
| [36:46] | and greeted by mile after mile of abandoned suburbs, | 迎接我们的是绵延数英里的废弃城郊 |
| [36:50] | and acres of golf courses turned to dust. | 数英亩化为尘土的高尔夫球场 |
| [36:54] | The silence was eerie. | 静得让人毛骨悚然 |
| [36:59] | Well, by 2050, Lake Mead, | 二零五零年 米德湖 |
| [37:01] | one of the great reservoirs of the Southwest | 科罗拉多河西南部伟大的水库之一 |
| [37:05] | on the Colorado River has finally gone dry. | 彻底干涸 |
| [37:10] | There’s not enough water to meet human needs. | 没有足够的水源满足人类需求 |
| [37:15] | People in Las Vegas had depended | 拉斯维加斯的人们 |
| [37:17] | on Lake Mead for almost all their water and power. | 依赖米德湖获得几乎全部的水电 |
| [37:20] | Las Vegas, I would imagine, is gone. | 我想像 拉斯维加斯将不复存在 |
| [37:23] | With a drought like that, you’ve got a city in – in the desert. | 由于干旱 成了沙漠之城 |
| [37:27] | And it’s gonna be really difficult to live there. | 那里将不适合生存 |
| [37:33] | When we got closer to the Strip, | 当我们接近拉斯维加斯大道时 |
| [37:35] | we were lucky to hook up with a convoy headed east. | 我们幸运地碰到了向东的护卫队 |
| [37:39] | Las Vegas was a strange sight. | 拉斯维加斯大变样了 |
| [37:42] | Most of the hotels dark. | 大多宾馆都倒闭了 |
| [37:45] | All those neon lights gone dead. | 霓虹灯也熄灭了 |
| [37:48] | Sin City had pretty much folded. | 罪恶之城没落了 |
| [37:54] | From there, we drove through Arizona. | 接着 我们穿越亚利桑那州 |
| [38:06] | Daybreak. | 黎明时分 |
| [38:07] | Rising out of the desert, we saw something wonderful. | 太阳从沙漠升起 我们看到了壮观的景象 |
| [38:11] | These huge, new solar plants. | 那些巨大的新太阳能发电厂 |
| [38:13] | 50 square miles of reflectors. | 五十平方英里的反光罩 |
| [38:16] | They hadn’t been built soon enough to help Las Vegas, | 他们没有来得及拯救拉斯维加斯 |
| [38:19] | but one day, | 但某天 |
| [38:20] | they were supposed to power the whole West Coast. | 他们将供电给整个西海岸 |
| [38:23] | It was comforting to know. | 这让人稍感慰籍 |
| [38:25] | There’s tremendous possibility there | 在西南部沙漠里 |
| [38:27] | in the desert Southwest. | 有着巨大的可能性 |
| [38:29] | There’s a capacity to produce solar power and, | 那里能够生产太阳能 |
| [38:32] | and move it to where the great | 并输送到 |
| [38:34] | population centers of the United States are. | 美国的人口稠密区 |
| [38:42] | The safest route headed east today is Route 40. | 今天东行安全路线是四十号公路 |
| [38:47] | I think it would be almost impossible to do this journey | 我认为这样的旅行几乎不可能 |
| [38:50] | unless you had some form of | 除非你知道 |
| [38:52] | intelligence as to what areas are lawless or dangerous. | 哪些区域是危险的和无法无天的 |
| [38:56] | I don’t think strangers are gonna be very friendly. | 我不认为陌生人会很友善 |
| [39:14] | By the time we got on to Route 15, we were grimy and tired. | 我们到达十五号公路时又脏又累 |
| [39:18] | The scene in front of us had jolted us out of our daze. | 面前的场景让我们目不暇接 |
| [39:21] | Hundreds of people packed the road. | 成百的人挤满道路 |
| [39:23] | All of them streaming out of the Southwest heading north. | 他们都从西南向北进发 |
| [39:26] | It felt like the Dust Bowl all over again. | 感觉就像沙尘暴卷土重来 |
| [39:30] | Think what it would be like | 想像一下那场景 |
| [39:31] | if we had millions of neighbors to the south | 如果我们上百万的南部同胞 |
| [39:34] | heading north because of, | 由于没有食物和水 |
| [39:36] | they don’t have food and they don’t have water. | 大举向北方进发 |
| [39:39] | They shouted at us as we drove past. | 当我们驶过时他们对我们大喊 |
| [39:42] | Molly was half out of the window, | 莫莉把身子伸出窗外 |
| [39:44] | catching everything with her camera. | 记录这一切 |
| [39:46] | Suddenly, a man grabbed her arm. | 突然 一个男人抓住了她的手臂 |
| [39:49] | He had a gun and pointed it at Molly’s face. | 他拿枪指着莫莉的脸 |
| [39:52] | ‘Get out of the truck right now,” He yelled. | 他喊到 “立刻从车里出来” |
| [39:54] | I’d never been so terrified. | 我从未如此恐惧 |
| [39:56] | But within seconds, | 但刹那间 |
| [39:58] | two men from the convoy pulled their own guns | 两个护卫拔出了枪 |
| [40:00] | and the man melted back into the crowd. | 那男人消失在人群里 |
| [40:03] | We knew now just | 我们现在知道 |
| [40:04] | how dangerous the border regions had become | 边境已经非常危险 |
| [40:07] | and how lucky we were to be headed east. | 我们向东走是多么幸运 |
| [40:15] | Just as people were migrating, so too were the bugs. | 就像人类一样 害虫开始迁徙 |
| [40:21] | In Oklahoma, acres and acres of corn were threatened. | 在俄克拉荷马州 成片的玉米受到威胁 |
| [40:25] | To the degree that all ecosystems | 二零五零年 整个生态系统 |
| [40:28] | are extremely stressed by 2050, pests will flourish. | 将不堪重负 虫害肆虐 |
| [40:32] | There’s an arms race between | 在抗虫作物培育 |
| [40:34] | breeding crops that are resistant to various pests | 和害虫之间 |
| [40:38] | and the pests themselves, | 展开了一场激烈竞赛 |
| [40:39] | because to the degree that we simplified our food system, | 因为某种程度上我们简化了自己的食物体系 |
| [40:43] | we’ve also made it massively vulnerable. | 我们也让它们过于脆弱 |
| [40:46] | For decades, this had been predicted. | 几十年来 这早已预料到 |
| [40:49] | These giant farms, which supplied | 供给全球粮食的大型农场 |
| [40:50] | so much of the world’s food, were easy prey. | 极易受到侵害 |
| [40:54] | People get their seeds from single… | 人们只从一个或几个 |
| [40:55] | or just a few manufacturers, | 制造商那里获得种子 |
| [40:58] | and they’re genetically very, very similar. | 而它们在遗传上非常相似 |
| [41:00] | So, if in fact an agent were to… | 因此 假如出现一种寄生菌 |
| [41:02] | come onto the scene that was capable of infecting one, | 能够感染一种作物 |
| [41:05] | it would rapidly spread. | 那么它就会迅速蔓延 |
| [41:09] | Halfway through Kansas, | 在穿越堪萨斯州的半路上 |
| [41:11] | we split off from the convoy. | 我们和护航队分开了 |
| [41:13] | They were headed north to Canada. | 他们朝北驶向加拿大 |
| [41:16] | We went east to Greensburg, | 我们向西驶向堪萨斯州的格林伯格 |
| [41:17] | Kansas, leaving the devastation behind. | 远离那场灾难 |
| [41:22] | Welcome to the Greensburg Visitor Center. | 欢迎来到格林伯格旅客中心 |
| [41:26] | In 2007, a tornado destroyed our town. | 二零零七年 龙卷风摧毁了我们的家园 |
| [41:30] | Out of the rubble came a dream. | 颓垣残壁中我们重筑梦想 |
| [41:33] | A town that was completely destroyed by a tornado | 一个曾被龙卷风彻底摧毁的城镇 |
| [41:36] | is being rebuilt as a global example | 正被重建为全部利用清洁能源 |
| [41:40] | of how clean energy can power an entire community, | 供电的全球楷模 |
| [41:42] | how it can bring jobs and businesses… | 这也会拉动就业 提供商机 |
| [41:44] | This was a wonderful place, completely self-sustaining. | 这是个很棒的城市 完全自给自足 |
| [41:48] | They had been one of the first, | 他们是先行者之一 |
| [41:50] | and they knew what they were doing. | 他们目标明确 |
| [41:52] | They got their power from the wind and sun, | 他们利用风能和太阳能 |
| [41:55] | their water from the rain, | 他们的水源来自于降雨 |
| [41:57] | and they grew everything they ate. | 耕种一切所需的食物 |
| [42:03] | Feeling a lot better, we hot seated it the rest of the way. | 感觉好点之后 我们重新上路 |
| [42:09] | Compared to the Southwest, the fields were green and fertile. | 跟西南部相比 这里的田地茂盛而富饶 |
| [42:14] | We saw some communities like Greensburg. | 我们看到一些像格林伯格那样的城镇 |
| [42:17] | We wished there were more. | 我们希望会有更多这样的城镇 |
| [42:20] | The closer we get to the end of our journey, the better we felt. | 越接近旅途的尾声 我们的心情也就越好 |
| [42:28] | The next day, we hit the outskirts of New York City. | 第二天 我们到了纽约市郊区 |
| [42:31] | New York City is engaged | 纽约正在进行着 |
| [42:32] | in the greatest urban experiment of our time. | 当今最伟大的城市实验 |
| [42:35] | Skyscrapers that grow their own food, | 从可以种植食物的摩天大楼 |
| [42:37] | to an all-electric vehicle fleet, | 到完全电动的汽车队伍 |
| [42:39] | to clean and tranquil parks. | 到整洁安静的公园 |
| [42:41] | Inspired leaders and creative minds… | 激昂的领导者和勇于创新的人们 |
| [42:44] | are working together to create an urban paradise. | 正携手合作 建造城市乐园 |
| [42:47] | I looked across the George Washington | 我望向地平线处的乔治华盛顿大桥 |
| [42:49] | Bridge at the skyline and felt a surge of hope, | 内心升起无限希望 |
| [42:52] | but underneath ran a trickle of worry. | 但同时也感到一丝隐忧 |
| [42:55] | With all we had seen, | 我们虽然已经见证了许多 |
| [42:57] | maybe we had seen nothing yet. | 但或许我们对未来毫无所知 |
| [43:01] | By the middle of the century, | 到了本世纪中叶 |
| [43:02] | I thought I’d seen it all. | 我以为我已经见证了一切 |
| [43:04] | Storms, migrations, | 洪水泛滥 难民迁移 |
| [43:07] | and droughts that had destroyed whole cities. | 以及让城市毁灭的的干旱 |
| [43:10] | But I had also seen so much more. | 但我看到的并不仅限于此 |
| [43:12] | Brilliant people everywhere… | 各方有识之士 |
| [43:14] | were working furiously to change our future. | 正竭尽全力 试图改变未来 |
| [43:17] | I had a family, | 我有自己的家庭 |
| [43:19] | and together, I thought… | 只要齐心合力 我认为 |
| [43:20] | we might be equal to whatever came out way, | 我们可以经受住任何困难 |
| [43:23] | but I had no idea of what the future would hold. | 我并不清楚未来会怎样 |
| [43:30] | It’s a new world. | 这是个全新的世界 |
| [43:31] | And not a better one, as we catch up with Lucy, | 正如我们通过虚拟角色露西看到的 |
| [43:34] | our fictional storyteller. | 它并不美好 |
| [43:35] | The year is 2060, past mid-century… | 二零六零年 半个世纪过去了 |
| [43:39] | and into middle age for Lucy. | 露西也步入中年 |
| [43:40] | At 51 , she has grown up in a world of soaring population, | 五十一岁的她 已经经历过人口爆炸 |
| [43:44] | dwindling resources… | 资源短缺 |
| [43:45] | and intense climate change. | 以及剧烈的气候变幻 |
| [43:47] | The worst case scenario imagined by some experts is playing out. | 如专家所料 最糟糕的情况发生了 |
| [43:52] | But there are signs of hope. | 但我们仍有希望 |
| [43:54] | A growing global movement… | 很多纽约这样的大城市 |
| [43:56] | led by cities like New York. | 正在发起全球性行动 |
| [44:05] | New York is probably the… | 纽约可能是 |
| [44:07] | most geographically favored city in America. | 美国地理最优越的城市 |
| [44:12] | Great port. | 优美的海港 |
| [44:13] | Rich fisheries around it. | 富饶的渔港环绕周围 |
| [44:15] | This wonderful river that… | 这条美丽的河流 |
| [44:16] | allows transport and access to great farmland. | 提供了通往农业区的入口和渠道 |
| [44:21] | It’s a center of the arts. | 这里是艺术中心 |
| [44:23] | It’s been a center of finance. | 也是金融中心 |
| [44:25] | I think it will continue to be so. | 我认为它将会一直独占鳌头 |
| [44:32] | After what we had been through, | 在经历了众多磨难之后 |
| [44:34] | New York was a fresh start. | 纽约城是一个新的开端 |
| [44:39] | The city was full of hope and energy and promise. | 这里充满了希望 激情和承诺 |
| [44:44] | You’d walk down the streets and… | 你走在街上 |
| [44:45] | meet each other’s eyes | 可以看到彼此的双眼 |
| [44:47] | and see a sense of purpose. | 以及从眼中流露出的坚定 |
| [44:49] | It was a great place to be a part of back then. | 这是个能够让人融入其中的好地方 |
| [44:52] | The first years we were there | 在那生活的头几年 |
| [44:53] | were the best of our lives. | 是我们生命中最美好的时光 |
| [44:56] | Josh was working as an engineer on the Great Barrier Project. | 乔希是大堤坝工程的工程师 |
| [45:00] | I was at Bellevue Hospital, | 我在贝尔维尤医院上班 |
| [45:02] | a historic institution already more than 300 years old. | 那是一家已经有三百多年历史的著名机构 |
| [45:08] | The building we lived in was green in every sense of the word. | 我们住的大楼是名副其实的环保建筑 |
| [45:12] | And Molly worked in the gardens that grew our food. | 莫莉在花园中种植食物 |
| [45:15] | They were a part of the building itself. | 它们也是大楼的一部分 |
| [45:19] | You’re going to see greenhouses, multistory greenhouses. | 你会看到温室 多层的 |
| [45:22] | And each floor will be growing, | 每一层都会种上 |
| [45:24] | you know, carrots and potatoes, etcetera. | 你知道的 胡萝卜和土豆等等 |
| [45:26] | And that will be just considered normal. | 大家对此习以为常 |
| [45:28] | The building supplied not just our food, | 大楼不仅能生长食物 |
| [45:31] | but most of our own energy. | 还提供大部分生活所需能源 |
| [45:33] | Instead of having solar panels, big heavy bulky things, | 取代那些庞大笨重的太阳能板 |
| [45:37] | we can just put this thin film on rooftops, | 我们只要将这些薄膜贴在屋顶 |
| [45:41] | on window panes and generate electricity that way. | 贴在窗玻璃上就能收集太阳能 |
| [45:47] | I rode my bike to work every day, a mere 30 blocks. | 我每天骑行大概三十个街区去上班 |
| [45:50] | We had designated bicycle lanes. | 有专门的自行车道 |
| [45:53] | The traffic was manageable, | 交通情况良好 |
| [45:54] | and you could breathe the air. | 并且可以呼吸到新鲜空气 |
| [45:56] | All the vehicles were electric. | 车辆都是电能发动的 |
| [45:59] | You hook your car up to a mega transport system. | 你可以把车挂在大型运输系统上 |
| [46:03] | It will move you a good bit… | 它会带你走一段路 |
| [46:04] | of the distance to your final destination. | 以便你更快到达目的地 |
| [46:06] | Kind of a train of cars. | 就像是载车型火车 |
| [46:08] | And then you get disconnected from the mass combination transit… | 然后你可以脱离运输链 |
| [46:12] | and drive the last little bit yourself. | 开车走完最后的一小段路 |
| [46:16] | Molly fell in love as quickly as her parents had. | 莫莉也像她的父母一样很快堕入爱河 |
| [46:19] | She married George, | 她嫁给了乔治 |
| [46:20] | who was studying to become a botanist. | 他正在学习成为一名植物学家 |
| [46:25] | A year later, my grandson Daniel was born. | 一年之后 我的孙子丹尼尔出生了 |
| [46:29] | And a lovelier child I had never seen. | 我从没见过这么可爱的小孩子 |
| [46:34] | It was a happy time. | 这是一段快乐的时光 |
| [46:37] | And when Molly told me they… | 直到莫莉告诉我 |
| [46:38] | were moving upstate to work on a real farm, | 他们要去北边的农场工作 |
| [46:41] | Josh and I understood. | 乔希和我明白 |
| [46:43] | It had always been their dream. | 这一直是他们的梦想 |
| [46:49] | The city was getting a lot of attention. | 这座城市吸引了很多人的注意 |
| [46:52] | And money flowed in, both private and public. | 私人的和公共的资金不断涌入 |
| [46:55] | The biggest and maybe the… | 最大型或许也是最重要的 |
| [46:56] | most important project was my husband Josh’s. | 就是我丈夫乔希也参与其中的工程 |
| [47:00] | Since without the barriers, | 一旦没有堤坝 |
| [47:01] | the city was at risk. | 这座城市就会陷入危险 |
| [47:06] | It would be the biggest civil engineering project in US history. | 这将会是美国历史上最大的土木工程 |
| [47:10] | Be comparable to putting man on the moon. | 可以与人类登月相媲美 |
| [47:13] | The project had been under way for years, | 工程已经进行了好几年 |
| [47:15] | and those who worked on it had a tremendous sense of pride. | 参与工程的人都感到无比的自豪 |
| [47:20] | There was three barriers going up. | 他们一共要建造三座堤坝 |
| [47:22] | One at the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge, | 一座建在费雷泽诺桥 |
| [47:26] | one at the top of the East River. | 一座建在东河起点 |
| [47:28] | And one in Staten Island at Baton Hills. | 另一座建在巴顿希尔斯的斯塔腾岛上 |
| [47:31] | You could see them rising a little every day. | 你可以看到它们正在一点点建起来 |
| [47:37] | Sea level was rising. | 海平面正在上升 |
| [47:39] | And without the barriers, | 如果没有这些堤坝 |
| [47:41] | big storms would flood the city. | 大风暴会把城市淹没 |
| [47:45] | I think it would be like in medieval times, | 我觉得这就像中世纪一样 |
| [47:46] | people building a beautiful huge cathedral. | 人们要建造一座美丽宏伟的大教堂 |
| [47:49] | Took generations to build. | 需要几代人的努力 |
| [47:51] | And there was a great sense of purpose, | 这承载着巨大的使命感 |
| [47:52] | and gave purpose and meaning to life. | 也给予了生活的目标和意义 |
| [47:56] | The project drew thousands… | 工程吸引了数千人 |
| [47:58] | of people into the city looking for work. | 来这里寻找工作 |
| [48:01] | New York City was then, as it had always been, | 纽约一如既往地成为 |
| [48:04] | a beacon of hope. | 指引希望的明灯 |
| [48:07] | New York, it will be a magnet… | 纽约将吸引越来越多的人 |
| [48:09] | as any viable city will be a magnet. | 正如所有存活下来的城市一样 |
| [48:14] | These cities where people come to flee… | 人们逃向这些城市 |
| [48:17] | become petri dishes for diseases… | 使得这里成为疾病的温床 |
| [48:19] | and new diseases and resistant forms of disease. | 也孕育了新的和耐药性的疾病 |
| [48:26] | There are a number of infectious diseases | 许多热带和亚热带地区的 |
| [48:29] | that are currently confined to tropical and subtropical areas. | 传染性疾病 |
| [48:32] | They’re likely to spread into temperate zones. | 它们很可能会向温带地区蔓延 |
| [48:35] | And this is something that I’m very concerned about. | 这让我非常担忧 |
| [48:39] | Keeping New York safe from disease was crucial. | 让纽约远离疾病十分重要 |
| [48:42] | And Bellevue was busy. | 贝尔维尤医院十分繁忙 |
| [48:45] | I didn’t feel as tired at end of the day as I might have. | 每天工作结束时我却没有感到应有的疲劳 |
| [48:48] | We were doing important work. | 我们的工作非常重要 |
| [48:51] | Keeping a close eye on any new diseases. | 我们要密切关注任何新型疾病 |
| [48:57] | I remember the night I was… | 我记得有一晚 |
| [48:58] | called to the worker’s camps in Flushing. | 我被派到了法拉盛的工人聚居地 |
| [49:02] | A young Ecuadorian family had just arrived in New York. | 一个厄瓜多尔年轻家庭刚来到纽约 |
| [49:06] | And they all had high fevers. | 他们都在发高烧 |
| [49:10] | And blisters on their hands and feet. | 手脚都起满了水疱 |
| [49:14] | We sprung into action immediately, closed off the neighborhood, | 我们迅速采取行动 隔离这一区域 |
| [49:18] | and called in the CDC. | 请求疾病控制中心支援 |
| [49:20] | They knew right away they were looking at a new virus. | 他们立刻判定这是一种新型病毒 |
| [49:25] | We set up a mobile clinic at the camps, | 我们在聚居区建起了临时诊所 |
| [49:27] | where we treated dozens of workers and their families. | 在那里对许多个工人及其家人进行治疗 |
| [49:31] | Everyone recovered. | 所有人都康复了 |
| [49:34] | And the disease was contained. | 疾病得到了控制 |
| [49:44] | Imagine now the year 2070. | 请想像一下在二零七零年 |
| [49:46] | Things are in danger of unraveling. | 一切都濒临崩溃 |
| [49:49] | Sea levels have risen nearly three feet, | 海平面上升了近三英尺 |
| [49:51] | redrawing the map of the world. Island nations have disappeared. | 这改写了世界版图 许多岛国沉入海中 |
| [49:55] | Much of Bangladesh reclaimed by the sea. | 孟加拉国的大部分地区被海水淹没 |
| [49:57] | Some of California’s famous beaches gone. | 加利福尼亚一些著名海滩也消失了 |
| [50:00] | The Florida Everglades, under water. | 佛罗里达大沼泽地 沉入水中 |
| [50:03] | Now, the richest countries… | 如今 那些最富有的国家 |
| [50:04] | are being forced to come up with innovative… | 正被逼无奈 采取创新 |
| [50:06] | and expensive solutions. | 而又昂贵的解决方法 |
| [50:08] | Lucy’s husband, Josh, is one of the leaders. | 露西的丈夫乔希 就是领导人之一 |
| [50:20] | Josh was an engineer on the Great Barrier Project. | 乔希是大堤坝工程的工程师 |
| [50:25] | After 30 years in the making, it was nearing completion. | 经过三十年的建造 堤坝即将完工 |
| [50:29] | Within a few months, | 几个月之后 |
| [50:30] | they would be testing the massive gates. | 他们将会对防洪大闸门进行测试 |
| [50:34] | If I was the engineer in charge, | 如果我是主管工程师 |
| [50:36] | I would be very nervous. | 我一定会非常紧张 |
| [50:37] | But you would have practice runs. | 但你已经进行了多次演练 |
| [50:39] | And during nice weather, you would say, | 比如天气好时 你会说 |
| [50:41] | all right, let’s close the gates today… | 好吧 今天把闸门关了 |
| [50:43] | and make sure everything’s working right, | 保证一切正常运作 |
| [50:44] | it’s not going to jam up. | 不会出现任何故障 |
| [50:47] | Josh was worried about something else, too. | 乔希也在担心别的方面 |
| [50:50] | New York City’s barriers, like others… | 纽约的堤坝 |
| [50:52] | around the world, had been built on the assumption | 也像世界上其它堤坝一样 |
| [50:55] | that sea level rise would be gradual. | 认为海平面只会缓慢上升 |
| [50:58] | But it was becoming clear that might not be the case. | 但人们开始认识到事实或许并非如此 |
| [51:04] | Scientists say they are detecting a massive spike | 科学家说他们检测到 |
| [51:06] | in the level of methane in the atmosphere. | 大气甲烷量达到一个惊人的峰值 |
| [51:09] | Climate in general doesn’t change smoothly the way, | 总体上气候并不是在平稳改变 |
| [51:12] | you know, we’re used to seeing projections from climate models. | 你知道 我们习惯于通过气候模型预测天气 |
| [51:15] | We find that the transitions from warm to cold or cold to warm, | 我们会发现冷暖的交替 |
| [51:20] | some of those transitions can be really, really abrupt. | 但是其中一些交替极其突然 |
| [51:24] | Abrupt meaning within the time scale of a decade, | 突然的尺度是指十年 |
| [51:27] | or sometimes even less than a decade. | 有时甚至少于十年 |
| [51:29] | We knew there were certain… | 我们知道哪些事件 |
| [51:30] | things that could rapidly turn up the heat. | 能够引起气温急速上升 |
| [51:33] | But we didn’t know what | 但发生之前 |
| [51:34] | that tipping point would be until it happened. | 我们并不知道引爆点在哪里 |
| [51:39] | Maybe the tipping point is you… | 引爆点或许就是 |
| [51:41] | heat up the tundra and the permafrost so much | 当全球变暖使得苔原和冻土层消融 |
| [51:43] | that there’s a huge burp of methane | 以致于北部土壤里的 |
| [51:45] | and carbon dioxide out of those northern soils. | 甲烷和二氧化碳含量急剧上升的时候 |
| [51:48] | Methane is a big worry in my mind | 甲烷是我心头的一大隐忧 |
| [51:50] | because it’s some 20 to 30 times more potent than CO2. | 因为它的危害是二氧化碳的二三十倍 |
| [51:55] | An enormous reservoir of methane, | 动植物分解 |
| [51:57] | produced by decomposing plants and animals, | 产生的大量甲烷 |
| [52:00] | lies buried beneath the frozen arctic tundra. | 被掩埋在北极土层下面 |
| [52:03] | It has been there since the Ice Age. | 冰河世纪以后就一直在那里 |
| [52:06] | If the tundra thaws and a large quantity of the gas is released, | 如果冻土融化 大量的气体会被释放 |
| [52:10] | global temperatures would soar. | 全球气温将会飙升 |
| [52:21] | This is a bit like a light switch. | 这原理类似于电灯开关 |
| [52:23] | You push the light switch a little bit and nothing happens. | 如果轻轻地一碰 什么都没发生 |
| [52:26] | You push a little bit more and nothing happens. | 如果再推一推 什么也没发生 |
| [52:28] | Then you push it a little more… | 如果再多推进一点 |
| [52:31] | and it flips completely to a new state. | 它就会弹到全新的状态 |
| [52:33] | The methane emanating from… | 从北极释放出的甲烷 |
| [52:34] | the arctic could raise temperatures worldwide. | 会引起全球气温上升 |
| [52:36] | A panel of experts is | 专家组正在开会 |
| [52:37] | convening to recalculate how warm the planet… | 重新计算地球的温度 |
| [52:39] | drastically raise global temperatures… | 将会飙升到什么程度 |
| [52:42] | This is what specialists | 这就是专家们所说的 |
| [52:43] | call a nonlinear flip or nonlinear change. | 非线性跃动或非线性改变 |
| [52:46] | When that happens, | 当这些真正发生时 |
| [52:48] | we don’t know what the consequences will be. | 我们不知道结果如何 |
| [52:52] | Spiking global temperatures… | 到达峰值的全球气温 |
| [52:53] | are wreaking havoc with the Greenland ice sheet. | 正在破坏格陵兰冰原 |
| [52:57] | Some fear that the colossal sheet is on the verge of collapse. | 有人担心巨大的冰原已经濒临倒塌 |
| [53:05] | Unless drastic measures are taken, | 除非采取强硬措施 |
| [53:07] | low lying coastal cities around the world… | 全球地势较低的沿海城市 |
| [53:09] | could expect to see disastrous flooding. | 将会面临灾难性的洪水灾害 |
| [53:11] | Citizens are demanding their governments respond | 人们正要求其政府 |
| [53:13] | to the impending temperature… | 对迫在眉睫的气温变化采取措施 |
| [53:15] | The Pentagon today held | 五角大楼今天举行非公开会议 |
| [53:16] | closed door meetings to discuss climate change. | 商讨应对气候改变的措施 |
| [53:19] | Our top story tonight, | 我们今晚关注的焦点 |
| [53:21] | the President is announcing the cosmic shield project… | 就是总统宣布的宇宙盾计划 |
| [53:24] | which aims to halt the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet. | 这致力于阻止格陵兰冰原融化 |
| [53:28] | Imagine that you are the president of the United States, | 假设你是美国总统 |
| [53:31] | and you have word that Greenland… | 你得知格陵兰冰原 |
| [53:33] | is going to collapse in the next ten years, | 将会在十年之后瓦解 |
| [53:35] | adding seven meters to sea level. | 使海平面上升七米 |
| [53:37] | I’m not saying that is happening today. | 我并不是说这些真的发生 |
| [53:39] | I’m saying imagine that were to happen, | 我是说假设它将会发生 |
| [53:42] | and you were told that technology exists to stop it. | 有人告诉你有技术可以阻止 |
| [53:46] | Wouldn’t you be tempted to use it? | 你难道不会采纳吗 |
| [53:58] | It didn’t take long for the world to agree. | 很快全世界都响应了 |
| [54:00] | A technology existed that could stop the ice sheets from melting. | 一项技术能够阻止冰原融化 |
| [54:03] | It should be used. | 那就应该被采用 |
| [54:09] | Hundreds of jets from all around… | 来自世界各国的几百架喷气式飞机 |
| [54:11] | the world were spraying a mist of sulfur dioxide | 正在向大气中 |
| [54:13] | into the atmosphere. | 喷射二氧化硫薄雾 |
| [54:17] | The gas would form particles | 气体会形成微粒 |
| [54:19] | which would shade the Earth and temporarily cool it. | 能暂时为地球遮挡阳光 使其降温 |
| [54:24] | This is your solution of last resort. | 这就是你所能采取的最后手段 |
| [54:26] | You say all bets are off, we are just going to intervene | 你说我们全盘皆输 只能不计后果地 |
| [54:29] | in this system with reckless abandon. | 干扰这个系统 |
| [54:33] | For a year, there were these spectacular sunsets. | 这一年 我们看到了壮丽的夕阳 |
| [54:39] | But what are the other consequences of those things? | 但这些东西还会产生什么影响呢 |
| [54:43] | Maybe it would cool the Earth, maybe it would cool it too much. | 它可能让地球降温 也可能降得太厉害 |
| [54:46] | That might be a disaster in the opposite direction. | 要真是这样 那就是另一个灾难 |
| [54:49] | Maybe it would cause some other | 它可能会引发其它一些 |
| [54:50] | environmental problem that we don’t foresee today. | 我们现今无法预见的环境问题 |
| [54:54] | The Earth cooled. | 地球降温了 |
| [54:56] | But that was the least of it. | 但这已无关紧要 |
| [54:58] | Tonight in Washington, there’s | 今晚 在华盛顿 |
| [54:59] | debate on whether to follow China and Great Britain | 有一场关于是否该效仿中英 |
| [55:02] | and cease flying cosmic shield missions. | 停止宇宙盾计划的争论 |
| [55:06] | We’ve learned that in all aspects of engineering, | 我们意识到 工程的各个方面 |
| [55:09] | there are unintended consequences. | 都存在计划外的影响 |
| [55:11] | The Surgeon General testified before Congress today | 今天 卫生局局长在国会前证实 |
| [55:14] | on the health effects of further… | 这一气体对人体有健康隐患 |
| [55:16] | The cloud was burning off the ozone layer. | 这些薄雾正在摧毁臭氧层 |
| [55:18] | Once that was gone, every living | 臭氧一旦耗尽 所有生物 |
| [55:20] | creature would be exposed to a massive dose of radiation. | 都将暴露于大量辐射之下 |
| [55:25] | The experiment was halted. | 试验中止了 |
| [55:31] | Once they stopped spraying the gas, | 一旦他们停止喷洒这种气体 |
| [55:33] | the ice sheets continued to melt, | 冰川继续融化 |
| [55:35] | but now at a quicker pace. | 并且是以更快的速度 |
| [55:36] | Sea level rise would soon be measured in feet, not inches. | 海平面上升不久就开始以英尺计 而非英寸 |
| [55:40] | If you end up with several meters of sea level rise, | 如果海平面上升了几米 |
| [55:44] | you change life as we know it. | 就像我们知道的 生活就会发生剧变 |
| [55:48] | In New York, watchdog groups are | 在纽约 监察小组认为 |
| [55:50] | now suggesting storm surge barriers may be too low. | 现今的风暴潮屏障可能太低了 |
| [55:54] | Josh and the other engineers were working around the clock | 乔希和其他工程师日以继夜地工作 |
| [55:56] | to try to build the barriers even higher. | 试图把屏障建得更高 |
| [55:59] | But we all knew we were in a race against time. | 但我们都知道 这是在和时间赛跑 |
| [56:06] | Society is not set up to deal with rapid sea level rise. | 社会并没有准备好应对急速的海平面上升 |
| [56:10] | It would be a catastrophe | 这将是一场我们 |
| [56:12] | of a magnitude we’ve never experienced. | 从未经历过的劫难 |
| [56:15] | One of our political leaders said not too long ago | 不久前 我们的一位政要说过 |
| [56:18] | that the American way of life is non-negotiable. | 美国的生活方式是不会改变的 |
| [56:21] | We’re going to discover the hard way that when you don’t | 我们会发现 如果你不愿向 |
| [56:25] | negotiate the circumstances that are sent to you by the universe. | 自然赋予你的环境妥协 生活将举步维艰 |
| [56:30] | You automatically get | 你会自动被分配一个 |
| [56:31] | assigned a new negotiating partner named reality, | 谈判搭档 叫现实 |
| [56:35] | and then it will negotiate for you. | 它会为你谈判 |
| [56:36] | You don’t even have to be in the room. | 你甚至都不用出现在会议室 |
| [56:45] | A vicious nor’easter is headed up the East Coast. | 一股强劲的东北风暴正往东部海岸靠近 |
| [56:48] | It is expected to hit New York on the high tide this afternoon. | 预计今天下午高潮会袭击纽约 |
| [56:52] | Storm surge could be over 20 feet. | 风暴潮最高可达二十英尺 |
| [56:57] | As the storm approached, | 随着风暴逼近 |
| [56:58] | the engineers started closing the entire bay wall. | 工程师们开始关闭整个海湾壁垒 |
| [57:03] | It absolutely had to work or the city would be devastated. | 它必须起作用 否则整个城市会被摧毁 |
| [57:08] | It was terrifying. | 这太可怕了 |
| [57:11] | Then the winds picked up and a gate got stuck. | 后来风力增强 一个闸门被卡住了 |
| [57:15] | That’s a nightmare scenario, getting stuck halfway shut. | 门关到一半被卡住了 这简直就是噩梦 |
| [57:19] | Because the water will pour in and flood the city. | 海水会奔涌而进 淹落整个城市 |
| [57:23] | A team was assembled to manually close the gate. | 一队人马打算手动关上闸门 |
| [57:26] | They would have to go out into the harbor by boat. | 他们得乘船去海港 |
| [57:31] | I asked Josh not to go. | 我要乔希别去 |
| [57:33] | I begged him to stay safe with me. | 我请求他和我安全地待在一起 |
| [57:37] | But this was his project. | 但这是他的工程 |
| [57:39] | He had to see it through. | 他必须去解决 |
| [57:50] | Cities abandoned. | 城市被遗弃了 |
| [57:52] | Large parts of America suffering from drought. | 美国大部分地区正遭受旱灾 |
| [57:56] | The possible collapse of civilization. | 人类文明有可能崩溃 |
| [58:00] | The worst case scenario in tonight’s special broadcast | 今晚的特别报告所描绘地球的最坏情形 |
| [58:03] | sounds like something out a science fiction movie, | 感觉只会在科幻电影中出现 |
| [58:06] | but it is based on the work of | 但这是基于世界顶尖科学家 |
| [58:07] | some of the world’s foremost scientists and thinkers. | 和思想家的研究成果所做的推测 |
| [58:10] | If you want to learn more about how we developed our ideas, | 想对我们的研究了解更多 |
| [58:13] | go to abcnews.Com and click on Earth 2100. | 登陆美国广播news.com 点击地球 2100 |
| [58:17] | There you’ll find an annotated script of the entire program. | 你会找到我们整个节目带注释的脚本 |
| [58:22] | For each scenario portrayed in our broadcast, | 节目中所描绘的每个场景 |
| [58:24] | we have included the expert quotes | 我们附有专家引言和事实 |
| [58:26] | and facts on which we base this vision of the future. | 来支持我们对未来的假设 |
| [58:29] | All ecosystems are extremely stressed by 2050. | 到2050年所有的生态系统将极度负荷 |
| [58:33] | You will also be able to | 你还能观赏到 |
| [58:35] | view expanded sections of selected interviews. | 部分访谈的完全版本 |
| [58:45] | Preliminary reports that one of the gates in the Great Barrier | 初步报告显示大屏障中的一个闸门 |
| [58:48] | has failed to close. | 无法关闭 |
| [58:49] | We’re awaiting confirmation from the mayor’s office. | 我们在等待市长办公室给予确认 |
| [58:51] | It was high tide when the storm hit. | 风暴袭击时海水正处涨潮 |
| [58:53] | Flooding in subway tunnels throughout… | 地铁隧道被泛滥洪水淹没 |
| [58:55] | Four, five, and six trains are affected. | 四 五 六号列车受影响 |
| [58:56] | The streets were filling with water. | 街道上积满了水 |
| [58:58] | The mayor has made the decision to evacuate City Hall. | 市长决定撤离市政厅 |
| [59:01] | Something had gone terribly wrong. | 出大麻烦了 |
| [59:03] | Seeing truly catastrophic flooding. | 目睹洪水成灾 |
| [59:05] | The tide comes in, and on top of it, surge. | 浪潮一贯而入 海浪汹涌 |
| [59:08] | The Holland and Lincoln Tunnels are filling with seawater… | 荷兰和林肯隧道里充满海水 |
| [59:10] | When New York began to flood, it would be total chaos. | 如果洪灾漫延到纽约 那将一片混乱 |
| [59:13] | There’s an evacuation order in effect for… | 现在有一个疏散命令 |
| [59:15] | The Office of Emergency Management says we have to evacuate. | 应急管理办公室告之我们必须撤离 |
| [59:19] | We’ve got a problem. | 我们遇到了大麻烦 |
| [59:20] | The subway is full of seawater and it will shut down. | 地铁站注满了海水 被迫关闭 |
| [59:24] | What do people do? | 人们该怎么办 |
| [59:25] | Authorities are now telling anyone still in the city | 当局提醒仍在城里的民众 |
| [59:28] | to remain calm and stay inside. | 不要慌张 避免外出 |
| [59:35] | Outside, the storm raged. | 外面暴风雨仍在肆虐 |
| [59:37] | All I could do was wait for Josh to come home. | 我只能在家等乔希回来 |
| [59:43] | When I heard the knock on my door, I knew. | 当敲门声响起时 我就意识到了什么 |
| [59:47] | He died a hero, they said. | 他们说 他英勇牺牲了 |
| [59:50] | But that was no comfort. | 但这并没有让我感觉些许安慰 |
| [59:54] | I called Molly and she wept. | 我打电话告诉了莫莉 她泪流不止 |
| [59:58] | She wanted me to come live with her. | 她想要我去和她住 |
| [1:00:02] | But I couldn’t leave. | 但我不能离开 |
| [1:00:04] | I just couldn’t leave. | 我就是不能离开 |
| [1:00:10] | Looking at four or five feet of water. | 从地上四五英尺深的积水得知 |
| [1:00:12] | We could see the worst of this storm by 3:00 AM. | 这场风暴最可怕的时刻会在凌晨三点结束 |
| [1:00:15] | New Yorkers are going to | 明天迎接纽约居民的 |
| [1:00:16] | wake up in a very different city tomorrow. | 会是一个完全不同的城市 |
| [1:00:23] | As the sun rose the next day, | 第二天太阳升起后 |
| [1:00:26] | it was clear that both my city and my life had been destroyed. | 我很清楚 我的城市和生活都毁了 |
| [1:00:32] | Battery Park fills up with seawater. | 巴特里公园淹没在海水中 |
| [1:00:34] | Lower west side, lower east side. | 东西部的低洼区 |
| [1:00:36] | Brooklyn, Queens is flooded. | 布鲁克林 皇后区被淹没 |
| [1:00:39] | Kennedy Airport’s flooded. | 肯尼迪机场被淹没 |
| [1:00:40] | Newark Airport’s flooded. | 纽瓦克机场被淹没 |
| [1:00:43] | It’s all gonna be under water. | 一切都泡在水里 |
| [1:00:45] | In the coming days, when the waters receded, | 接下来几天 积水退去 |
| [1:00:49] | the city was filthy and everything that could rot was rotting. | 整个城市污秽不堪 腐臭难忍 |
| [1:00:54] | People wanted to leave. | 人们想离开 |
| [1:00:55] | But for many of them, there was nowhere to go. | 但其中的很多人 他们无处可去 |
| [1:00:59] | How welcoming will people be | 他们怎么可能受欢迎呢 |
| [1:01:02] | when New York or Boston sink under water | 当纽约或波士顿沦为水城 |
| [1:01:06] | and all those people, in their millions, | 所有这些人 携带着百万美元 |
| [1:01:09] | come to New England or to Pennsylvania? | 逃往新西兰或者宾夕法尼亚 |
| [1:01:12] | How welcoming will people be? | 他们怎么可能会受欢迎呢 |
| [1:01:17] | I packed my things and set them at the door. | 我把打包好的行李放在门边 |
| [1:01:23] | But I didn’t leave. | 但我没有走 |
| [1:01:27] | I suppose you could say I was stubborn. | 我猜你会说我固执 |
| [1:01:31] | And I was needed at Bellevue more than ever. | 贝尔维尔现在正需要我 |
| [1:01:35] | There were millions who needed someone to care for them. | 这里有数百万人需要有人照顾 |
| [1:01:52] | As the seas rose, the wealthy moved uptown to higher ground | 随着海平面上升 富人搬到了高地 |
| [1:01:56] | and hired private companies to pick up the trash. | 雇私人公司来收拾垃圾 |
| [1:02:03] | But in the low-lying slums, tap water was contaminated. | 但低处的贫民窟 自来水被污染 |
| [1:02:07] | People were so poor they ate only once a day, if they ate at all. | 穷困的人们最多只能一天一餐 |
| [1:02:15] | When people are hungry and people are malnourished, | 当人们处于饥饿营养不良的状态 |
| [1:02:18] | as you continue to have displacement with floods, | 城市积水仍在排放 |
| [1:02:22] | there’s no doubt that’s a | 这无疑给某些传染病 |
| [1:02:24] | perfect setup for certain types of infections. | 提供了绝好时机 |
| [1:02:29] | I was working the late shift when the first case came in. | 第一例病人来的时候我正值夜班 |
| [1:02:35] | A young man with a cough and a high fever. | 这个年轻男人咳嗽并且高烧 |
| [1:02:38] | And then I noticed the blisters all over his body. | 接着我发现他身上布满水疱 |
| [1:02:42] | Was this the virus I had seen years ago? | 是我多年前见过的那种病毒呢 |
| [1:02:47] | Another case of Caspian fever… | 又发现一例里海热症 |
| [1:02:48] | Health officials have issued a statement, | 卫生部门发表声明 |
| [1:02:50] | asking people to avoid public… | 要求民众避免去公共场所 |
| [1:02:52] | All New York City schools have been shut down. | 全纽约的学校都被关闭 |
| [1:02:54] | Representatives from the CDC… | 疾病防治中心代表透露 |
| [1:02:56] | This virus is cause for concern. | 这种病毒令人担忧 |
| [1:03:00] | Within a week, over 20 were dead. | 才一个星期 就死了二十多人 |
| [1:03:03] | People on the streets wore masks, avoided each other. | 人们戴口罩上街 避免相互接触 |
| [1:03:07] | The air was ripe with panic. | 人心惶惶 |
| [1:03:09] | Reminding citizens to wash their hands and cover their mouths. | 提醒市民勤洗手 戴口罩 |
| [1:03:14] | You would shut down factories. You would shut down trade. | 关闭工厂 中止贸易 |
| [1:03:17] | You would shut down commerce. | 商业活动暂停 |
| [1:03:18] | Everything would shut down. | 一切都被停止 |
| [1:03:20] | Death toll from Caspian Fever has now reached 107. | 里海热症死亡人数已攀升至一百零七例 |
| [1:03:24] | The virus continued to mutate and spread. | 病毒持续变异和传播 |
| [1:03:27] | So some long incubating virus that kills very fast, | 一些长期潜伏的病毒致死速度很快 |
| [1:03:31] | that’s the kind of thing that’s going to get us. | 这正是我们身上可能发生的 |
| [1:03:34] | It only took a few people | 只需几个人 几架飞机 |
| [1:03:36] | on a few planes to spread it around the world. | 病毒就能扩散到全世界 |
| [1:03:40] | Cases of the fever have been confirmed in over 100 countries… | 已有超过一百个国家发现热症病例 |
| [1:03:42] | Now estimated that 10,000 have died in Mexico… | 墨西哥预计已有一万人死亡 |
| [1:03:46] | Temporary morgues have been set up in the streets of Shanghai. | 上海街道上设立了临时停尸棚 |
| [1:03:48] | The Vatican conducted a national funeral mass today. | 梵蒂冈今天举行大型全国性葬礼 |
| [1:03:52] | From Singapore to Sydney, the globe shut down. | 从新加坡到悉尼 全球瘫痪了 |
| [1:03:56] | Farmers wouldn’t bring food into cities. | 农民无法向城市运送食物 |
| [1:03:58] | Cargo ships wouldn’t dock, let alone unload. | 货轮不能停靠 更不用说卸货 |
| [1:04:02] | Billions were on the verge of starvation. | 数十亿人处于饥饿的边缘 |
| [1:04:19] | I saw hundreds of people die every day. | 每天我目睹成百上千人死去 |
| [1:04:24] | I was immune. | 我对病毒免疫 |
| [1:04:25] | One of the lucky ones. | 是万里挑一的幸运儿 |
| [1:04:28] | It was hard to feel anything. | 要感受周围的一切很难 |
| [1:04:31] | There was too much to feel. | 因为有太多需要承受 |
| [1:04:33] | You think about the effect that this kind of disaster would have. | 想一下这种灾难所带来的影响 |
| [1:04:37] | Everybody’s depressed. | 人人抑郁消沉 |
| [1:04:39] | What do you do with all the bodies? | 该怎么处理这些尸体 |
| [1:04:42] | People just gonna, you know, take | 你知道 难道人们只是想把亲人 |
| [1:04:44] | their loved ones to the local park and leave them there? | 送到当地停放点 然后一走了之吗 |
| [1:04:48] | At that point, cities will be unbearable. | 从这点来说 城市将会无法承受 |
| [1:04:52] | You could see it on people’s faces on the street. | 你可以看到街道上人们脸上的表情 |
| [1:04:55] | They had given up. | 他们绝望了 |
| [1:04:57] | As more and more people died, all services broke down. | 随着越来越多人死去 服务设施瘫痪了 |
| [1:05:00] | There were frequent blackouts. | 频繁断电 |
| [1:05:02] | And now connections to the internet were intermittent at best. | 网络信号最好时也只是断断续续 |
| [1:05:07] | Around the world, deaths from the Caspian Fever show no signs… | 纵观全球 里海热症死亡前没有任何征兆 |
| [1:05:13] | And then one day, the power just went out. | 最终 供电停止 |
| [1:05:17] | The phones, the internet, the whole data network went down. | 电话 网络 所有数据网络都瘫痪了 |
| [1:05:22] | Some said it was a terrorist. | 有人说是因为恐怖组织 |
| [1:05:24] | Others thought it was the flooding. | 另一些说是因为洪水 |
| [1:05:26] | Suddenly no one knew anything for sure. | 一时间 没有人有明确的答案 |
| [1:05:29] | If communication breaks down, | 一旦通讯系统瘫痪 |
| [1:05:31] | rumor becomes the communication system | 谣言就控制了一切 |
| [1:05:34] | and a mob psychology takes over. | 暴民心理就会占上风 |
| [1:05:36] | Collapse is not something that actually happens overnight. | 社会崩塌并不是一朝一夕的事 |
| [1:05:40] | It’s the result of an accumulation of stresses, | 它是由于压力的积累 |
| [1:05:42] | an erosion of the internal strength of society, | 一种对社会内部力量的侵蚀 |
| [1:05:46] | so that it just becomes like an eggshell. | 之后社会就会变得像一个蛋壳 |
| [1:05:48] | And one last shock breaks it. | 最后只需一点外力便分崩离析了 |
| [1:06:01] | Looting was rampant. | 烧杀抢掠活动猖狂 |
| [1:06:03] | Most of the police force deserted. | 大部分警力形同虚设 |
| [1:06:07] | The mayor was nowhere to be found. | 市长不知所踪 |
| [1:06:11] | We waited for the President or the National Guard to appear. | 我们等待着总统或警卫队出现 |
| [1:06:14] | But no one came. | 但没人露面 |
| [1:06:17] | That’s when it dawned on us that the government, | 我们渐渐明白 像其他一切一样 |
| [1:06:20] | like so much else, had failed. | 政府也垮了 |
| [1:06:23] | If the world breaks down, if globalization breaks down, | 如果世界崩溃 全球化崩溃 |
| [1:06:26] | then even the capacity of the United States | 那么美国管理 |
| [1:06:29] | to kind of manage a degraded global environment. | 全球环境的能力基本也崩溃了 |
| [1:06:33] | I think will come into question. | 我认为这会引起大麻烦 |
| [1:06:36] | What we’ll see is the federal government being viewed as | 我们会看到人们将 |
| [1:06:40] | something not to be taken seriously anymore. | 不再把联邦政府当回事 |
| [1:06:53] | Reports were sketchy, but here’s what I know for sure. | 报告内容粗略模糊 但我确定了一件事 |
| [1:06:58] | The virus continued to spread. | 病毒仍在蔓延 |
| [1:07:02] | India and China had gone | 印度和中国 |
| [1:07:04] | to war over water and who knew what else. | 因为水资源和一些别的东西而开战 |
| [1:07:08] | Millions were dying from famine. | 上百万人正饿得奄奄一息 |
| [1:07:12] | The human race was collapsing under its own weight. | 人类终究不堪重负 走向瓦解 |
| [1:07:25] | By that time, I will guess | 到那个时候 我认为 |
| [1:07:26] | that we will be seeing a substantial die off | 人口数量一定会 |
| [1:07:29] | of the human population. | 大幅缩减 |
| [1:07:31] | Most of civil society will have degenerated. | 大多数民主社会退化了 |
| [1:07:38] | I was 75 when I walked across that George Washington Bridge. | 七十五岁那年 我穿过乔治华盛顿大桥 |
| [1:07:47] | There were no check points anymore. | 这里不再有检查站 |
| [1:07:50] | I left with a couple of friends and a dog who had adopted me. | 我和一只收留了我的狗 还有一群朋友离开了 |
| [1:07:55] | Rosy, I called her. | 我叫她罗西 |
| [1:07:56] | She never left my side. | 她对我不离不弃 |
| [1:07:59] | But where was I going? | 但我去往哪里呢 |
| [1:08:01] | I didn’t know if Molly was still alive. | 我不知道莫莉是否还活着 |
| [1:08:03] | Let alone still on the farm up north. | 更别提她还是否还在北方的农场 |
| [1:08:06] | I didn’t know if I had a grandson anymore. | 我甚至不知道我还有没有孙子 |
| [1:08:12] | But that was my hope, | 但我希望 |
| [1:08:14] | that I could somehow find them or they me. | 无论如何 能够找到他们或被他们找到 |
| [1:08:24] | A few hundred years down the line, | 几百年后的某一天 |
| [1:08:26] | they’ll look back and say | 人类回顾历史会觉得 |
| [1:08:29] | the Dark Ages began in the 21st century. | 黑暗时期开始于二十一世纪 |
| [1:08:35] | Our city, beautiful city, was abandoned. | 我们的城市 美丽的城市 被遗弃 |
| [1:08:40] | And nature took over quickly. | 一如既往 |
| [1:08:42] | As it always has. | 自然很快取而代之 |
| [1:08:51] | The breakdown would be rather rapid. | 坍塌非常迅速 |
| [1:08:53] | The flooding of Manhattan would have a real destabilizing effect. | 曼哈顿洪水起到了瓦解作用 |
| [1:08:58] | The subway tunnels would flood and they would stay flooded. | 地铁隧道被淹没 成为水渠 |
| [1:09:02] | The columns that hold up the streets, | 支撑街道的框架 |
| [1:09:04] | they’re steel, they will rust, they will corrode. | 是钢铁 会生锈 会被腐蚀 |
| [1:09:08] | The streets above them start caving in, and low and behold, | 支撑其上的街道开始塌陷 低头看去 |
| [1:09:10] | we have surface rivers once again in Manhattan. | 曼哈顿再次一片汪洋 |
| [1:09:16] | Nature has that momentum, you see. | 你看到 自然有这种能力 |
| [1:09:19] | Take the thing back. | 收回赐予人类的一切 |
| [1:09:22] | Practically become like a jungle. | 几乎变成丛林 |
| [1:09:24] | From the asphalt jungle to the real jungle. | 从柏油丛林变成了真正的丛林 |
| [1:09:27] | Your big skyscrapers here | 高楼大厦被固定在 |
| [1:09:29] | are well anchored into Manhattan schist. | 曼哈顿岩层里 |
| [1:09:32] | On the other hand, they weren’t designed to be water logged. | 另一方面 它们并没有设计防水功能 |
| [1:09:36] | It just takes one hurricane to hit New York. | 一旦飓风袭击纽约 |
| [1:09:38] | Buildings are going to start to get taken out. | 楼房被连根拔起 |
| [1:09:46] | And it wasn’t just the city. | 并不只是城市 |
| [1:09:50] | Our whole way of life had crumbled. | 我们的整个生活方式也瓦解了 |
| [1:09:55] | But I found my daughter Molly, | 但是我找到了女儿莫莉 |
| [1:09:58] | and Daniel, my grandson. | 和外孙丹尼尔 |
| [1:09:59] | He was a young man now. | 他已经长大了 |
| [1:10:01] | Molly’s husband George had been killed. | 莫莉的丈夫乔治被杀了 |
| [1:10:04] | Both of us were widows now. | 我们两个都成了寡妇 |
| [1:10:11] | It is a hard life. | 生活非常艰难 |
| [1:10:12] | The United States is fragmented into a million chards. | 美国四分五裂 |
| [1:10:17] | We’re all cut off from each other. | 人们彼此失去了联系 |
| [1:10:20] | Each protecting what little we have. | 捍卫着自己仅剩的一切 |
| [1:10:26] | It would be a wrenching transition, | 这无疑是个痛苦的转变 |
| [1:10:28] | it would be a catastrophic transition. | 也是一个灾难性的转变 |
| [1:10:31] | It’s something we don’t want to experience. | 没有人愿意经历这一切 |
| [1:10:34] | The Dark Ages were called the Dark Ages for a reason. | 黑暗时代这个名字是有由来的 |
| [1:10:37] | I fear that we’ll see a world like medieval Europe | 我害怕世界会像封建制的 |
| [1:10:41] | where you have feudal states | 中世纪欧洲一样 |
| [1:10:44] | fighting for what remains | 为了仅剩的一点水源和能源 |
| [1:10:46] | of a source of water, a source of energy. | 而互相残杀 |
| [1:10:55] | We managed to produce our own power | 我们设法自己发电 |
| [1:10:58] | and communicate over radio waves. | 用无线电交流 |
| [1:11:01] | The cities that have endured are now walled fortresses. | 历经磨难的城市变得坚不可摧 |
| [1:11:05] | Jealously guarding whatever remains of the computer age. | 小心地守护着信息时代的残留物 |
| [1:11:10] | I’m picturing enclaves of affluence and wealth, | 我想象出一片富饶的土地 |
| [1:11:14] | but surrounded by vast | 被大量的 |
| [1:11:17] | masses of people who will be barely surviving. | 幸存者所包围 |
| [1:11:22] | In effect, humanity could very well be in hell. | 实际上 人类犹如身处地狱 |
| [1:11:27] | Where hell is defined as truth realized too late. | 因为我们清醒的太晚了 |
| [1:11:36] | We have had to re-learn what we had unlearned centuries before. | 我们必须重拾数世纪前已丢弃的技能 |
| [1:11:41] | How to live off the land. | 如何靠地为生 |
| [1:11:43] | How to make do. | 如何勉强度日 |
| [1:11:47] | I think we’ll see a world | 我们将会看到一个 |
| [1:11:49] | in which literature, the arts, democracy, | 文学 艺术 民主 |
| [1:11:53] | those will disappear, largely disappear. | 大量遗失的世界 |
| [1:11:58] | How much of the wonderful | 那些二十 二十一世纪 |
| [1:11:59] | scientific breakthroughs of the 20th and 21 st century | 令人惊叹的科学成果 |
| [1:12:03] | will still be retained? | 还能剩下多少呢 |
| [1:12:05] | If it’s some electronic-based thing, it could all be lost. | 以电子为基础的成果都消失了 |
| [1:12:10] | My grandson Daniel might never hear a symphony, go to college, | 我的外孙丹尼尔可能永远无法 |
| [1:12:14] | or read the books I read. | 听交响乐 上大学 读我读过的书 |
| [1:12:16] | He will never marvel at a right whale, | 他永远不会对露脊鲸 |
| [1:12:19] | the beauty of a coral reef or a spotted owl. | 珊瑚礁和斑点猫头鹰感到惊讶 |
| [1:12:28] | You ever actually get outside | 你从未真正走到外面 |
| [1:12:29] | and just kind of look at the wonder of the world, | 只是粗略地看到了世界的奇妙 |
| [1:12:31] | it takes your breath away. | 它使你大吃一惊 |
| [1:12:33] | And I think to think of a world | 我觉得 想到这个世界 |
| [1:12:35] | where somehow that is taken away, is really sad. | 会被大自然收回真让人伤心 |
| [1:12:55] | We’re going to leave a planet that is so desperately beaten up | 我们留下一个千沧百孔的星球 |
| [1:13:02] | that it will probably take hundreds | 它可能要花数十万年 |
| [1:13:04] | of thousands of years to get it back, to restore it. | 才能恢复原貌 |
| [1:13:08] | We will have lost so much of our natural heritage. | 我们遗失了太多自然遗产 |
| [1:13:27] | I can teach him poems and songs. | 我能教他吟诗唱歌 |
| [1:13:30] | I can tell him what I saw and what I learned along the way. | 我能告诉他我一路的所见所学 |
| [1:13:35] | I can try to tell him what is precious. | 我尽力告诉他什么是宝贵的 |
| [1:13:41] | What is precious? | 但什么是宝贵的呢 |
| [1:13:43] | I ought to know that. | 我理应知道 |
| [1:13:45] | They say I am the oldest woman on Earth. | 他们说我是地球上最年长的女人 |
| [1:13:49] | With age is supposed to come wisdom. | 理应充满智慧 |
| [1:13:53] | What is precious? | 世上最宝贵的东西是什么 |
| [1:13:55] | This Earth of ours. | 我们的地球 |
| [1:14:00] | This garden we must tend. | 这个我们必须照料的花园 |
| [1:14:03] | These people we love. | 这些我们所爱的人 |
| [1:14:22] | Lucy’s story is a worst case scenario of what could happen | 露西的故事只是一种最坏的假设 |
| [1:14:26] | if we continue on our current path. | 她的故事建立在我们继续胡作非为的前提下 |
| [1:14:28] | It’s a wakeup call, a | 这是对我们敲响的警钟 |
| [1:14:29] | challenge for us to plan a different course. | 让我们改变目前行径的挑战 |
| [1:14:32] | But our experts say we must act immediately. | 专家说我们必须立即行动 |
| [1:14:35] | Where did Lucy’s world go wrong? | 露西的世界错在哪里 |
| [1:14:37] | What can we learn from their mistakes? | 我们可以吸取怎样的教训 |
| [1:14:39] | We turn back the clock now to | 现在我们让时光倒流 |
| [1:14:41] | show you a vision of a future we can still create. | 向你展示一个我们可以创造的未来 |
| [1:14:47] | There’s a future out there that’s a much present future | 比起我们现在生活的世界 |
| [1:14:51] | than the present that we’re living in right now, to be sure. | 这无疑是一个更应该存在的未来 |
| [1:14:53] | If we took the measures we should take, | 如果我们做了我们该做的 |
| [1:14:56] | 2100 would be at the beginning of an era | 二一零零年将成为一个新时代的开端 |
| [1:15:00] | that we, today, would regard as paradise. | 对今天的我们来说 那就是天堂 |
| [1:15:04] | We have a chance to get it right, | 我们有机会更正 |
| [1:15:06] | to move from a disconnected inefficient world | 让这个分裂低效 |
| [1:15:10] | of fighting populations, | 人口斗争的世界 |
| [1:15:13] | to a sustainable planet. | 变成一个可持续发展的星球 |
| [1:15:14] | The problem we face today is how do we get from here to there? | 我们面临的问题是如何实现这一目标 |
| [1:15:25] | The world that Lucy was born into is our world today. | 露西出生于我们这个时代 |
| [1:15:29] | There are plenty of signs that it’s in trouble. | 充满大量的灾难迹象 |
| [1:15:32] | But there are hopeful signs as well. | 但也有希望的曙光 |
| [1:15:35] | The problems that we face, | 我们所面临的问题 |
| [1:15:36] | water, soil, climate change, | 水 土壤 气候变化 |
| [1:15:38] | they’re all problems caused by humans. | 都是人类造成的 |
| [1:15:40] | So we’re capable of solving those problems. | 所以我们能够解决这些问题 |
| [1:15:43] | It could be overwhelming if we let it. | 如果我们置之不理 后果不堪设想 |
| [1:15:45] | I just try to take it one brick, one chunk at a time. | 我试着循序渐进地解决 |
| [1:15:48] | I think that’s how you have to deal with it. | 我认为这才是解决的方法 |
| [1:15:51] | So what should we do right now to chart another course? | 我们该如何绘制一个新的蓝图 |
| [1:15:54] | How do we avoid ending up in Lucy’s world? | 我们该怎样避免露西世界的结局 |
| [1:15:57] | Many experts say the first | 许多专家称 |
| [1:15:59] | step should be transforming how we use energy. | 首先应该改变我们利用能源的方式 |
| [1:16:03] | Much of what we need to do we already know. | 我们已经知道大多数该怎么做 |
| [1:16:07] | Plant a garden. | 种植花园 |
| [1:16:08] | Use compact fluorescent bulbs. | 用节能荧光灯 |
| [1:16:09] | More mass transit for people. | 更多的公共交通 |
| [1:16:11] | Insulate your homes. | 使房间绝缘 |
| [1:16:12] | Smaller cars. | 使用小型汽车 |
| [1:16:14] | There’s no simple solution, | 没有简单的解决方法 |
| [1:16:16] | but 100% of the Earth’s population doing a very small thing | 但如果人人参与 |
| [1:16:20] | makes a big difference. | 结果将会不同凡响 |
| [1:16:22] | But individuals alone won’t be able to turn things around. | 但个人的力量是有限的 |
| [1:16:27] | Governments and industries | 政府和工厂 |
| [1:16:29] | are going to have to change on a massive scale. | 必须作出巨大的改变 |
| [1:16:32] | We’re going to have to come up with more solar, | 我们提供更多的太阳能 |
| [1:16:33] | more wave power, more geothermal energy. | 波浪发电 以及地热能 |
| [1:16:37] | Beyond the familiar technologies, | 除了这些耳熟能详的 |
| [1:16:39] | amazing new ones are already in the works. | 一些令人惊奇的新技术已经在计划中 |
| [1:16:42] | Fields of solar balloons | 每天能为上千个家庭提供能源的 |
| [1:16:43] | that could power thousands of homes a day. | 太阳能气球 |
| [1:16:46] | A nuclear fusion facility that | 能产生一个人造小恒星能量的 |
| [1:16:47] | could produce the energy of a tiny manmade star. | 核聚变设备 |
| [1:16:51] | We can’t drill and burn our way out of our problems, | 我们不能用钻探和燃烧来解决问题 |
| [1:16:54] | but we can invent and invest our way out. | 但我们用发明和投资来解决 |
| [1:16:57] | Getting enough of these projects up and running will take people. | 工程的准备和运行都需要人力 |
| [1:17:00] | And that means jobs. | 这就意味着就业 |
| [1:17:04] | And if we can put more people back to work, then by 2015, | 只要我们能提供更多就业 |
| [1:17:09] | instead of communities disintegrating, | 那么到2015年 社会不会瓦解 |
| [1:17:12] | they could start to rebound. | 我们将重建社会 |
| [1:17:15] | You could fight pollution and poverty at the same time. | 你可以同时抗击污染和贫困 |
| [1:17:18] | You can beat global warming and | 也可以同时应对全球变暖和 |
| [1:17:20] | the economic downturn with the same dollar bill | 经济衰退 |
| [1:17:23] | that you invested in green jobs, green energy, green technology. | 利用投资的环保工作 环保能源 环保科技 |
| [1:17:29] | If we start those investments today | 如果我们立即着手这些投资 |
| [1:17:31] | there wouldn’t be gas lines and fights as in Lucy’s world. | 露西世界的汽车长队和暴乱就不会出现 |
| [1:17:36] | Instead, there would be | 取而代之的是 |
| [1:17:37] | electric cars that could run 300 miles per charge. | 一次充电可行驶三百英里的电动车 |
| [1:17:41] | But completely redesigning | 但彻底重建能源系统 |
| [1:17:43] | our energy system would require rapid change. | 需要迅速的改变 |
| [1:17:46] | It would mean both sacrifice and hard work for the whole country. | 意味着整个国家的牺牲和艰苦工作 |
| [1:17:50] | But we have done it before. | 但我们曾经经历过 |
| [1:17:53] | The thing I would compare it to is World War II. | 就像二次大战时期 |
| [1:17:56] | After Pearl Harbor, | 珍珠港事件后 |
| [1:17:57] | FDR turned to Detroit, the automakers, | 罗斯福找到底特律的汽车制造商 |
| [1:18:00] | and said, you will now make tanks. You will now make Jeeps. | 让他们造坦克 造吉普 |
| [1:18:04] | Just like that. | 就像这样 |
| [1:18:05] | That was like overnight almost, and they did it. | 几乎是通宵达旦 他们终于造了出来 |
| [1:18:10] | And we won that war. | 而我们赢了那场战争 |
| [1:18:12] | It’s going to take that same level of commitment. | 现在需要同样的献身 |
| [1:18:15] | Imagine that all of us did enough | 想象一下我们全力以赴 |
| [1:18:16] | things that it made a real difference in our country. | 而我们国家因此不同 |
| [1:18:21] | What effect does that have on China, | 这对中国 印度 以及其他国家 |
| [1:18:24] | on India, on other nations? | 会产生怎样的影响呢 |
| [1:18:27] | Well, if we don’t set an example as | 作为世界上最强大最重要的国家 |
| [1:18:28] | the strongest and most important country in the world, | 如果我们不树立榜样 |
| [1:18:31] | what do we expect them to do? | 又能期望其他国家做些什么呢 |
| [1:18:32] | They’re not going to follow if we don’t lead. | 如果我们不带头 就没人去实行 |
| [1:18:35] | World leaders are gathering in Washington, DC, | 各国首脑齐聚华盛顿 |
| [1:18:38] | to attend an emergency global summit meeting. | 出席一个紧急全球首脑会议 |
| [1:18:40] | A turning point in Lucy’s world | 二零一五年召开的全球峰会 |
| [1:18:42] | was the global summit of 2015. | 是露西世界的转折点 |
| [1:18:45] | When the world leaders failed to | 当各国领导未能就 |
| [1:18:46] | agree on actions to slow climate change. | 减缓气候变化的措施达成协议 |
| [1:18:49] | We do not accept the offer. | 我们不接受这项提议 |
| [1:18:51] | They set in motion all the disasters that would follow. | 他们使灾难接踵而至 |
| [1:18:55] | But what if they had agreed? | 如果他们达成协议会怎样呢 |
| [1:18:58] | For the first time ever, China, India, | 有史以来首次 中国 印度 |
| [1:19:01] | the US and Europe have reached an agreement | 美国和欧洲达成共识 |
| [1:19:03] | that could avert catastrophic climate change. | 来阻止灾难性的气候变化 |
| [1:19:07] | By tackling climate change, you end up tackling energy, | 解决气候变化的同时 也解决了 |
| [1:19:11] | you end up tackling food, you end up tackling water resources. | 能源 食物 和水资源的问题 |
| [1:19:15] | You could change this vicious cycle I think into a virtuous cycle. | 由恶性循环变为良性循环 |
| [1:19:20] | Then what we could see is actually billions of people | 我们将看到 数以亿计的人们 |
| [1:19:22] | coming into far more stable sustainable prosperous economies. | 进入更稳定持续繁荣的经济社会 |
| [1:19:28] | As we move forward in the century, we will see the investments | 随着时间前行 我们将看到最初做出的 |
| [1:19:31] | and hard choices we made early on begin to pay off. | 投资以及艰难的抉择正在起作用 |
| [1:19:36] | A positive scenario is fossil fuels will be disappearing. | 积极的构想是 矿物燃料被取代 |
| [1:19:42] | We’re growing more food with less water. | 我们用更少的水 产出更多的食物 |
| [1:19:44] | We’ve restored ecosystems. | 我们重建了生态体系 |
| [1:19:47] | By the middle of the century, | 到二十一世纪中期 |
| [1:19:48] | we would be using water and other resources much more carefully. | 我们将更小心地使用水和其他资源 |
| [1:19:52] | Farmers would be planting drown resistant crops. | 农民将种植耐涝农作物 |
| [1:19:55] | Water would be recycled, | 水将得到循环利用 |
| [1:19:56] | and there would be enough to support the US Southwest. | 美国西南部将有充足的水源供应 |
| [1:19:59] | In 2050, places like Las Vegas could survive. | 到二零五零年 拉斯维加斯能存活下来 |
| [1:20:05] | The hope is that once we figure out how to solve these problems, | 一旦我们找出解决问题的方法 |
| [1:20:09] | we’ll be in a much better position to help the rest of the world. | 我们将更好的帮助世界的其它地区 |
| [1:20:12] | If we can actually raise the | 如果我们能给 |
| [1:20:14] | prospects of the bottom few billion people, | 数十亿生活底层的人们带来希望 |
| [1:20:18] | we actually make global stability possible. | 全球稳定将成为可能 |
| [1:20:21] | We reduce mass migration. | 我们减少了人口大量迁移 |
| [1:20:24] | Refugee movements. | 难民流动 |
| [1:20:26] | Desperation. | 暴力革命 |
| [1:20:27] | Actually slow the population growth. | 实际上也减缓了人口增长 |
| [1:20:32] | And if we do all those things, | 如果我们做到了这些 |
| [1:20:34] | we just bring a sustainable world prosperity closer to hand. | 世界的持续繁荣将指日可待 |
| [1:20:40] | There’s a very good chance by about 2050, | 二零五零年是一个很好的时机 |
| [1:20:44] | the worst part of the crisis having passed, | 危机中最糟糕的部分已经过去 |
| [1:20:47] | doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be big problems still to face. | 并不是说没有大问题了 |
| [1:20:50] | But it means that we will have | 而是说我们 |
| [1:20:52] | avoided sailing right off the cliff. | 悬崖勒马了 |
| [1:20:57] | By 2100, our world could be transformed. | 到二一零零年 世界将彻底改变 |
| [1:21:03] | Just imagine a city that is not polluted, | 试想一个城市没有污染 |
| [1:21:07] | that has a great transportation infrastructure. | 有着良好的交通基础设施 |
| [1:21:11] | Stackable cars or cars | 可折叠的汽车或是 |
| [1:21:13] | that are folding and then they would charge | 能折叠并且充电的汽车 |
| [1:21:15] | and be a shared ownership model | 并且有着共享的所有权模式 |
| [1:21:17] | and you would just pull out | 你只需要将一辆 |
| [1:21:18] | the one that’s available that’s fully charged. | 满电的空车驶出 |
| [1:21:20] | Everything happens inside the city itself. | 城市自给自足 |
| [1:21:23] | That means our food production, | 这包括我们的食物生产 |
| [1:21:24] | our waste and recycling, our energy. | 废物以及回收 我们的能源 |
| [1:21:27] | We’re going to have joint | 我们将共同管理 |
| [1:21:28] | management of water resources, of energy resources. | 水资源和能源资源 |
| [1:21:32] | We’re going to be living on a planet where we don’t see things | 我们将生活在一个无国界的 |
| [1:21:36] | at a national level, but we see things at a global level. | 全球化星球上 |
| [1:21:41] | By the time we get to 2100, | 到二一零零年 |
| [1:21:43] | the challenge of building a global green economy, | 建立起全球环保经济 |
| [1:21:46] | where we’re sharing technologies, | 我们共享技术 |
| [1:21:48] | not fighting wars over water and oil, | 不再为了水资源和石油而争斗 |
| [1:21:50] | that’s going to bring out the best in the human family. | 我们将真正建立一个人类的大家庭 |
| [1:21:53] | Humanity will be relatively disease free. | 人类将很少受疾病困扰 |
| [1:21:58] | Children will be treated as rare treasures. | 孩子将被珍视 |
| [1:22:03] | Most people don’t realize | 大多数人没有意识到 |
| [1:22:05] | not only can we change, we must change. | 我们不仅可以改变 而且必须改变 |
| [1:22:07] | And I think that’s how you own the future. | 只有这样我们才能拥有未来 |
| [1:22:09] | That’s how you take control of your destiny. | 才能掌握自己的命运 |
| [1:22:11] | I have huge faith in humanity. | 我对人类有很大的信心 |
| [1:22:16] | We will be able to create a world that | 我们能够创造一个 |
| [1:22:18] | will have a livable planet for our kids and their kids, | 适于我们后代繁衍的世界 |
| [1:22:20] | that is our opportunity. | 这是我们的机遇 |
| [1:22:22] | That is our obligation. | 也是我们的义务 |
| [1:22:28] | Kids born today will see us | 今天的孩子们将看到 |
| [1:22:30] | navigate past the first greatest test of humanity, | 我们正在经历人类的第一次严峻挑战 |
| [1:22:34] | which is can we actually be smart | 那就是我们是否能够安然生存下去 |
| [1:22:36] | enough to live on a planet without destroying it. | 同时不破坏这个星球 |
| [1:22:41] | In December this year, nearly | 今年十二月 大约两百个国家 |
| [1:22:43] | 200 countries plan to meet in Copenhagen, Denmark. | 计划在丹麦首都哥本哈根举行会面 |
| [1:22:46] | Their mission, to draw up a | 他们的目标是 拟定一个策略 |
| [1:22:47] | strategy to finally come up with a global agreement | 最后达成全球性的协议 |
| [1:22:50] | to slow climate change and safeguard the planet. | 共同减缓气候变化 保卫地球 |
| [1:22:54] | If you’d like to learn more about “Earth 2100” , | 如果你想了解更多关于”地球 2100″ |
| [1:22:56] | or if you want to get involved in the solutions, | 或者想参与寻找解决方案 |
| [1:22:59] | go to our web page at abcnews.com. | 请登录我们的网站 abcnews.com |
| [1:23:02] | I’m Bob Woodruff. | 我是鲍勃·伍德夫 |
| [1:23:03] | For all of us here at ABC News, | 这里是今天美国广播新闻的全部内容 |
| [1:23:05] | good night. | 各位晚安 |