英文名称：The Future of Work and Death
年代：2016
推荐：千部英美剧台词本阅读
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| [00:10] | 目前生命中最可悲的莫过于科学 聚集知识的速度要快于社会聚集智慧 艾萨克 阿西莫夫 | |
| [00:18] | Even if we can change human beings, | 即使我们能改造人类 |
| [00:21] | in what direction do we change them? | 我们应该向什么方向改造他们 |
| [00:22] | 艾萨克 阿西莫夫 生化学家 科幻小说家 | |
| [00:23] | Do we want to change them this way or that way? | 我们是以这样的方式改造他们呢 还是那样 |
| [00:26] | This is an example of the way in which | 这里有一个例子 |
| [00:30] | technological advance impinges on sociological necessity. | 关于技术进步影响社会学的必定性 |
| [00:55] | What we need to ask ourselves is, | 我们需要问自己的是 |
| [00:57] | “Where does my individual ability to control my life | 我个人控制自己生活 |
| [01:01] | or to influence the political process | 或者影响政治进程的能力在哪 |
| [01:04] | lie in relation to these new forms of technology?” | 与这些新形式的技术有关吗 |
| [01:10] | Government and politicians | 政府和政治家 |
| [01:11] | don’t understand what’s happening. | 不明白发生了什么 |
| [01:12] | See, they don’t even realized this change is happening. | 看吧 他们甚至没意识到变化正在发生 |
| [01:17] | It is very difficult, not impossible, | 精确预测效果是什么非常困难 |
| [01:20] | to predict what the precise effects will be, | 但不是不可能 |
| [01:23] | and in many cases, like with other technologies, | 在许多情况下 就像其他技术一样 |
| [01:28] | we have to socket and see. | 我们得接上电源看看 |
| [01:30] | Who would have predicted the internet? | 谁曾预言过互联网 |
| [01:33] | And I talk about this matter as humanity 2.0 | 我把这件事称为人类2.0 |
| [01:35] | ’cause in a sense, | 因为从某种意义上说 |
| [01:36] | this is where we’re heading, | 这正是我们前进的方向 |
| [01:37] | to some kind of new normal, as it were, of what it is to be a human being. | 就像人类一样成为某种新常态 |
| [01:42] | It’s not a problem that we should dismiss or underestimate. | 这不是我们应该忽视或低估的问题 |
| [01:46] | It’s staggering in its proportions. | 它的比例惊人 |
| [01:48] | Ignorance and disbelief at the same time. | 无知和难以置信同时发生 |
| [01:51] | People don’t believe that change is happening this fast. | 人们不相信变化的这么快 |
| [01:56] | That’s the problem. | 这就是问题所在 |
| [02:02] | This is a stone formed naturally in the Earth’s crust | 这是一块在地壳中自然形成的石头 |
| [02:06] | over millions of years through pressure and heat. | 经过数百万年的高温高压 |
| [02:10] | It was discovered in the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania. | 它是在坦桑尼亚的奥杜威峡谷发现的 |
| [02:14] | Dated around 2.5 million years BC, | 约公元前250万年 |
| [02:17] | it is arguably one of the first examples of technology. | 它可以说是最早的关于技术的例子之一 |
| [02:21] | Stone tools were first adapted for the use of cutting, | 石器被我们最早的祖先之一的能人 |
| [02:24] | scraping, or pounding materials by Homo habilis, one of our earliest ancestors. | 作为切割刮削或敲打的材料 |
| [02:32] | Over one million years later, | 一百多万年后 |
| [02:34] | mankind made one of the most significant | 人类获得了在所有 |
| [02:36] | of all technological discoveries… | 技术发现中最重要的一项 |
| [02:39] | Fire. | 火 |
| [02:41] | The ability to control fire | 控制火的能力 |
| [02:42] | was a turning point for human evolution. | 是人类进化的转折点 |
| 本电影台词包含不重复单词：1931个。 其中的生词包含：四级词汇：512个，六级词汇：324个，GRE词汇：281个，托福词汇：442个，考研词汇：548个，专四词汇：482个，专八词汇：90个， 所有生词标注共：987个。 定制生词标注的台词本和单词统计，请访问生词标注台词本 | ||
| [02:45] | It kept us warm | 它让我们保持温暖 |
| [02:46] | allowed us to see in the dark | 让我们能在黑暗中看到 |
| [02:48] | and allowed us to cook food, | 让我们能烹饪食物 |
| [02:50] | which many scientists believe was a huge contributor | 许多科学家认为这是对心智的提升 |
| [02:53] | to the ascent of mind. | 的一个巨大贡献 |
| [02:57] | Each age, each empire, has brought with it | 每个时代 每个帝国 都带来了 |
| [03:00] | the discovery and invention of numerous technologies | 许多发现和发明创造 |
| [03:04] | each in their own way redesigning human life… | 每个都以各自的方式重新定义人类的生活 |
| [03:11] | …leading us to now… …modern-day society. | 一直指引我们到现代社会 |
| [03:17] | We’re now more advanced, connected, knowledgeable, | 我们现在比以往更先进 更紧密 |
| [03:20] | and resistant to disease than ever before, | 更博学而且更能抵抗疾病 |
| [03:24] | 技术 名词 科学知识为实践目的的应用 | |
| [03:24] | and it is all due to our ability | 这完全归功于 |
| [03:25] | to apply scientific knowledge for practical purposes | 为了最大限度地提高效率 |
| [03:29] | in a bid to maximize efficiency. | 我们将科学知识应用于实践的能力 |
| [03:32] | Just as the stone set us on a path of transformation, | 就像石头让我们走上了变革的道路 |
| [03:36] | the technologies of the future | 未来的技术 |
| [03:38] | may bring with them a paradigm shift, | 可能会带来一种范式转移 |
| [03:41] | changing two major features of the human experience. | 改变人类经历的两个主要特征 |
| [03:46] | Two things that have defined our lives | 定义了我们生活的两件事 |
| [03:48] | for as long as we can remember. | 只要我们能记住 |
| [03:50] | Two things that have always been involuntary constants: | 有两件我们日常做的但并非出于自愿的事 |
| [03:55] | trading our time for sustenance | 一是用我们大好时光来换取生计 |
| [03:58] | and losing that time through senescence. | 二是因为衰老而失去大好时光 |
| [04:07] | 第一部分 用你的时间来换取生计 工作 | |
| [04:45] | The Industrial Revolution effectively freed man | 工业革命有效地将人类 |
| [04:48] | from being a beast of burden. | 从一个负重的野兽中解放出来 |
| [04:50] | The computer revolution will similarly free him | 计算机革命同样会将人类 |
| [04:52] | from dull, repetitive routine. | 从单调重复的日常生活中解放出来 |
| [04:54] | The computer revolution is, however, | 然而 计算机革命 |
| [04:56] | perhaps better compared with the Copernican or the Darwinian Revolution, | 也许比哥白尼或者达尔文带来的革命更好 |
| [05:00] | both of which greatly changed man’s idea of himself | 要知道 这两个革命当时都极大地改变了 |
| [05:04] | and the world in which he lives. | 人们对自身以及他所生活世界的看法 |
| [05:06] | In the space of 60 years, we have landed on the moon, | 在60年的时间里 我们登上了月球 |
| [05:09] | seen the rise of computing power, | 看到了计算能力的提升 |
| [05:12] | mobile phones, | 移动电话 |
| [05:13] | the explosion of the internet, | 互联网的爆炸 |
| [05:15] | and we have sequenced the human genome. | 和人类基因组测序 |
| [05:19] | We took man to the moon and back | 我们实现了载人飞船往返登月时 |
| [05:21] | with four kilobytes of memory. | 用的是4千字节的内存 |
| [05:23] | The phone in your pocket is at least 250,000 times | 而现在你口袋里的手机至少 |
| [05:28] | more powerful than that. | 比这强大25万倍 |
| [05:30] | We are ever-increasingly doing more with less. | 我们越来越少花钱多办事 |
| [05:33] | One of the things that has been born out of this technological revolution | 从这场技术革命中诞生的事情之一 |
| [05:38] | is the ability to replace human workers | 是用更高效的机器 |
| [05:40] | with more efficient machines. | 替代人类工人的能力 |
| [05:43] | This is largely due to the speed | 这主要是由于我们提高 |
| [05:45] | at which we are advancing our technological capabilities. | 我们的技术能力的速度 |
| [05:50] | Information technology grows in an exponential manner. | 信息技术以指数级数增长 |
| [05:55] | It’s not linear. | 不是线性的 |
| [05:56] | And our intuition is linear. | 但我们的直觉是线性的 |
| [05:59] | When we walked through the savanna | 一千年前 当我们穿过大草原时 |
| [06:00] | a thousand years ago, we made linear predictions | 我们线性预测 |
| [06:02] | where that animal would be and that worked fine. | 哪只动物会在哪里 而且运作得很好 |
| [06:04] | It’s hardwired in our brains, | 它是我们大脑中与生俱来的 |
| [06:06] | but the pace of exponential growth | 但是指数级增长的步伐 |
| [06:08] | is really what describes information technologies, | 其实是信息技术所描绘的 |
| [06:12] | and it’s not just computation. | 这还不止是计算 |
| [06:14] | There’s a big difference between linear and exponential growth. | 线性和指数增长非常不同 |
| [06:17] | If I take 30 steps linearly, | 如果我线性走30步 |
| [06:19] | one, two, three, four, five | 一 二 三 四 五 |
| [06:21] | I get to 30. | 我会得到30 |
| [06:22] | If I take 30 steps exponentially, | 而如果我以指数方式走30步 |
| [06:24] | two, four, eight, sixteen, I get to a billion. | 二 四 八 十六 我会得到十亿 |
| [06:27] | It makes a huge difference. | 这非常不一样 |
| [06:29] | And that really describes information technology. | 这才真的是信息技术所描绘的 |
| [06:31] | When I was a student at MIT, | 当我在麻省理工学院上学的时候 |
| [06:33] | we all shared one computer, it took up a whole building. | 我们共用一台电脑 它占了整栋楼 |
| [06:35] | The computer in your cell phone today | 今天你手机里的计算机 |
| [06:37] | is a million times cheaper, a million times smaller, | 不但便宜百万倍的 小百万倍的 |
| [06:40] | a thousand times more powerful. | 而且强大了一千倍 |
| [06:42] | That’s a billionfold increase in capability per dollar | 每美元的生产力提升了十亿倍 |
| [06:45] | that we’ve actually experienced | 这正是从我是一名学生以来 |
| [06:46] | since I was a student, | 我们所经历的 |
| [06:48] | and we’re gonna do it again in the next 25 years. | 而且这一切在接下来的25年里会重演 |
| [06:51] | Currently, on an almost daily basis, | 目前 几乎每天 |
| [06:54] | new algorithms, programs, | 新的算法 程序 |
| [06:56] | and feats in mechanical engineering | 以及机械工程方面的壮举 |
| [06:59] | are getting closer and closer to being a reliable | 在可靠性 成本效益上 |
| [07:02] | and more cost-effective alternative to a human worker. | 越来越成为一个对人工的替代品 |
| [07:07] | This process is known as automation. | 这个过程称为自动化 |
| [07:11] | This is not just about, | 你知道 这不仅仅是 |
| [07:11] | 马丁 福特 企业家 《机器人崛起》作者 | |
| [07:14] | you know, automation where we expect it, | 实现我们所期望的自动化 |
| [07:16] | which is in factories | 在工厂里 |
| [07:17] | and among blue-collar workers and so forth. | 在蓝领工人中等等 |
| [07:19] | It is coming quite aggressively | 对于技能水平更高的人来说 |
| [07:21] | for people at much higher skill levels, | 它来势汹汹 |
| [07:23] | and that will only grow in the future | 当我们继续这个指数弧 |
| [07:25] | as we continue on this exponential arc. | 这必定在未来发生 |
| [07:28] | This business that, you know, not having to work very hard | 你知道 这种业态不用辛苦工作 |
| [07:30] | because machines are taking care of things for you, | 因为机器正帮你工作 |
| [07:33] | I mean, you see this also in the 19th century | 我的意思是 伴随着工业革命 |
| [07:35] | with the Industrial Revolution. | 你在19世纪也看到了这一点 |
| [07:36] | And, in fact, I think one of the problems | 事实上 我认为伴随着工业革命的 |
| [07:39] | with the Industrial Revolution, and this is where Marxism got so much traction, | 问题之一是机器真的使 |
| [07:43] | was that machines actually did render | 很多人失业了 吗 |
| [07:47] | a lot of people unemployed, okay? | 这就是马克思主义如此引人注目的地方 |
| [07:49] | That already happened in the 19th and 20th centuries. | 这已经发生在19世纪和20世纪 |
| [07:52] | And it was only by labor organizing itself | 只有劳工组织本身 |
| [07:55] | that it was able to kind of deal | 它能达成某种协议 |
| [07:56] | with the situation intelligently | 明智地应对这种形势 |
| [07:58] | because there was no automatic, you might say, | 你可以说 因为没有自动装置 |
| [08:00] | transition to something else. | 过渡到其他东西 |
| [08:02] | It was just, you know, “We don’t need you anymore. | 只是 你知道 我们不再需要你了 |
| [08:03] | We have these more efficient machines, | 我们有效率更高的机器 |
| [08:05] | and so now you just have to find work somewhere else.” | 所以现在你只能在别的地方找工作 |
| [08:08] | Automation clearly has been happening for a long time, | 自动化显然已经发生了很长时间 |
| [08:10] | and it has, you know, automated | 你知道 它可以自动化 |
| [08:13] | a lot of very laborious work that we don’t want to do, | 很多我们不想做的非常辛苦的工作 |
| [08:16] | and that’s gonna continue to be the case in the future, | 以后在未来还是会这样 |
| [08:18] | but I do think that this time is genuinely different. | 但我确实认为这一次会完全不同 |
| [08:21] | If we look at what’s happened historically, | 如果我们看看历史上发生的事情 |
| [08:23] | what we’ve seen is that automation | 我们看到的是自动化 |
| [08:25] | has primarily been a mechanical phenomenon, | 主要是机械现象 |
| [08:27] | and the classic example of that | 一个典型的例子 |
| [08:29] | is, of course, agriculture. | 当然是农业 |
| [08:30] | I’m a farmer. | 我是农民 |
| [08:32] | Here’s what mechanical engineering has done | 这就是机械工程 |
| [08:34] | for all of us who work on the farms | 为我们所有在农场工作的人做到的 |
| [08:36] | and for you, too. | 对你也一样 |
| [08:37] | It used to be, in the United States | 过去在美国 |
| [08:39] | and in most advanced countries, | 和大多数发达国家 |
| [08:40] | that most people worked on farms. | 大多数人在农场工作 |
| [08:42] | Now, almost no one works on a farm. | 现在 几乎没有人在农场工作 |
| [08:44] | It’s less than two percent. | 不到百分之二 |
| [08:45] | And, of course, as a result of that, we’re better off. | 当然 正因为如此 我们才过得更好 |
| [08:48] | We have, you know, more comfortable jobs, | 我们有更舒适的工作 |
| [08:51] | food is cheaper, | 食物更便宜 |
| [08:52] | we have a much more advanced society. | 我们有一个更先进的社会 |
| [08:54] | The question is, “Can that continue indefinitely?” | 问题是 这能无限期地持续下去吗 |
| [08:56] | And what we’re seeing this time | 这次我们看到的 |
| [08:57] | is that things are really quite different. | 是事情真的很不一样了 |
| [08:59] | If this keeps up, | 如果继续下去 |
| [09:01] | it won’t be long before machines will do everything. | 很快机器就会做好一切 |
| [09:04] | Nobody will have work. | 没有人会有工作 |
| [09:06] | So as we move deeper into the automated future, | 因此 随着我们深入到自动化的未来 |
| [09:06] | 格雷 斯科特 未来学家 技术哲学家 | |
| [09:10] | we will see different stages take form. | 我们将看到不同阶段的形成 |
| [09:13] | The first stage that we’re entering | 我们进入的第一阶段 |
| [09:15] | is the stage where automated robots are working | 是自动化机器人 |
| [09:18] | side by side with people in factories. | 和工厂里的人并肩作战的舞台 |
| [09:20] | Some of those jobs are slowly going away, | 有些工作正在慢慢消失 |
| [09:22] | but in the near future, within two to three years, | 但在不久的将来 在2到3年内 |
| [09:25] | you’re going to see a huge percentage | 你会看到很大一部分 |
| [09:28] | of those factory jobs be replaced | 在那些工厂里的工作被 |
| [09:29] | with automated systems and automated robots. | 自动化系统和自动化机器人所替代 |
| [09:33] | The next stage following that is we could see | 下一阶段我们可以看到 |
| [09:37] | up to a third of jobs in America | 到2025年 美国多达三分之一的 |
| [09:40] | be replaced by 2025 | 工作岗位将被 |
| [09:44] | by robots or automated systems. | 机器人或自动化系统所替代 |
| [09:46] | That’s a huge percentage of people | 将有相当大比例的人 |
| [09:48] | that could be unemployed | 会失业 |
| [09:49] | because of this automated tsunami | 这基本上都是拜 |
| [09:52] | that’s coming, basically. | 正在到来的自动化海啸所赐 |
| [09:53] | We have a colleague here called Carl Frey | 我们这里有个同事叫卡尔·弗雷 |
| [09:53] | 斯图尔特 阿姆斯特朗 博士 人工智能研究员 人类未来研究所 | |
| [09:56] | who has put together a list of jobs | 整理了一份工作清单 |
| [10:00] | by their vulnerability to getting replaced by automation, | 按照被自动化所取代的程度排列 |
| [10:04] | and the least vulnerable are things like choreographers, | 最不易被替代的工作像是编舞 |
| [10:08] | managers, social workers. | 经理 社工 |
| [10:10] | 斯图尔特 阿姆斯特朗 博士 人工智能研究员 人类未来研究所 | |
| [10:11] | People who have people skills | 善于人际交往的人 |
| [10:13] | and who have creativity. | 以及那些有创造力的人 |
| [10:19] | 分析的结果是全美有近47%的工作 在未来20年可能会被自动化所取代 | |
| [10:27] | One area that I look a lot at is fast food. | 我经常看到的一个领域是快餐 |
| [10:29] | I mean, the fast food industry is tremendously important | 我是说 快餐业非常重要 |
| [10:29] | 快餐业 全球岗位数量 超过1千万 | |
| [10:32] | in American economy. | 在美国经济中 |
| [10:33] | If you look at the years since recovery | 如果你看看从大萧条后 |
| [10:36] | from the Great Recession, | 复苏后的这些年 |
| [10:37] | the majority of jobs, somewhere around 60 percent, | 大部分工作 大约60%左右 |
| [10:40] | have been low-wage service sector jobs. | 一直以来都是低薪服务业的工作 |
| [10:43] | A lot of those have been in areas like fast food, | 很多人在类似快餐的领域工作 |
| [10:45] | and yet, to me, it seems almost inevitable | 但最终 快餐将实现自动化 |
| [10:48] | that, ultimately, fast food is gonna automate. | 在我看来 这几乎是不可避免的 |
| [10:51] | There’s a company right here in San Francisco | 在旧金山有一家公司 |
| [10:53] | called “Momentum Machines” which is actually working on | 被称为 动量机器 实际上是在研究 |
| [10:58] | a machine to automate hamburger production, | 自动化生产汉堡的机器 |
| [11:00] | and it can crank out about 400 gourmet hamburgers per hour, | 它可以生产每小时约400个美味汉堡包 |
| [11:06] | and they ultimately expect to sort of roll that out | 而且他们最终希望他们生产的机器 |
| [11:10] | not just in fast food establishments, | 不仅仅在快餐店 |
| [11:13] | perhaps in convenience stores | 还有便利店 |
| [11:15] | and maybe even vending machines. | 甚至可能是在自动售货机上应用 |
| [11:16] | It could be all over the place. | 它可能到处都是 |
| [11:23] | I can see manufacturing now becoming completely automated. | 我可以预见制造业现在完全自动化 |
| [11:23] | 制造业 全球岗位数量 超过2.5亿 | |
| [11:26] | I can see, you know, hundreds of millions of workers being put out of jobs, | 你知道 我可以预见数亿工人面临失业 |
| [11:29] | That’s almost certain it’s gonna happen. | 而且注定会发生 |
| [11:31] | So you have lots of companies right now that are automating | 所以现在有很多公司在自动化 |
| [11:33] | their factories and their warehouses. | 他们的工厂和仓库 |
| [11:35] | Amazon is a great example. | 亚马逊就是个典型例子 |
| [11:37] | They’re using robots to automate their systems. | 他们使用机器人自动操作系统 |
| [11:37] | 亚马逊以7.75亿美元收购 基瓦 系统 该收购证实了企业对机器人的看法在改变 | |
| [11:40] | The robots actually grab the products | 机器人能抓取物品 |
| [11:42] | and bring the products to the people | 将物品送到员工手中 |
| [11:43] | who put those products into the box. | 员工再将物品装包 |
| [11:45] | So there are still people | 因此亚马逊工厂内 |
| [11:47] | within the factories at Amazon, | 依然保留员工 |
| [11:49] | but in the near future, those jobs may go away as well. | 但在不远的将来 这些工作也会消失 |
| [11:52] | There is a company here in Silicon Valley | 硅谷有家公司 |
| [11:55] | called “Industrial Perception,” | 叫做 工业知觉 |
| [11:57] | and they built a robot that can approach | 他们生产的机器人 |
| [12:00] | a stack of boxes that are sort of stacked haphazardly | 能将一堆七零八落 随意堆放的包裹 |
| [12:03] | in some nonstandard way | 进行整理 |
| [12:05] | and visually, by looking at that stack of boxes, | 通过观察那堆包裹 |
| [12:08] | figure out how to move those boxes. | 机器人能理解如何整理这些包裹 |
| [12:10] | And they built a machine that ultimately | 这家公司还开发了一种设备 |
| [12:12] | will be able to move perhaps one box every second, | 最终也许每秒就能整理一个包裹 |
| [12:16] | and that compares with about three seconds | 相比之下非常勤劳的员工 |
| [12:18] | for a human worker who’s very industrious. | 也需要约三秒才能完成 |
| [12:21] | Okay, and this machine, you can imagine, | 你能想象 这种设备 |
| [12:23] | will work continuously. | 能持续工作 |
| [12:24] | It’s never gonna get injured, | 它不会受伤 |
| [12:26] | never file a workers’ compensation claim, | 不会要求报销工伤 |
| [12:29] | and, yet, it’s moving into an area | 但是它正在进入一个这个产业 |
| [12:31] | that, up until now, at least, we would have said | 而这个领域 至少到目前为止 |
| [12:34] | is really something that is exclusively | 我们认为这一直是一个完全 |
| [12:37] | the province of the human worker. | 由人力主导的产业 |
| [12:39] | I mean, | 我的意思是 |
| [12:39] | it’s this ability to look at something | 这种能力可以根据你所看到的东西 |
| [12:43] | and then based on what you see, | 然后根据你所看到的东西 |
| [12:45] | manipulate your environment. | 来操纵你的环境 |
| [12:47] | It’s sort of the confluence | 这是视觉认知与敏捷反应的 |
| [12:49] | of visual perception and dexterity. | 完美结合 |
| [12:55] | We’ll see self-driving cars on the road | 在未来10到15年内我们就将 |
| [12:57] | 运输业 全球岗位数量 超过6千万 | |
| [12:57] | within 10 or 15 years. | 在路上看到自动驾驶汽车 |
| [12:59] | Fifteen years from now, we’ll be debating | 15年内 我们将探讨 |
| [13:01] | whether we should even allow human beings to be | 是否甚至应该允许 |
| [13:03] | be on the road at all. | 人们走上马路 |
| [13:05] | Tesla says that by next year, | 特斯拉说到明年 |
| [13:07] | that, you know, their cars will be 90 percent automated. | 他们的车90%都有自动驾驶功能 |
| [13:11] | Which means that the jobs of taxi drivers, | 意味着出租车司机 |
| [13:14] | truck drivers, goes away. | 卡车司机都要下岗了 |
| [13:16] | Suddenly, we don’t need to own cars anymore. | 一瞬间 我们不再需要买车了 |
| [13:18] | 维韦克 瓦德瓦 学者 企业家 | |
| [13:19] | Humanity isn’t ready for such a basic change such as that. | 人们并未对这个根本改变做好准备 |
| [13:24] | Call center jobs, voice recognition | 呼叫中心 语音识别 |
| [13:26] | is pretty sophisticated these days. | 目前仍非常复杂 |
| [13:26] | 客户服务 全球岗位数量 逾4千万 | |
| [13:28] | And you can imagine replacing many kinds of, | 你能想象代替许多种 |
| [13:31] | 穆雷·沙纳罕 认知机器人专家 帝国理工学院 | |
| [13:32] | you know, helplines and things. | 那种支持热线之类的工作 |
| [13:34] | There’s a company called “IPsoft” that has created | 有家叫IPsoft的公司 |
| [13:37] | an intelligent software system, | 开发了一款智能软件系统 |
| [13:40] | an automated system, called “Amelia.” | 一款名为阿米莉亚的自动化系统 |
| [13:42] | She can not only understand what you’re saying to her, | 她不仅能听懂你说的话 |
| [13:45] | she understands the context of what you’re saying, | 理解你说的语境 |
| [13:48] | and she can learn from her mistakes. | 她还能从自身错误中自我学习 |
| [13:50] | This is a huge deal because what we’re going to see | 这可不得了 因为我们将看到 |
| [13:52] | is all of the customer service agent jobs, | 所有客服类岗位 |
| [13:55] | if she is successful, if this software program, | 如果这套软件成功了 |
| [13:57] | this automated software program is successful, | 如果这套自动化软件真的成功了 |
| [14:00] | we could see all of those jobs go away. | 那所有这类工作都要消失了 |
| [14:03] | These things tend to go to marginal cost, | 这些软件的使用趋近于边际成本 |
| [14:05] | and marginal cost is copying software, which is nothing, | 而边际成本是没成本的软件复制和 |
| [14:08] | and running it on a computer | 成本也许非常低廉的 |
| [14:10] | which will probably be very cheap. | 计算机运行 |
| [14:16] | Human doctors will be, in some respect, pushed aside | 医生们在某些情况下拒绝这些软件 |
| [14:16] | 医疗行业 全球岗位数量 逾1亿 | |
| [14:20] | because machines can do a better job | 因为机器的诊断能力 |
| [14:21] | of diagnosis than they can. | 比他们更胜一筹 |
| [14:23] | Now will they have the empathy that current doctors do? | 现在机器会像现在的医生一样有同理心吗 |
| [14:25] | I don’t know, but at least they’ll have the knowledge | 我不知道 但至少医生掌握的知识 |
| [14:27] | that our doctors do, they’ll be more advanced, | 机器也会掌握 而且更先进 |
| [14:28] | so I can see this option in healthcare. | 所以我能看到在医疗行业存在这种可能 |
| [14:30] | The one that is likely to be the biggest growth area, | 从经济角度来说机器人同伴 |
| [14:32] | from an economic standpoint, is the android companions | 也许是发展最快的领域 |
| [14:36] | to help elderly people, okay, because there’s… | 他们能帮助老年人 因为 |
| [14:39] | you know, given the rise in elderly people | 你知道 由于将来20至30年内 |
| [14:41] | over the next 20, 30 years, that it’s… | 老龄化日益严重 |
| [14:44] | and it’s unlikely there are gonna be enough people | 护理行业可能会 |
| [14:46] | going into the nursing profession | 供不应求 |
| [14:48] | to actually serve them, especially if we’re thinking | 为了照顾老年人 尤其考虑到 |
| [14:51] | in terms of home-based care. | 在家庭护理这一方面 |
| [14:54] | The robot surgeon, I think, is something that will happen | 我认为机器人外科医生 |
| [14:57] | in the not-too-distant future | 在不久将来就会出现 |
| [14:59] | because a lot of that is to do with manual dexterity | 因为这很大程度上与手工灵活度有关 |
| [15:04] | and having the expertise to recognize… | 并且具有识别并理解作为一名外科医生 |
| [15:08] | to understand what you’re manipulating as a surgeon. | 需要如何操作的专业知识 |
| [15:12] | Terrific amount of expertise for a human to accumulate, | 人们需要积累不计其数的专业知识 |
| [15:16] | but I can imagine that we would be able to build | 但是我能想象我们能开发 |
| [15:17] | something that is a specialized robot surgeon | 专业机器人外科医生 |
| [15:20] | that can carry out particular operations | 能进行专业手术 |
| [15:22] | such as a prostate operation. | 例如前列腺手术 |
| [15:24] | That’s one that people are working on right now, | 人们目前就在开发这种机器人 |
| [15:26] | and I think they’re nearly there | 我相信不久就能 |
| [15:28] | of being able to produce | 造出值得信赖的机器人外科医生 |
| [15:29] | a reliable robot surgeon that can do that. | 完成这些手术了 |
| [15:31] | You might not want to submit yourself to this thing, | 也许你不愿接受这种变化 |
| [15:33] | you might think, but in fact, I think we’ll be able to make | 但事实上 我觉得我们能造出 |
| [15:35] | a very reliable robot surgeon to do that sort of thing. | 非常可靠的机器人外科医生完成这些工作 |
| [15:45] | I can see this option in finance | 我在金融行业看到这一变化 |
| [15:46] | 金融业 全球岗位数量 超过3千万 | |
| [15:47] | because they’re moving to digital currencies. | 因为金融行业正在迈入数字货币时代 |
| [15:49] | And we’re now moving to crowdfunding | 我们正在经历众筹 |
| [15:52] | and crowdbanking and all these other advances. | 融资以及所有其他发展 |
| [15:55] | One of my favorites is investment bankers. | 我最欣赏的岗位之一就是投行职员 |
| [15:58] | Artificial intelligence already does more | 现在人工智能已经比人类 |
| [16:02] | stock market trades today than any human being. | 完成更多的股市交易 |
| [16:04] | Lots of decisions like decisions about mortgages and insurance, | 许多决策 诸如贷款和保险 |
| [16:09] | already those things have been, | 这些工作 |
| [16:11] | you know, largely taken over by programs, | 你知道 大部分已经被程序取代 |
| [16:13] | and I think that kind of trend is only gonna continue. | 我认为这一趋势将势不可挡 |
| [16:27] | Every time there’s a technological change, | 每当科技变革来临时 |
| [16:30] | it will, unfortunately, put a lot of people out of work. | 很多人都会不幸地失业 |
| [16:32] | It happened with the cotton gin. | 轧棉机的发明就是如此 |
| [16:34] | It’s happened with every single technological change. | 每一次科技变革来临时都是如此 |
| [16:37] | So, sure, technology destroys jobs, | 所以 科技当然会淘汰工作岗位 |
| [16:41] | but it creates new ones. | 但也会带来新的岗位 |
| [16:42] | Moving from the age of work that we’re in now | 从我们目前的工作时代 |
| [16:45] | into the abundant, ubiquitous automation age, | 进入大规模无所不在的自动化时代 |
| [16:49] | that bridge that we have to cross | 我们要渡过的 |
| [16:52] | is gonna be a very interesting time period. | 是一段非常有趣的时光 |
| [16:54] | I think in the very beginning of that time period, | 我想一开始时 |
| [16:57] | you’re going to see automation start to replace jobs, | 你会看到自动化取代人力工作 |
| [17:00] | 自动或灭亡 成功的企业能优化人力 机器人与算法这三者的结合 自动或灭亡 | |
| [17:01] | but those jobs will transfer into other forms of work. | 但是这些工作会转化成其他工作 |
| [17:04] | So, for example, instead of working in a factory, | 举个例子 你不用在工厂工作 |
| [17:07] | you will learn to code and you will code the robots | 你需要学习写代码 |
| [17:10] | that are working in the factory. | 对工厂里的机器人进行编码 |
| [17:12] | When I was a young man and I went for careers advice, | 当我年轻时 我去寻求职业规划咨询 |
| [17:15] | I don’t know what they would have made of me | 我不知道他们怎么看 |
| [17:17] | asking for a job as a webmaster. | 我申请一份网管的工作 |
| [17:21] | It didn’t exist, there wasn’t a web at that time. | 这种工作不存在 那时候没有网络 |
| [17:24] | And, right now, we have over 200,000 vacancies | 现在我们有超过20万个 |
| [17:27] | for people who can analyze big data. | 大数据分析岗位虚位以待 |
| [17:29] | And we really do need people | 我们真切需要 |
| [17:31] | and mechanisms for analyzing it | 会进行分析的人才和设备 |
| [17:33] | and getting the most information from that data, | 从大数据中获得最多的信息 |
| [17:37] | and that problem is only gonna increase in the future. | 未来这一缺口只会有增无减 |
| [17:40] | And I do think that there’s gonna be a lot of employment | 我确信这是许多岗位 |
| [17:42] | moving in that direction. | 趋势所在 |
| [17:49] | The history of our country proves that new inventions | 我们国家的历史表明新发明 |
| [17:51] | create thousands of jobs for every one they displace. | 淘汰一个岗位就会创造成千上万个新岗位 |
| [17:55] | So it wasn’t long before your grandfather had a better job | 所以不久前你爷爷得到一份更好的工作 |
| [17:59] | at more pay for less work. | 钱多事少 |
| [18:02] | We’re always offered this solution | 我们一直在接受 |
| [18:03] | of still more education, still more training. | 更多教育 更多培训 |
| [18:06] | If people lose their routine job, | 如果人们失业 |
| [18:07] | then let’s send them back to school. | 那就让他们重回课堂 |
| [18:09] | They’ll pick up some new skills, | 他们将学会新技能 |
| [18:10] | they’ll learn something new, and then they’ll be able | 学会了新技能 他们就能 |
| [18:12] | to move into some more rewarding career. | 获得更有前景的职业 |
| [18:14] | That’s not gonna operate so well in the future | 在未来的机器时代 |
| [18:16] | where the machines are coming | 这一做法不会那么顺利 |
| [18:18] | for those skilled jobs as well. | 对技术要求较高的工作也是如此 |
| [18:20] | The fact is that machines are really good at | 实际上 机器非常擅长 |
| [18:21] | picking up skills and doing all kinds | 学习新技能 |
| [18:23] | of extraordinarily complex things, | 完成各种无比复杂的工作 |
| [18:25] | so those jobs aren’t necessarily | 所以这些工作 |
| [18:26] | gonna be there either. | 也不必存在 |
| [18:28] | And a second insight, I think, is that historically, | 深入观察后 我认为实际情况是 |
| [18:31] | it’s always been the case that the vast majority of people | 绝大多数人都是完成日常重复工作 |
| [18:34] | have always done routine work. | 历来如此 |
| [18:35] | So even if people can make that transition, | 所以即使人们能进行转型 |
| [18:38] | if they can succeed in going back to school | 即使他们能重返课堂 |
| [18:40] | and learning something new, in percentage terms, | 学习新技能的话 从百分比上说 |
| [18:42] | those jobs don’t constitute | 这些工作在所有工作岗位中 |
| [18:44] | that much of the total employment out there. | 占的比重也不会很大 |
| [18:46] | I mean, most people are doing these more routine things. | 我是说 大部分人都是重复日常劳动 |
| [18:48] | So, you know, we’re up against a real problem | 所以我们要面对一个现实问题 |
| [18:50] | that’s probably gonna require a political solution. | 这可能需要一个政治方案 |
| [18:53] | It’s probably going to require direct redistribution. | 可能需要直接再分配 |
| [18:57] | That’s my take on it, | 这是我的观点 |
| [18:59] | and that’s a staggering political challenge, | 这是一个严肃的政治问题 |
| [19:02] | especially in the United States. | 尤其在美国 |
| [19:04] | This would be fine if we had generations | 如果我们这一代人能适应变革 |
| [19:06] | to adapt to the change so that the next generation | 使下一代人过上不同的生活 |
| [19:10] | could develop a different lifestyle, | 拥有不同的价值观 |
| [19:11] | different value system. | 那就太好了 |
| [19:13] | The problem is that all of this is happening | 问题是所有这些都 |
| [19:15] | within the same generation. | 发生在一代人之内 |
| [19:16] | Within a period of 15 years, | 在15年内 |
| [19:17] | we’re gonna start wiping out most of the jobs that we know. | 大部分我们了解的工作都将逐步消失 |
| [19:21] | That’s really what worries me. | 这真的让我忧心忡忡 |
| [19:23] | A term commonly used when describing the trajectory | 有一个常用术语描述这种 |
| [19:27] | of technological progress and where it’s leading us | 科技进步的轨迹及引领的最终目的地 |
| [19:30] | is the “technological singularity.” | 叫做技术奇点 |
| [19:33] | The term is borrowed from physics | 这一术语来源于物理学 |
| [19:35] | to describe an event horizon or a moment in space time | 用来描述视野尽头的事件 |
| [19:39] | that you cannot see beyond. | 或时空中无法看穿的时刻 |
| [19:41] | We are currently in the transistor era | 目前我们正处在 |
| [19:43] | of information technology. | 信息科技的晶体管时期 |
| [19:45] | In 1965, co-founder of Intel, | 1965年英特尔联合创始人 |
| [19:48] | Gordon Moore, | 戈登·摩尔 |
| [19:50] | made the observation that the processing power | 发现计算机处理能力 |
| [19:52] | of computers doubles every 18 months. | 每18个月就会翻倍 |
| [19:56] | The prediction that this trend will continue | 这一趋势将持续下去 |
| [19:58] | is known as Moore’s Law. | 这一预言叫做摩尔定律 |
| [20:00] | When Intel created | 当英特尔于1971年 |
| [20:02] | their first computer processing unit in 1971, | 开发出首款计算机芯片时 |
| [20:06] | it has 2,300 transistors | 内置2300个晶体管 |
| [20:09] | and had a processing speed of 740 kilohertz. | 处理速度达740千赫 |
| [20:13] | Today, a typical CPU has over a billion transistors | 现在一颗典型的CPU拥有超过 |
| [20:18] | with an average speed of two gigahertz. | 10亿个晶体管 平均速度达2兆赫 |
| [20:21] | However, many predict that by 2020, | 然而 许多人预言到2020年 |
| [20:24] | the miniaturization of transistors and silicon chips | 晶体管与硅芯片的微型化 |
| [20:27] | will reach its limit, | 会达到极限 |
| [20:29] | and Moore’s Law will fizzle out into a post-silicon era. | 摩尔定律将在后硅时代失效 |
| [20:34] | Another way of describing the term | 技术奇点的 |
| [20:36] | “technological singularity” | 另一种解释是 |
| [20:38] | is a time when artificial intelligence | 当人工智能超越 |
| [20:41] | surpasses human intellectual capacity. | 人类智商的时刻 |
| [20:44] | But does this mean that a computer | 但这是否意味着计算机 |
| [20:46] | can produce a new idea | 会产生新的想法 |
| [20:48] | or make an original contribution to knowledge? | 或对知识有自己的贡献 |
| [20:51] | Artificial intelligence, AI, is a longstanding project | 人工智能是一项长期工程 |
| [20:54] | which has to do with basically trying | 说白了就是让机器 |
| [20:57] | to use machines as a way of trying to understand | 试图理解 |
| [20:59] | the nature of intelligence | 智力的本质 |
| [21:01] | and, originally, the idea was, in some sense, | 从某些方面来说这一概念一开始是 |
| [21:03] | to manufacture within machines | 用机器来进行生产 |
| [21:05] | something that could simulate human intelligence. | 让其模拟人类智力 |
| [21:08] | But I think now, as the years have gone on, | 但我想现在 随着时代发展 |
| [21:10] | we now think in terms of intelligence | 我们对智能的理解 |
| [21:12] | in a much more abstract way, | 抽象了许多 |
| [21:13] | so the ability to engage in massive computations, | 因此进行大规模计算的能力 |
| [21:17] | right, where you can end up making | 是的 最终机器能 |
| [21:18] | quite intelligent decisions much more quickly | 做出非常聪明的选择 |
| [21:21] | than a human being can. | 速度远非人类所能及 |
| [21:22] | So in this respect, artificial intelligence | 所以在这方面 人工智能 |
| [21:24] | in a sense is a, you might say, | 在某种程度上意味着 |
| [21:26] | as trying to go to the next level of intelligence | 努力超越人类 |
| [21:29] | beyond the human. | 达到更高级别的智力 |
| [21:31] | A proper AI could substitute | 一个聪明的人工智能能替代 |
| [21:33] | for practically any human job at some level of skill, | 某些技能程度上所有人力工作 |
| [21:38] | so it’s… it would be | 所以 这将是 |
| [21:40] | a completely different situation. | 一个截然不同的情况 |
| [21:42] | You can imagine any kind of job could, | 想象一下 如果能开发出 |
| [21:45] | in theory, be replaced by technology, | 人类级别的人工智能 |
| [21:48] | if you build human-level AI. | 理论上任何工作都能被取代 |
| [21:50] | Now that, of course, may or may not be a good thing. | 目前来讲 当然了 无法评定好坏 |
| [21:54] | You’d be able to, for example, make robots | 你会去 举个例子 制作一些机器人 |
| [21:57] | that could do all kinds of jobs | 完成各种各样的工作 |
| [21:59] | that humans don’t necessarily want to do. | 这些工作是人类不想自己处理的工作 |
| [22:01] | There are the so-called three D’s jobs | 会有些所谓的”三低”的工作 |
| [22:04] | that are dirty, dangerous, or dull, | 那些肮脏的 危险的 繁重低效的 |
| [22:06] | which humans might not want to do, | 那些没人愿意去做的 |
| [22:08] | and yet, where you might actually want | 但是你又不得不让 |
| [22:11] | a human level of intelligence | 一个智力正常的人类 |
| [22:12] | to do the job well or do the job properly. | 去尽可能完成的工作 |
| [22:14] | These are things which are achievable. | 这些情况都是可能发生的 |
| [22:16] | Yeah. This isn’t something… | 是的 那并不是某些 |
| [22:18] | I don’t think it’s science fiction. | 我不觉得那是科幻小说 |
| [22:19] | I think this is entirely feasible | 我觉得那是完全有可能实现的 |
| [22:19] | 埃隆·马斯克和马克·扎克伯格投资 4000万美元在一家神秘的人工智能公司 | |
| [22:21] | that we could build a computer | 我们甚至可以创造一种计算机 |
| [22:23] | which is vastly superhuman | 拥有远超人类的能力 |
| [22:25] | which is conscious, which has emotions, | 拥有自我意识和人类情感 |
| [22:28] | which is, essentially, a new species | 从本质上讲 是一个全新的地球物种 |
| [22:30] | 伊恩 皮尔森 未来学家 | |
| [22:31] | of self-aware intelligence and conscious in every way | 在各个方面都拥有自我学习和自我认知的能力 |
| [22:34] | and has got emotions the same as you and I do. | 并且就像你和我一样拥有着人类情感 |
| [22:36] | I don’t see any fundamental limits on what we can do, | 我没发现任何能够限制人类行为的东西 |
| [22:38] | and we already know enough | 并且我们现在已经知道的够多了 |
| [22:41] | about basic science to start doing that now. | 关于做这件事情的基础科学理论 |
| [22:44] | So some people are concerned about, | 所以很多人都比较关心 |
| [22:47] | you know, possible risks of building AI | 关于冒险创造人工智能 |
| [22:51] | and building something that is very, very powerful | 和那些拥有强大能力的物体 |
| [22:54] | where there are unintended consequences | 会带来不可预知的后果 |
| [22:56] | of the thing that you’ve built and where it might | 那些你创造出的东西有可能会 |
| [22:59] | do things that you can’t predict | 做一些你无法预知的事情 |
| [23:00] | that might be extremely dangerous. | 那将是非常危险的 |
| [23:02] | 存在风险 牛津大学人类未来研究院的院长尼克•博斯特罗姆博士 在他的2002年的论文里提出的一个术语 | |
| [23:02] | So a so-called “existential risk,” | 所以这是一种所谓的 存在风险 |
| [23:04] | as some people call it. | 就像有些人宣称的那样 |
| [23:06] | We are going to hand off to our machines | 我们将委托我们的那些机器 |
| [23:06] | 彼得 科克兰 未来学家 企业家 | |
| [23:08] | all the multidimensional problems | 去处理全部的复杂的问题 |
| [23:11] | that we are incapable of coping with. | 那些我们人类无法解决的问题 |
| [23:13] | You and I can take a problem with two or three | 你和我可以去解决一个拥有2个或者3个 |
| [23:16] | or four or even seven inputs. | 或者4个甚至7个输入参数的问题 |
| [23:19] | But 300? | 但如果300个参数呢 |
| [23:20] | A thousand, a million inputs? | 一千个呢 一百万个输入参数呢 |
| [23:22] | We’re dead in the water. | 我们会被数据淹死的 |
| [23:24] | The machines can cope with that. | 此时机器却能应付这种情况 |
| [23:26] | The advantage that computers have | 计算机体系所拥有的优势 |
| [23:27] | is that they communicate at gigabit speeds. | 是他们之间高达千兆的传输速度 |
| [23:30] | They all network together. | 他们都是广播网络的节点 |
| [23:32] | We talk in slow motion. | 我们聊天就像慢镜头一样 |
| [23:33] | So computers will achieve this level of awareness | 所以计算机体系也许会达到这种水平 |
| [23:37] | probably in the next 20, 30, 40 years. | 在接下来的20或者30或者40年里 |
| [23:39] | It’s not that if it’s good or that it’s evil. | 这里并没有所谓的正义与邪恶 |
| [23:43] | It’s we’re probably good enough | 也许我们可能已经够好了 |
| [23:44] | to not program an evil AI. | 没必要再去编写一个邪恶的人工智能 |
| [23:46] | It’s that if it’s lethally indifferent. | 如果那是一种极端的忽视 |
| [23:50] | If it has certain things | 如果那是必然得结果 |
| [23:52] | that it’s tasked with accomplishing | 这就是正在解决的问题 |
| [23:55] | and humans are in the way. | 并且人类将为此不断前行 |
| [23:57] | So there’s this concern that once we reach that moment | 所以人们有一种忧虑就是当我们到达了 |
| [24:00] | where the computers outperform us | 计算机超过我们的时候 |
| [24:02] | in ways that are quite meaningful, | 从某种意义上 |
| [24:05] | that then they will somehow be motivated to dispose of us | 那时候它们会用某种手段将我们统统处理掉 |
| [24:08] | or take over us or something of this kind. | 或者接管我们的生活或者类似的事情 |
| [24:11] | I don’t really believe that | 我是不相信这种说法的 |
| [24:13] | because these kinds of developments, | 因为所有的这些事情的进展 |
| [24:15] | which probably are a little farther off in the future | 即使对于那些狂热的猜想者也是 |
| [24:17] | than some of their enthusiasts think, | 遥不可及的 |
| [24:19] | there will be time for us to adapt, | 我们会有大把的时间去适应它 |
| [24:21] | to come to terms with it, to organize social systems | 去接纳它 并且制定社会制度 |
| [24:24] | that will enable us to deal adequately | 来妥善处理 |
| [24:26] | with these new forms of intelligence. | 这些新兴的智慧体 |
| [24:28] | So I don’t think this is not just gonna be something | 所以我不认为这仅仅是一件普通事 |
| [24:30] | that’s gonna happen as a miracle tomorrow | 那是未来将会发生的奇迹 |
| [24:32] | and then we’ll be taken by surprise. | 然后我们都会大吃一惊 |
| [24:34] | But I do think the key thing here is | 但是我真的认为关键的事情是 |
| [24:36] | that we need to treat these futuristic things | 我们需要把这些未来的东西 |
| [24:39] | as not as far away as people say they are. | 看得不像人们说的那么遥远 |
| [24:42] | Just because they’re not likely to happen | 仅仅因为他们不会在15年内 |
| [24:44] | in 15 years, let’s say, | 出现 我们假设 |
| [24:45] | it doesn’t mean they won’t happen in 50 years. | 但那不意味着他们不会在50年内出现 |
| [24:47] | It’s gonna be of kind of historical dimensions, | 从历史的角度来看 |
| [24:51] | and it’s very hard to predict, I think, | 这是不可预言的 我认为 |
| [24:53] | whether it’s gonna take us in a utopian direction | 它是否会把我们带向乌托邦的方向 |
| [24:57] | or in a dystopian direction | 或者带向反方向 |
| [24:59] | or more likely something in between, | 或者其他处在这两者之间的某些 |
| [25:02] | but just very different. | 不同的方向 |
| [25:03] | Very hard to predict. | 很难预测 |
| [25:05] | You see, it’s our job to take raw materials, | 你们看 这就是我们的工作 获取原材料 |
| [25:07] | adapt them to useful forms, | 向有用的方向引导它们 |
| [25:09] | take natural forces, harness them to do man’s work. | 利用自然的力量驾驭它们做人类的工作 |
| [25:12] | The automated systems of the future | 未来的自动化系统 |
| [25:14] | are a natural process of human innovation. | 是人类生产流程的创新 |
| [25:18] | It all comes back to the idea of doing more with less. | 它基于在增大产出的同时减少成本的想法 |
| [25:22] | This process of innovation | 这个创新的进程 |
| [25:24] | is driven not by necessity, but desire, | 不是来自必需 而是欲望 |
| [25:27] | or to simply fill a gap in the market. | 或者只是填补市场空白 |
| [25:31] | Farm owners didn’t really need to replace | 农场主其实不需要用机器 |
| [25:33] | their workers with machines, but they did so | 来替换他们的工人 但他们这样做了 |
| [25:36] | because they could foresee the benefits. | 因为他们可以预见到效益 |
| [25:39] | It’s a natural cycle of business. | 这是商业的自然循环 |
| [25:41] | Doing more with less leads to greater prosperity. | 用更少的钱做更多的事会带来更大的成功 |
| [25:46] | The hope is that we can adapt to this | 一个期望就是我们能接受这种情况 |
| [25:48] | politically and socially. | 从政治和社会两方面 |
| [25:48] | 马丁 福特 企业家 《机器人崛起》作者 | |
| [25:49] | In order to do that, | 为了做到这一点 |
| [25:50] | we have to begin a conversation now. | 我们现在必须开始一场对话 |
| [25:52] | Remember that we’re up against | 切记我们面临的挑战 |
| [25:54] | an exponential arc of progress. | 是指数级的科技进步 |
| [25:56] | Things are gonna keep moving faster and faster, | 所有的事物都会变得越来越快 |
| [25:59] | so we need to start talking about this now | 所以我们现在要开始讨论这个问题 |
| [26:01] | and we need to sort of get the word out there | 我们得把这个观点提出来 |
| [26:03] | so that people will realize | 让人们认识到 |
| [26:04] | that this problem is coming at us, | 这个危机即将到来 |
| [26:06] | so that we can begin to discuss | 以便我们开始讨论 |
| [26:08] | viable political solutions to this | 针对这件事的可行的政治解决方案 |
| [26:10] | because, again, I think it will require, | 因为 重申 我认为这件事需要 |
| [26:13] | ultimately, a political choice. | 一个最终的政治选择 |
| [26:14] | It’s not something that is gonna sort itself out | 它不会自行解决 |
| [26:18] | by itself as a result of the normal functioning | 并在正常运转下的市场经济中 |
| [26:21] | of the market economy. | 得到答案 |
| [26:23] | It’s something that will require | 一定程度的介入与干涉 |
| [26:25] | some sort of an intervention | 是必须的 |
| [26:26] | and, you know, part of the problem is | 而且 你知道 问题之一是 |
| [26:28] | that in the United States, | 在美国 |
| [26:29] | roughly half of the population is very conservative | 大约一半的人口非常保守 |
| [26:32] | and they really don’t believe in this idea | 他们真的不相信市场干预 |
| [26:35] | of intervention in the market. | 这个想法 |
| [26:37] | It’s gonna be a tough transition, | 这将是一个艰难的过渡期 |
| [26:38] | 佐尔坦 伊斯特万 新闻工作者 超人类主义者 | |
| [26:39] | and those that find themselves out of jobs | 而且那些失业的人会发现 |
| [26:42] | because a robot has taken it | 机器抢了他们的饭碗 |
| [26:44] | are gonna be pretty pissed off. | 他们会很生气的 |
| [26:45] | The effect of automation on jobs and livelihood | 自动化技术对工作和生活的影响 |
| [26:49] | 卢德运动 约在1779年工人卢德 首先奋起捣毁自己操作的机器 后参加者日益增多，史称“卢德运动” | |
| [26:49] | is going to be behind this like the original Luddites. | 将成为类似原先卢德运动一样的幕后黑手 |
| [26:52] | It wasn’t… it wasn’t that they were against | 其实 并不是说他们在某种 |
| [26:55] | technological developments in some ethereal sense. | 意义上反对技术的发展 |
| [26:58] | It was that this was taking their damn jobs. | 只是因为它顶替了他们那该死的工作 |
| [27:01] | I absolutely think there could be a Neo-Luddite movement | 我绝对认为会有一场新卢德派运动 |
| [27:01] | 佐尔坦 伊斯特万 新闻工作者 超人类主义者 | |
| [27:03] | against the future, against technology | 进而 反对未来 反对技术 |
| [27:06] | because they’re gonna say, | 因为他们会说 |
| [27:07] | “Well, hey, you’re taking our jobs, | 嘿 你在抢我们的饭碗 |
| [27:08] | 佐尔坦 伊斯特万 新闻工作者 超人类主义者 | |
| [27:08] | you’re taking our livelihoods away. | 你在剥夺我们的生活 |
| [27:10] | You’re taking everything away from us.” | 你把我们的一切都抢走了 |
| [27:12] | But I think that’s when it’s gonna be important | 但我认为那时最重要的一点是 |
| [27:14] | that leaders and government step in and say, | 领导人和政府介入并说 |
| [27:17] | “It may seem that way, | 看起来确实是这样 |
| [27:18] | but life is going to get better for everyone.” | 但每个人的生活会变得更好 |
| [27:20] | We’re gonna have more time to do things that we want, | 我们会有更多的时间去做我们想做的事情 |
| [27:23] | more vacations, more passions. | 更多的假期 更多的羁绊 |
| [27:24] | This is the modern world. | 这就是现代世界 |
| [27:26] | We can create the utopia that we’ve always dreamt of. | 我们可以创造我们一直梦寐以求的乌托邦 |
| [27:29] | Why are we saying, “My job’s not safe,” | 为什么我们经常说 我的工作不安全 |
| [27:32] | or, “Automation’s going to steal my jobs”? | 或者 自动化会偷走我的工作 |
| [27:35] | These are the… these are the phrases | 这些是 这些是措辞 |
| [27:37] | that keep getting pushed out there. | 一直被提出来 |
| [27:39] | They’re negative phrases, | 它们是否定的措辞 |
| [27:40] | and instead, it seems that we would look at this, | 相反 我们应该看看这个 |
| [27:43] | especially if someone has been working in a factory | 尤其是如果某人一生都在 |
| [27:45] | their whole life, | 工厂工作 |
| [27:46] | that they would look at that system and say, | 他们会看看这个系统然后说 |
| [27:48] | “Thank goodness that this is starting to be automated.” | 感谢上帝 这已经开始自动化了 |
| [27:51] | I don’t want anyone to have to crawl | 我不想任何人必须得 |
| [27:53] | into a hole in the ground and pull up coal. | 爬进一个地洞里才能把煤拉上来 |
| [27:56] | No human being should have to go do that. | 任何人都不应该这样做 |
| [27:59] | If you make an awful lot of computers | 如果你制造大量的计算机 |
| [28:01] | and a lot of robots, and the computers can make | 还有很多机器人 这样的话 电脑可以 |
| [28:04] | those robots very sophisticated | 制造那些非常复杂的机器人 |
| [28:05] | and do lots of sophisticated jobs, | 并且指挥它们做很多复杂的工作 |
| [28:07] | you could eliminate most of the high-value physical jobs | 你可以减少大部分高强度的体力工作 |
| [28:10] | and also most of the high-value intellectual jobs. | 以及大部分高价值的脑力工作 |
| [28:13] | What you’re left with, then, are those jobs | 而你需要做的工作是 |
| [28:15] | where you have to be a human being, | 那些你作为人类必须要做的事 |
| [28:17] | so I find it quite paradoxical in some ways | 所以我觉得这在某些方面很矛盾 |
| [28:19] | that the more advanced the technology becomes, | 技术越先进 |
| [28:21] | the more it forces us to become humans. | 它越迫使我们成为人类 |
| [28:24] | So in some ways, it’s very good. | 所以在某些方面 这很好 |
| [28:25] | It forces us to explore what is humanity about? | 它迫使我们去探索人性到底是什么 |
| [28:28] | What are the fundamentally important | 做为一个人 什么才是最根本 |
| [28:29] | things about being a human? | 最重要的事情 |
| [28:30] | It’s not being able to, you know, flip a burger | 那不可能是 你知道的 把汉堡翻过来 |
| [28:33] | or, you know, carve something intricately. | 或者 你知道 雕刻一些复杂的东西 |
| [28:36] | A computer or a robot | 计算机或机器人 |
| [28:37] | could do that far better than a human being. | 能比人类做得更好 |
| [28:39] | One thing I’ve noticed, if you talk to techno-optimists | 我注意到一件事 如果你和技术乐观派交谈 |
| [28:42] | about the future of work and how it’s gonna unfold, | 关于未来的工作以及它将如何展开 |
| [28:45] | very often they will focus on this issue | 他们时常会关注一个问题 |
| [28:47] | of how will we all be fulfilled in the future? | 那就是 未来我们将如何得到满足 |
| [28:50] | What will be our purpose in life | 我们的人生目标是什么 |
| [28:52] | when we don’t want to work? | 我们什么时候不再想工作 |
| [28:53] | And, you know, you can sort of posit this | 而且 你知道 你可以这样假设 |
| [28:56] | in terms of… there was a guy named Maslow | 就像 这里有个叫马斯洛的人 |
| [28:58] | who came up with a hierarchy of human needs, | 他提出了人类个体需求的等级制度 |
| [29:01] | Maslow’s pyramid. | 马斯洛金字塔 |
| [29:02] | And at the base of that pyramid | 在金字塔的底部 |
| [29:04] | are the foundational things like food and shelter, | 是基本的东西 比如食物和住所 |
| [29:07] | and at the top of that pyramid, of course, | 在金字塔的顶端 当然了 |
| [29:09] | are all these intangible things like, you know, | 是所有这些无形的东西 比如 你知道 |
| [29:11] | a sense of purpose in your life | 你活着的目的 |
| [29:12] | and fulfillment and so forth. | 成就感 等等 |
| [29:13] | What you’ll find among the most techno-optimistic people | 在技术乐观者中你会发现 |
| [29:17] | is that they will want to skip | 就是他们直接跳过 |
| [29:18] | right over the base of that pyramid | 金字塔的底部 |
| [29:20] | and jump right to the top and start talking about, | 然后跳到金字塔最顶端并开始讨论 |
| [29:22] | “Oh, gosh, how are we gonna,” you know, | 哦 天哪 我们怎么办 像这种 |
| [29:24] | “what’s the meaning of our life gonna be | 我们生活的意义是什么 |
| [29:26] | when we don’t have to work?” | 我们什么时候才不需要工作 |
| [29:27] | But the reality is that the base of that pyramid, | 但事实是 在金字塔的底部 |
| [29:30] | food, shelter, all the things that we need | 食物 住所 所有我们需要的东西 |
| [29:33] | to have, you know, a decent life, | 都在那里 你知道 一个体面的生活 |
| [29:34] | that’s the elephant in the room. | 那才是最重要的事情 |
| [29:36] | That stuff costs real money. | 那才是真正值得付出的事情 |
| [29:39] | That stuff is gonna involve | 也许那会涉及到 |
| [29:40] | perhaps raising taxes on a lot of the people | 对很多人增税 |
| [29:43] | that are doing really well right now, | 而且是那些现在做的很好的人 |
| [29:44] | and that’s probably part of the reason | 这可能是他们不愿意谈论 |
| [29:45] | that they prefer not to talk about it. | 这件事的原因之一 |
| [29:47] | So what do we do with the 99 percent | 那么我们能为这个星球上 |
| [29:50] | of the population on this planet | 百分之九十九的人做些什么呢 |
| [29:51] | if they don’t have jobs? | 如果他们没有工作 |
| [29:53] | The suggestion is and the goal is | 建议和目标 |
| [29:55] | to make this an efficient system. | 是使之成为一个有效的体系 |
| [29:57] | You put automation in the hands of everyone. | 每个人都拥有自动化带来的优惠 |
| [29:59] | In the near future, we’re going to see systems | 在不久的将来 我们将看到在体系中 |
| [30:01] | where we can 3D print our clothing, | 我们可以3D打印我们的衣服 |
| [30:04] | we can 3D print food. | 我们可以3D打印食物 |
| [30:05] | 福迪尼 3D食物打印机 | |
| [30:05] | If you automate these self-replicating | 如果你将这些自我复制的 |
| [30:08] | industrial machines to pull the raw materials | 工业机器自动化来提取原材料 |
| [30:11] | and distribute those raw materials | 并把原材料分发 |
| [30:12] | to everyone who has the capacity | 给所有有能力的人 |
| [30:15] | to 3D print their own house | 去3D打印他们的房子 |
| [30:17] | or 3D print their own farm bot, | 或者3D打印他们的农业机器 |
| [30:19] | you have literally solved the equation | 你需要正确的解决 |
| [30:23] | of how do I automate my life | 如何使我的生活自动化 |
| [30:26] | and how do I automate my basic necessities? | 和如何自动化我的生活必需品之间的平衡 |
| [30:28] | If we had the political will | 如果我们有政治意愿 |
| [30:30] | to take all these new technologies | 采用所有这些新技术 |
| [30:32] | and the wealth and abundance they create, | 及其创造的这些财富和富余 |
| [30:34] | and distribute these across our society | 并在第一世界国家乃至整个世界 |
| [30:37] | in the First World countries and also across the whole world, | 进行分配 |
| [30:40] | then, of course, I mean, the sky’s the limit. | 那当然是前途无量 |
| [30:42] | We can solve all kinds of problems. | 我们可以解决所有的问题 |
| [30:44] | But we will have to have the political will to do that, | 但我们必须具备政治意愿才能做到这一点 |
| [30:47] | and I don’t see a whole lot of evidence for it right now. | 不过目前我还没有看到足够多的依据 |
| [30:49] | There really is enough already for everybody, | 其实现有资源是完全足够的 |
| [30:50] | 威尔·赛尔夫 作家 | |
| [30:52] | certainly to have an adequate life, | 能够确保所有人都过上正常的 |
| [30:54] | if not a life of superabundant, | 但并不一定是极度富足的生活 |
| [30:58] | so, you know, I don’t think that the introduction | 所以 我不认为 |
| [31:01] | of more labor-saving devices | 引进更多节省劳力的设备 |
| [31:03] | or more is really gonna make any difference in that. | 会真的起到什么作用 |
| [31:06] | The reason there are poor people is ’cause there’s rich people. | 富人的存在才是造成穷人存在的原因 |
| [31:09] | 世界上最富有的85个人所拥有的财富跟 35亿最穷的人所拥有的财富数额相当 | |
| [31:15] | You’re simultaneously making a lot of people | 你创造了比以前多得多的财富和价值 |
| [31:17] | almost completely useless | 但同时 |
| [31:20] | while generating a lot more wealth and value than ever before. | 也让许多人变得无用 |
| [31:24] | 别担心机器人会夺走你的工作 你该担心的是背后的垄断者 | |
| [31:24] | So I worry about this. I worry about the schism | 所以我非常担心 |
| [31:27] | between the super rich and the poor. | 我担心这种贫富之间的巨大分裂 |
| [31:30] | The ultra rich, if they’re representative | 如果说那些超级富豪 |
| [31:33] | of some of the people we’ve seen in Silicon Valley, | 代表了我们在硅谷所见到的那些人 |
| [31:35] | I really, really worry | 我真的非常非常担忧 |
| [31:36] | because I wonder if they really have a soul. | 因为我怀疑他们是否真的有良知 |
| [31:38] | I really… I wonder if they really have an awareness | 我真的 我怀疑他们是否能够感知到 |
| [31:42] | of how regular people feel | 普通人的感受 |
| [31:44] | and if they share the values of humanity. | 我怀疑他们是否拥有人性的普世价值 |
| [31:46] | It really bothers me that you have this ultra rich | 一想到这些不知民间疾苦 |
| [31:49] | that is out of touch with regular people, with humanity. | 没有人性的超级富豪 我就感到忧虑 |
| [31:52] | This is being filmed right now in San Francisco, | 这是一段旧金山的现场录像 |
| [31:54] | which is by all accounts one of the wealthiest cities | 这无疑是世界上最富裕 |
| [31:57] | and most advanced cities in the world, | 最先进的城市之一 |
| [31:59] | and it’s pretty much ground zero | 旧金山可以说是 |
| [32:01] | for this technological revolution, | 这种技术革命的始发地 |
| [32:03] | and, yet, as I came here, | 然而 我来的路上 |
| [32:04] | I almost tripped over homeless people | 我差点被睡在马路边的 |
| [32:07] | sleeping on the sidewalk. | 流浪汉绊倒了 |
| [32:09] | That is the reality of today’s economy | 这就是如今的经济 |
| [32:11] | and today’s society. | 和如今的社会 |
| [32:13] | In a very real sense, | 真正意义上的真相 |
| [32:14] | we already live in the economy of abundance, | 我们已经生活在了富足的经济体系之中 |
| [32:17] | and yet we have not solved this problem. | 但是我们还没有解决这个问题 |
| [32:20] | I think the future for the four billion | 我认为世界上四十亿穷人的未来 |
| [32:22] | poor people in the world is actually a very good one. | 实际上是很不错的 |
| [32:25] | We’ve seen the amount of food in the world, for example, | 比如 世界上的粮食储量 |
| [32:27] | has more than doubled in the last 25 years. | 在过去的25年里翻了一倍还多 |
| [32:30] | That’s likely to continue. | 这种趋势很可能还会继续 |
| [32:32] | Worldwide, we’re seeing massive economic growth. | 世界范围内的经济都在大规模增长 |
| [32:36] | That really means that people in poor countries today | 这意味着如今贫困国家的人民 |
| [32:39] | will be much better off in the future, | 未来的日子会更好 |
| [32:41] | so there will still be some poor people, | 相对而言 |
| [32:43] | relatively speaking, | 那个时候还是会有穷人的存在 |
| [32:45] | but compared to today’s poor people, | 但是同今天的穷人相比 |
| [32:47] | they’ll be actually quite well-off. | 他们实际上是更加富裕的 |
| [32:48] | I think this is an amplifier for inequality. | 我认为这加剧了不平等现象 |
| [32:51] | It’s gonna make what we see now much more amplified. | 这会将我们现在所看见的情况加剧 |
| [32:55] | The number of people that are doing | 我认为 在经济体系中 |
| [32:56] | really well in the economy | 过得很好的人的数量 |
| [32:58] | I think is likely to continue to shrink. | 可能会持续下降 |
| [33:00] | Those people that are doing well will do extraordinarily well | 过得好的人以后也会过得及其好 |
| [33:01] | but for more and more people | 但是对更多的人来说 |
| [33:05] | they’re simply gonna find themselves | 他们会发现 |
| [33:07] | in a position where they don’t have a lot to offer. | 自己为社会提供不了什么 |
| [33:09] | They don’t have a marketable skill. | 他们没有受雇主青睐的技能 |
| [33:11] | They don’t have a viable way to really earn an income | 他们没有挣取收入的可行方式 |
| [33:14] | or, in particular, middle-class income. | 或者更确切地说是 是中产收入水平 |
| [33:16] | We should value the fact | 我们应该重视这样一个事实 |
| [33:17] | that we can spend more time doing human work | 我们可以花更多的时间在人类的工作上 |
| [33:19] | and the robots will get on, increase the economy. | 和机器人会继续促进经济 |
| [33:23] | They’ll be still taking all the resources | 他们还是会占用所有的资源 |
| [33:25] | and converting them into material goods at very low cost | 用非常低的成本将资源转变成物质商品 |
| [33:27] | so the economy will expand | 所以经济还是会增长 |
| [33:30] | we’ll be better off | 我们会更加富裕 |
| [33:31] | and we can concentrate on what matters. | 我们还可以专注于真正重要的事情 |
| [33:33] | There’s nothing to worry about in there. | 没有什么可担心的 |
| [33:35] | A constant stream of savings dollars | 每年都必须要有持续的储蓄美元 |
| [33:37] | must flow into big and small business each year. | 流入大小企业 |
| [33:41] | These dollars help to buy the land, | 这些美元能够用以购买土地 |
| [33:44] | the buildings, the tools and equipment, | 建筑 工具 和设备 |
| [33:48] | and create new job opportunities | 为不断扩张的人口 |
| [33:50] | for our expanding population. | 创造新的工作机会 |
| [33:55] | We need consumers out there. | 我们需要消费者 |
| [33:57] | We need people who can actually buy | 我们需要 |
| [34:00] | the things that are produced by the economy. | 有购买力的人 |
| [34:02] | If you look at the way our economy works, | 如果你观察一下我们的经济的运作方式 |
| [34:04] | ultimately, it’s driven by end consumption, | 从根本上来讲 经济是由终端消费驱动的 |
| [34:07] | and by that, I mean people and to a limited extent, governments | 也就是人 在有限的范围内也可以是政府 |
| [34:09] | who buy things because they want them | 他们购物是因为他们想要 |
| [34:11] | or they need them. | 或者需要这些东西 |
| [34:13] | You know, businesses in our economy, | 在我们的经济里 |
| [34:14] | they also buy things, of course, | 当然 企业当然也进行购物 |
| [34:16] | but they do that in order to produce something else, | 但是企业进行采购是为了生产 |
| [34:18] | and one business may sell to another business, | 一个企业可能将产品卖给另一个企业 |
| [34:20] | but at the end of that, at the end of that chain, | 但是在最后 在链条的末端 |
| [34:23] | there has to stand a consumer or perhaps a government | 必须要有一个消费者 或者是一个政府 |
| [34:26] | who buys that product or service | 来购买产品或服务 |
| [34:28] | just because they want it or they need it. | 只因为他们想要或者需要 |
| [34:30] | So this is not the case | 所以 并不是说 |
| [34:32] | that things can just keep going like this | 情况会就这么继续下去 |
| [34:33] | and get more and more unequal over time | 变得越来越不均等 |
| [34:36] | and everything will still be fine. | 一切都还会好起来 |
| [34:38] | I think that it won’t be fine. | 我觉得不会好的 |
| [34:39] | It will actually have an impact on our economy | 这实际上会给我们的经济 |
| [34:42] | and on our economic growth. | 和经济增长造成影响 |
| [34:44] | We need intelligent planning because, you know, | 我们需要智能规划 因为 |
| [34:48] | being unemployed is not a positive thing in itself. | 失业本身肯定不是一件好事 |
| [34:51] | There has to be some kind of transition point | 失业之后必须要有一个转换点 |
| [34:52] | to some other form of life after that. | 向另一种形式的生活过渡 |
| [34:54] | And again, at the moment, | 再次说明 如今 |
| [34:56] | I really don’t see enough attention being paid to this, | 我真的没看到我们给予这件事足够多的关注 |
| [34:58] | so we need to take this future prospect seriously now. | 我们现在应该严肃地对待这种未来设想 |
| [35:03] | If we manage to adapt to this expected wave | 如果我们要设法适应这种 |
| [35:06] | of technological unemployment both politically and socially, | 政治和社会层面上的技术失业浪潮 |
| [35:10] | it’s likely to facilitate a time | 这可能会催生一个时代 |
| [35:13] | when work takes on a different meaning | 在这个时代中 工作承载不一样的含义 |
| [35:15] | and a new role in our lives. | 并在我们的生活中扮演崭新的角色 |
| [35:19] | Ideas of how we should approach our relationship | 关于我们如何处理与工作的关系的想法 |
| [35:21] | with work have changed throughout history. | 在整个历史中都发生了变化 |
| [35:25] | In ancient Greece, Aristotle said, | 古希腊的亚里士多德曾说 |
| [35:27] | “A working paid job absorbs and degrades the mind”, | 一份有薪酬的工作会吞噬并削弱人的思想 |
| [35:32] | i.E., if a person would not willingly adopt | 也就是说 |
| [35:35] | their job for free, | 如果一个人不愿意无偿做这份工作的话 |
| [35:37] | the argument can be made that they have become | 那么就可以做出这样的结论 |
| [35:39] | absorbed and degraded by it, | 他们已经被这份工作吞噬和削弱了 |
| [35:41] | working purely out of financial obligation. | 只是为了承担财务上的责任去做这份工作 |
| [35:45] | In 1844, Karl Marx famously described | 1844年 卡尔·马克思这样描述 |
| [35:48] | the workers of society as “alienated from their work | 社会中的工人 他说 他们同工作疏远 |
| [35:52] | and wholly saturated by it.” | 又被工作完全渗透 |
| [35:56] | He felt that most work didn’t allow | 他感觉大部分工作 |
| [35:58] | an individual’s character to grow. | 没有给个体发展个性的空间 |
| [36:00] | He encouraged people to find fulfillment | 他鼓励人们去发现工作中的 |
| [36:02] | and freedom in their work. | 满足感和自由感 |
| [36:05] | During World War Two, the ethos towards work | 二战期间的道德价值观 |
| [36:08] | was that it was a patriotic duty | 把工作看成是爱国者的责任 |
| [36:10] | in order to support the war effort. | 以工作来支持国家在战争中的付出 |
| [36:13] | To best understand our current relationship with work | 为了更好的理解我们和工作之间的关系 |
| [36:17] | and perhaps by extension modern life itself, | 或由此引申开来 去理解现代生活本身 |
| [36:20] | we can look to the writings of a man called Guy Debord. | 我们可以看看居伊·德波的作品 |
| [36:24] | Debord was a French Marxist theorist and in 1967, | 德波是一名法国马克思主义理论家 |
| [36:29] | he published a powerful and influential critique | 1967年他出版了一本颇具影响力的 |
| [36:32] | on Western society entitled | 有关西方社会的批评文集 |
| [36:35] | The Society of the Spectacle. | 该书名为《景观社会》 |
| [36:39] | He describes our workers are ruled by commodities | 他描述道 工人被商品所统治 |
| [36:42] | and that production is an inescapable duty of the masses | 生产是人民群众不可避免的责任 |
| [36:46] | such is the economic system | 这就是经济制度 |
| [36:48] | that to work is to survive. | 工作就是生存 |
| [36:51] | “The capitalist economy,” he says, | 他说 资本主义经济 |
| [36:54] | “requires the vast majority | 要求绝大多数人在这场 |
| [36:55] | to take part as wage workers | 对终点的无止境的追求中 |
| [36:57] | in the unending pursuit of its ends. | 扮演拿薪水的工人的角色 |
| [37:01] | A requirement to which, as everyone knows, | 每个人都知道 要满足这种要求 |
| [37:03] | one must either submit or die.” | 要么屈服 要么死亡 |
| [37:06] | The assumption has crept into our rhetoric | 这种设想逐渐影响了我们的言辞和思想 |
| [37:09] | and our understanding that we live in | 让我们认为自己生活在一个 |
| [37:10] | a leisure society to some extent. | 从某种程度上来说 比较悠闲的社会 |
| [37:12] | We have flexible working time. | 我们有灵活的工作时间 |
| [37:15] | You hear the term a lot “relative poverty” | 你能经常听见一个术语 相对贫困 |
| [37:18] | it’s, again, it’s absolute poverty, | 这实际上就是绝对的贫困 |
| [37:19] | and all these kinds of ideas suggest that, in fact, | 这一切都意味着 |
| [37:22] | we should feel pretty pleased with ourselves. | 我们应该对自己感到很满意 |
| [37:24] | We should both feel quite leisured | 我们应该感到很悠闲 |
| [37:26] | and we should feel less in bondage to work | 感到不那么被工作束缚了 |
| [37:29] | than perhaps somebody in the 19th century | 不像19世纪工厂里的某个工人那样 |
| [37:31] | who was kind of shackled to a machine in a factory. | 几乎被机器给桎梏住了 |
| [37:34] | But, in fact, we’re very unhappy. | 但是 实际上呢 我们非常不快乐 |
| [37:37] | It’s irrelevant how much you work | 这和你工作了多长时间 |
| [37:39] | in actual terms anymore. | 是无关的 |
| [37:41] | The way in which the spectacle operates | 景观运作的方式 |
| [37:43] | is to make of leisure itself an adjunct to work. | 是将休闲变成工作的附属品 |
| [37:47] | In other words, the idea of not working and working | 换句话说 在某种意义上 |
| [37:50] | are in some sense locked into an unholy | 不工作或者工作的概念被框进了一种 |
| [37:53] | and reciprocal relationship with each other. | 危险的 互惠的关系之中 |
| [37:56] | You know, the fact that you’re not working | 其实 如果你现在不用工作 |
| [37:58] | is only because you’ve been working, | 那只是因为你已经工作过了 |
| [38:00] | and the fact that you’re working | 如果你现在工作 |
| [38:01] | is only so that you cannot work. | 也只是为了以后可以不工作 |
| [38:03] | In other words, so engrafted is that rubric | 也就是说 这种思想灌输进我们的头脑 |
| [38:06] | in the way that we approach life | 深刻影响了我们对待生活的方式 |
| [38:08] | that… that we can never be rid of it. | 我们永远都无法将其摆脱 |
| [38:10] | Debord also observed that as technology advances, | 德波还观察到 随着技术的发展 |
| [38:14] | production becomes more efficient. | 生产变得更加高效 |
| [38:16] | Accordingly, the workers’ tasks invariably become | 相应的 工人的任务也变得 |
| [38:19] | more trivial and menial. | 更加琐碎 枯燥 |
| [38:22] | It would seem that as human labor becomes irrelevant, | 随着人力工作变得无关紧要 |
| [38:25] | the harder it is to find fulfilling work. | 找到一个有意义的工作也就更加困难 |
| [38:29] | The truth of the matter is that most people already, | 实际情况是 在英国 |
| [38:32] | in Britain, are doing useless jobs | 大部分人已经在做无用的工作了 |
| [38:35] | and have been for generations, actually. | 这种情况其实已经持续了好几代人了 |
| [38:38] | Most jobs in management are completely useless. | 管理部门的大部分工作都是无用的 |
| [38:41] | They basically consist in the rearrangement | 基本上就是把信息 |
| [38:43] | of information into different patterns | 重新整理为不同的模式 |
| [38:45] | that are meant to take on the semblance of meaning | 然后在官僚主义的语境中 |
| [38:47] | in the bureaucratic context. | 塑造一种有意义的假象 |
| [38:49] | So most work is, in fact, a waste of time already, | 所以大部分工作其实就是在浪费时间 |
| [38:53] | and I think people understand that intuitively. | 我觉得人们能够从直觉上理解这一点 |
| [38:56] | When I go into companies, I often ask the question, | 我去公司的时候 我常常问他们 |
| [38:59] | “Why are you employing people? | 为什么你们要雇人 |
| [39:00] | You could get monkeys | 你完全可以用猴子 |
| [39:01] | or you could get robots to do this job.” | 或者可以用机器人来做这个工作 |
| [39:04] | The people are not allowed to think. | 这些人不被允许思考 |
| [39:05] | They are processing. | 他们在加工处理 |
| [39:07] | They’re just like a machine. | 他们就像机器一样 |
| [39:09] | They’re being so hemmed down, | 被框死了 |
| [39:12] | they operate with an algorithm and they just do it. | 他们就像按照写好的计算机程序运作一样 |
| [39:16] | We all have the need to find meaning in our lives, | 我们都有寻找生命意义的需求 |
| [39:19] | and it is our professions that define us. | 是职业定义了我们 |
| [39:23] | To work is to provide a service | 工作就是提供一种服务 |
| [39:25] | either to yourself or for others, | 不管是为自己还是为他人 |
| [39:27] | but most of us would like our work to be purposeful | 我们几乎都想做有意义的 |
| [39:30] | and contributory to society in some way. | 促进社会发展的工作 |
| [39:33] | It is an uncomfortable truth | 但是令人不安的真相是 |
| [39:35] | that with our present model of economics | 在我们现有的经济模式下 |
| [39:38] | not everyone is able to monetize their passions. | 不是每个人都可以用自己的爱好来赚钱 |
| [39:42] | If any of this were to come to fruition, | 如果这些都能成为现实 |
| [39:45] | if we learned to make automation work for us, | 如果我们能够让自动化为我们服务 |
| [39:48] | the question remains, “What do we do with our days?” | 我们的问题将会是 我们每天做什么呢 |
| [39:53] | There’s a good and a bad. | 有好处也有坏处 |
| [39:55] | The good is that the cost of everything drops. | 好处是一切事物的成本都会下降 |
| [39:57] | We can solve some of the basic problems of humanity | 我们能够解决一些人类最基本的问题 |
| [40:00] | like disease, hunger, lodging. | 比如疾病 饥饿 住宿 |
| [40:04] | We can look after all the basic needs of human beings. | 我们能够照顾到所有的人类基本需求 |
| [40:08] | The dark side is that automation takes jobs away, | 坏处是自动化夺走了工作 |
| [40:12] | and the question is, “What do we do for a living?” | 那么问题就来了 我们靠什么生存呢 |
| [40:15] | Some of us will seek enlightenment | 一部分人会去尝试理解和适应 |
| [40:18] | and rise and will keep learning and growing, | 他们会成功 会不断学习和成长 |
| [40:20] | but the majority of people don’t care about those things. | 但是大部分人不在乎这些 |
| [40:22] | Majority of people just want to do, you know, grunt work. | 大部分人只是想做 呃 不费脑子的活儿 |
| [40:25] | They want to socialize with people as they do at work. | 他们想和人打交道 像他们现在的工作那样 |
| [40:29] | Sennett wrote in his book, The Corrosion of Character, | 桑内特在他的书《品性的腐蚀》中提到 |
| [40:32] | that in late capitalism, | 在资本主义晚期 |
| [40:35] | one of the great kind of supports | 这是对人类的巨大帮助之一 |
| [40:38] | for human interaction and for human meaning | 对人际互动和对人类意义的帮助 |
| [40:42] | is the longevity of social relations | 它象征着社会关系的寿命 |
| [40:44] | 乔安娜·库克博士 人类学家 伦敦大学学院 | |
| [40:44] | and the interactions in working environments | 和与工作环境的相动 |
| [40:47] | and that if that’s taken away, | 如果没有交流 |
| [40:49] | if what’s required is to be continually responsive | 如果被要求的是不断地 |
| [40:52] | and changing in a precarious world, | 在这个不确定世界中进行回应和改变 |
| [40:57] | then people no longer find the fulfillment | 人们就无法再找到成就感 |
| [41:00] | or the substance in what they’re doing. | 或他们所做事情的主旨 |
| [41:02] | There is an underlying desire for people to do things, | 这是人们一种潜在的欲望去做事情 |
| [41:06] | you know, you spoke about the idea | 你所讲的观点 |
| [41:07] | that people want to be engaged creatively. | 就是人们想要创造性地参与 |
| [41:10] | They want to be engaged, you know, | 他们想要参与 |
| [41:11] | go back to basic Marxist ideas of praxis | 回归到基本的马克思主义的实践观念 |
| [41:14] | and right back to John Locke. | 正好是到约翰·洛克的时期 |
| [41:16] | They want to be engaged in what Locke thought of | 他们想要参与到洛克认为的 |
| [41:18] | as primary acquisition, | 基本习得 |
| [41:19] | mixing their labor, either their creative thinking | 加上他们的劳动 无论是脑力创造 |
| [41:22] | or their physical labor even, | 还是体力劳动 |
| [41:24] | with the world in order to transform it. | 甚至为了改变这个世界 |
| [41:26] | They want to do that, and that’s a very basic | 他们想要这么做 这是一个非常基本的 |
| [41:28] | human instinct to do that. | 人类本能的动机 |
| [41:30] | And the idea of a leisured class, as it were, | 而休闲阶层的观点 和之前一样 |
| [41:34] | a class who is not involved in a praxis with the world, | 这不是一个注重实践的阶层 |
| [41:38] | but is simply involved in a passive way | 但只是简单地用一种消极的方式 |
| [41:40] | as a recipient of things is actually repugnant to people. | 作为接受者 这确实不得人心 |
| [41:43] | They would sooner work for the man in a meaningless job | 他们宁愿为人类做无意义的工作 |
| [41:48] | and construct a false ideology | 然后造成一种错误的 |
| [41:50] | of involvement and engagement | 参与感和融入感的思想意识 |
| [41:53] | than they would actually sit on their arse. | 也不愿坐着无所事事 |
| [41:54] | We can’t get away from the fact that… | 我们无法排除一个事实就是 |
| [41:56] | that people work because they have to. | 人们是迫不得已工作的 |
| [41:59] | That’s, you know, the primary motivation for most people, | 这对大多数人来说是主要的动机 |
| [42:02] | that if you don’t work, | 如果你不工作 |
| [42:03] | you’re gonna be living on the street, okay? | 你就要去睡大街了 对吧 |
| [42:06] | Once we… if we ever move into a future | 如果在未来 |
| [42:08] | where that’s not the case | 没有这些事情 |
| [42:09] | and people don’t have to worry about that, | 人们也不必去担心这些 |
| [42:11] | then we can begin to take on | 我们就可以开始思索 |
| [42:12] | these more philosophical questions | 更多的哲学问题 |
| [42:14] | of… of, you know, but we’re not at that point yet. | 但我们现在还没到那个时间点 |
| [42:18] | We can’t pretend that we are living in an age | 我们不能假装我们生活在那样的时代 |
| [42:22] | where that necessity for an income doesn’t exist. | 一个收入不是作为必需品存在的时代 |
| [42:27] | Douglas Rushkoff stated in 2009, | 道格拉斯·斯高夫在2009年说到 |
| [42:31] | “We all want paychecks or at least money. | 我们都想要薪水支票 或者至少是金钱 |
| [42:34] | We want food, shelter, clothing, | 我们要食物 住所 衣物 |
| [42:37] | and all the things that money buys us. | 和所有钱能买到的东西 |
| [42:40] | But do we all really want jobs?” | 但我们真的需要工作吗 |
| [42:42] | According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, | 根据联合国粮农组织 |
| [42:47] | there is enough food produced | 全球已生产了足够的食物 |
| [42:49] | to provide everyone in the world | 供给世界上的每一个人 |
| [42:50] | with 2,720 kilocalories per person per day. | 每天2720大卡的热量 |
| [43:13] | At this stage, it’s difficult to think of | 在这个阶段 很难去考虑 |
| [43:16] | other possible ways of life. | 其他可能的生活方式 |
| [43:18] | The need to earn a living has been a part | 谋生成为 |
| [43:20] | of every cultural narrative in history. | 历史上每一段文化叙事的一部分 |
| [43:22] | It’s a precondition of human life. | 这是人类生活的前提条件 |
| [43:26] | The challenge facing the future of work | 面对工作的未来发展 |
| [43:28] | is politically unclear. | 在政治上是模糊的 |
| [43:31] | It is likely to require | 它很有可能要求 |
| [43:33] | not only a redistribution of wealth, | 不仅在财富上再分配 |
| [43:35] | but a redistribution of the workload. | 还要在工作量上再分配 |
| [43:39] | But will working less mean living more? | 但是工作更少就意味着生活更多吗 |
| [43:44] | And is our fear of becoming irrelevant | 我们害怕变得无关紧要 |
| [43:47] | greater than our fear of death? | 就会大于对死亡的恐惧吗 |
| [43:48] | 第二部分 通过衰老逝去你的时间 死亡 | |
| [43:57] | 100年前 世界平均期望寿命约为31岁 如今达到了71岁 | |
| [44:24] | The process of physical aging is known as senescence, | 身体老化的过程被称作是衰老 |
| [44:28] | and none of us are spared from it. | 没有人能够避免 |
| [44:30] | It remains to this day an evolutionary enigma. | 直到今天 它还是进化中的一个谜题 |
| [44:34] | Our cells are programmed to wane | 我们的细胞按其规律衰弱 |
| [44:37] | and our entire bodies are fated to become frail. | 我们的整个身体也最终走向脆弱 |
| [44:40] | It was seen that the laws of nature would prefer it | 这看起来自然规律更希望 |
| [44:43] | if we dwindle and die. | 我们人类逐渐减少然后死亡 |
| [44:48] | Negligible senescence, however, | 然而 极微小的衰老 |
| [44:50] | is the lack of symptoms of aging. | 是衰老症状的缺乏 |
| [44:53] | Negligibly senescent organisms include certain species | 极微小衰老的生物包括 |
| [44:58] | of sturgeon, giant tortoise, | 鲟鱼 巨型陆龟 |
| [45:00] | flatworm, clam, and tardigrade. | 扁形虫 蛤和缓步类动物 |
| [45:05] | One species of jellyfish called Turritopsis dohrnii | 有一种水母叫灯塔水母 |
| [45:09] | has even been observed to be biologically immortal. | 被观察到在生物学上是长生的 |
| [45:13] | It has the capability to reverse its biotic cycle | 它有生物逆循环的能力 |
| [45:16] | and revert back to the polyp stage | 在它的任何发展阶段 |
| [45:19] | at any point in its development. | 使自身回到息肉阶段 |
| [45:21] | There is only one thing wrong with dying, | 在走向死亡的过程中只有一点不对 |
| [45:24] | 约翰·哈里斯教授 生物伦理学家 | |
| [45:24] | and that’s doing it when you don’t want to. | 那就是 在你不想要的时候去做 |
| [45:26] | Doing it when you do want to is not a problem. | 当你想要的时候去做就不是问题 |
| [45:29] | Now if you put that bargain to anybody, | 现在 如果你跟任何人讨价还价 |
| [45:30] | “Look, this is the deal: | 看 就是这样 |
| [45:32] | You will die, but only when you want to.” | 你会死 但只有在你想死的时候 |
| [45:35] | Who would not take that bargain? | 谁不想要这样的交易 |
| [45:36] | In 2014, a team of scientists at Harvard | 在2014年 哈佛的一队科学家 |
| [45:40] | were able to effectively reverse the age | 能够有效地将一只较老的老鼠 |
| [45:43] | of an older mouse by treating it | 的生理年龄倒回 |
| [45:45] | with the blood of a younger mouse | 用年轻老鼠的血液 |
| [45:47] | through a process called parabiosis. | 通过异种共生的方式 |
| [45:51] | For the first time in history | 这是历史上第一次 |
| [45:52] | it is deemed scientifically possible | 被认为是科学的且可能的方式 |
| [45:54] | 森斯研究基金会 衰老新概念 | |
| [45:54] | SENS (Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence) Research Foundation | 衰老忽略工程策略研究基金会 |
| [45:55] | to gain control over the aging process. | 控制衰老 |
| [46:06] | Ultimately, when people get the hang of the idea | 最后 当人们了解到 |
| [46:07] | 奥布里·德·格雷 古生物学家 | |
| [46:08] | that aging is a medical problem | 衰老是个医学问题 |
| [46:10] | and that everybody’s got it, | 每个人都会变老 |
| [46:12] | then it’s not going to be the way it is today. | 这项技术就不会走到今天 |
| [46:21] | He thinks it’s possible that people will extend… | 他认为这是有可能的 |
| [46:22] | 约翰·哈里斯教授 生物伦理学家 | |
| [46:25] | be able to extend their lifespan by considerable amounts. | 通过大数据人们可以延长寿命 |
| [46:28] | I think he’s on record as saying | 我觉得他公开表明过 |
| [46:30] | the first 1,000-year-old person is already alive. | 第一个1000岁的人还活着 |
| [46:33] | It’s highly likely, in my view, | 在我看来 这很有可能 |
| [46:33] | 奥布里·德·格雷 古生物学家 | |
| [46:35] | that people born today or born 10 years ago | 今天出生的 或者10年前出生的人 |
| [46:38] | will actually be able to live | 确实能够活到 |
| [46:40] | as long as they like, so to speak, | 他想活多久就活多久 可以说 |
| [46:42] | without any risk of death from the ill health of old age. | 只要在没有老年疾病对死亡的威胁 |
| [46:47] | The way to apply comprehensive maintenance to aging | 运用全面的抗老修护方式 |
| [46:52] | is a divide and conquer approach. | 是一个知道解决事情的先后顺序 |
| [46:54] | It is not a magic bullet. | 它不是灵丹妙药 |
| [46:56] | It is not some single thing that we can do, | 也不是我们能做的唯一的事情 |
| [46:58] | let alone a single thing that we could do just once. | 更不要说是我们现在唯一能做的 |
| [47:00] | Aging is the lifelong accumulation | 衰老是终生的 |
| [47:04] | of damage to the body, | 对身体伤害的日积月累 |
| [47:05] | and that damage occurs as an intrinsic, | 以及本身存在的伤害 |
| [47:08] | unavoidable side effect | 不可避免的副作用 |
| [47:11] | of the way the body normally works. | 由身体正常机能运作带来的 |
| [47:13] | Even though there are many, many, | 尽管有很多很多 |
| [47:15] | many different types of damage at the molecular level | 在分子层次上有不同的伤害方式 |
| [47:17] | and the cellular level, they can all be classified | 和在细胞层次上 他们全部可以被分为 |
| [47:20] | into a very manageable number of categories, | 可控范围的类别 |
| [47:23] | just seven major categories. | 七种主要的类别 |
| [47:25] | So now the bottom line, what do we do about it? | 所以现在的底线 我们该怎么做 |
| [47:28] | How do we actually implement the maintenance approach? | 我们该如何实行修护方法 |
| [47:30] | There are four fundamental paradigms, | 这里有四个基本范例 |
| [47:33] | they all begin with “R.” | 他们的首字母都是R |
| [47:34] | They are called replacement, removal, | 有替换 移动 |
| [47:36] | repair, and reinforcement. | 修护和加固 |
| [47:37] | We’ve got particular ways to do all these things. | 我们有具体的方法来做这些 |
| [47:40] | Sometimes replacement, sometimes simply elimination | 有时候用替换 有时候只是简单地消除 |
| [47:43] | of the superfluous material, the garbage that’s accumulated. | 多余的物质 堆积的垃圾 |
| [47:46] | Sometimes repair of the material. | 有时候修护物质 |
| [47:50] | Occasionally, in a couple of cases, reinforcement… | 偶尔 在一些情况下 用加固 |
| [47:53] | that means making the cell robust | 意味着使细胞变得强壮 |
| [47:55] | so that the damage, which would normally have caused | 因此正常导致病状的伤害 |
| [47:58] | the pathology no longer does that. | 就不会再出现了 |
| [48:00] | I wanna talk about one thing that we’re doing in our lab, | 我想要谈谈我们正在实验室里做的一件事 |
| [48:02] | which involved the number one cause of death | 包含了头号死亡原因 |
| [48:05] | in the western world, cardiovascular disease | 在西方世界 心血管疾病 |
| [48:07] | causes heart attacks and strokes. | 造成的心脏病发作 |
| [48:09] | It all begins with these things called foam cells, | 它的起因是泡沫细胞 |
| [48:11] | which are originally white blood cells. | 它本身是白血细胞 |
| [48:14] | They become poisoned by toxins in the bloodstream. | 他们被体内循环血液的毒素所侵害 |
| [48:17] | The main toxin that’s responsible is known… | 主要的毒素是 |
| [48:21] | it’s called 7-ketocholesterol, that’s this thing, | 7-酮胆固醇 就是这个东西 |
| [48:23] | and we found some bacteria that could eat it. | 然后我们发现一些细菌会把它吃掉 |
| [48:26] | We then found out how they eat it, | 我们又发现了这些细菌是怎么把它吃掉的 |
| [48:29] | we found out the enzymes that they use to break it down, | 我们发现他们用酶分解 |
| [48:31] | and we found out how to modify those enzymes | 还发现了如何改造这些酶 |
| [48:33] | 7-酮胆固醇 的培养生长 | |
| [48:33] | 碳13标记的 7-酮胆固醇 的培养生长 | |
| [48:33] | so that they can go into human cells, | 由此他们可以进入到人体的细胞 |
| [48:36] | go to the right place in the cell that they’re needed, | 进入到细胞中他们被需要且正确的位置 |
| [48:39] | which is called the lysosome, | 这被叫做溶酶体 |
| [48:40] | and actually do their job there, and it actually works. | 在那做他们的工作 也确实起到了作用 |
| [48:45] | Cells are protected from this toxic substance… | 细胞被这些有毒物质保护 |
| [48:48] | that’s what these graphs are showing. | 就是这个图表所展示的 |
| [48:49] | So this is pretty good news. | 所以 这是个非常好的消息 |
| [48:51] | The damage that accumulates that eventually causes | 累积的损伤最终会导致 |
| [48:54] | the diseases and disabilities of old age | 老龄的疾病和残疾 |
| [48:57] | is initially harmless. | 在最初是无害的 |
| [48:59] | The body is set up to tolerate a certain amount of it. | 身体可以容忍一定数量的损伤 |
| [49:02] | That’s critical, because while we damage it | 这很关键 因为当我们伤害它 |
| [49:05] | at that sub-pathological level, | 到亚病理水平 |
| [49:07] | it means that it’s not participating | 这就意味着 身体无法 |
| [49:10] | in metabolism, so to speak. | 新陈代谢 可以这么说 |
| [49:12] | It’s not actually interacting with the way the body works. | 这不会与身体本身的机能运行相互作用 |
| [49:15] | So medicines that target that damage | 因此 针对损伤的药物 |
| [49:17] | are much, much less likely | 相对来说极少极少可能 |
| [49:20] | to have unacceptable side effects | 有不可接受的副作用 |
| [49:22] | than medicines that try to manipulate the body | 比针对全身的药物 |
| [49:26] | so as to stop the damage from being created | 所以 要减少损伤的产生 |
| [49:27] | in the first place. | 在最开始的时候 |
| [49:28] | 在老年医学领域 对奥布里提出的寿命观点 存在不同的声音 | |
| [49:35] | It’s unlikely, in fact, by working on longevity per se, | 事实上 不可能通过寿命本身 |
| [49:41] | that we will crack it. | 来达成延长寿命 |
| [49:44] | It’s going to be… it seems to me more probable | 于我来说 更有可能 |
| [49:46] | that we will crack longevity simply by getting rid of, | 会简单地通过消除 |
| [49:50] | sequentially, the prime causes of death. | 循序渐进地消除主要致命因子 |
| [49:54] | I hear people talk about living hundreds of years. | 我听人们谈论数百年的生活 |
| [49:54] | 鲁道夫·坦齐教授 神经系统科学家 哈佛大学 | |
| [49:59] | Inside, I’m like, yeah, right, | 我也是其中之一 是的 |
| [50:00] | I mean, because if you study the brain, | 我的意识是 因为如果你研究了大脑 |
| [50:03] | the dead end is the brain. | 研究的僵局就是大脑 |
| [50:04] | We all start developing | 我们都开始发展 |
| [50:07] | Alzheimer’s pathology at 40 years old. | 40岁人的阿尔茨海默病症 |
| [50:09] | It’s not a matter of whether you get Alzheimer’s, | 是否得阿尔茨海默病并不重要 |
| [50:11] | it’s when. | 重要的是什么时候得的 |
| [50:12] | It’s when, and genetically, | 重要的是什么时候 从基因方面 |
| [50:15] | we all have some predisposition | 我们都或多或少有一些易患病倾向 |
| [50:20] | to when we’re gonna get this disease. | 在什么时候真正患上了这个病 |
| [50:22] | It’s part of the program. | 这是人体机制的一部分 |
| [50:23] | Let’s fix that part of the program | 我们就解决这一部分 |
| [50:25] | so we can live past 90 years old | 因此我们就可以活到90岁以上 |
| [50:28] | with an intact, working brain | 还有完好无损的 仍旧可以工作的大脑 |
| [50:30] | to continue the evolution of our mind. | 来继续进行思想的进化 |
| [50:33] | That is number one in my book, because here’s a fact: | 这是我书里的第一点 因为这是事实 |
| [50:39] | Life span’s almost 80 right now on average. | 现在的平均寿命接近80岁 |
| [50:41] | By 85, half of people will have Alzheimer’s. | 85岁人群 一半患有阿尔茨海默病 |
| [50:44] | Do the math. | 做下数学题 |
| [50:46] | Seventy-four million Baby Boomers | 七千四百万的婴儿 |
| [50:48] | headed toward risk age. | 将会有这个风险 |
| [50:49] | Eighty-five, 50 percent have Alzheimer’s, | 85岁人群 一半患有阿尔茨海默病 |
| [50:52] | current life span’s 80. | 目前平均寿命80岁 |
| [50:53] | They’re gonna be 85 pretty soon. | 马上就会达到85岁 |
| [50:55] | Half our population at 85’s gonna have this disease. | 一半人口在85岁会患上这个病 |
| [50:58] | And then keep going up to 90 and 100, | 然后会继续攀升到90岁甚至100岁 |
| [51:00] | and it gets even worse. | 状况会越来越糟 |
| [51:01] | This is enemy number one. | 这是我们的首要敌人 |
| [51:02] | It’s interesting, just this week | 这很有趣 就在这一周 |
| [51:06] | it was discovered that an Egyptian mummy | 埃及木乃伊被发现 |
| [51:06] | 彼得 科克兰 未来学家 企业家 | |
| [51:10] | had died of cancer, so even way back in those times, | 死于癌症 因此在那个时候 |
| [51:14] | cancer was around. | 癌症是普遍的 |
| [51:15] | What seems to have happened is, as we have lived longer, | 看来似乎会发生的是 当我们活得越久 |
| [51:17] | the number of diseases that pop up to kill us | 疾病会突然出现将我们杀死 |
| [51:21] | starts to increase, and the reality is | 数量开始增加 事实是 |
| [51:23] | I think this is a sort of whack-a-mole situation | 我认为这是一种打地鼠的情况 |
| [51:26] | as we beat cancer to death and it disappears, | 当我们打败了癌症 它消失了 |
| [51:30] | something else will pop up. | 其他东西又会突然出现 |
| [51:31] | Cancer is a specific disease, | 癌症是个具体的疾病 |
| [51:33] | 鲁道夫·坦齐教授 神经系统科学家 哈佛大学 | |
| [51:33] | and every cancer is a specific gene involved | 每一种癌症都有其相应的基因 |
| [51:35] | together with lifestyle. | 影响其生活方式 |
| [51:36] | Alzheimer’s, specific disease, specific genetics. | 阿尔茨海默症 具体的疾病 具体的基因 |
| [51:39] | I can go on and on… diabetes, heart disease. | 我可以列举很多 糖尿病 心脏病 |
| [51:42] | These are diseases, and as you get older, | 这些疾病 当你老了 |
| [51:47] | your susceptibility to these diseases increases, | 你对这些疾病的敏感性会增强 |
| [51:50] | and your genetics will determine | 你的基因决定了 |
| [51:52] | whether you get them and when you get them | 你是否会患病以及什么时候患病 |
| [51:55] | given your lifespan. | 影响你的寿命 |
| [51:56] | That’s not aging, | 这不是衰老 |
| [51:58] | that’s just living long enough to be susceptible, | 只是活得足够长而变得敏感 |
| [52:00] | so we may very well eradicate, in our fantasy world, | 所以 在我们幻想的世界中很容易消灭 |
| [52:04] | all the cancers and strokes and heart disease | 所有现在患有的癌症 中风 心脏病 |
| [52:07] | and diabetes and Alzheimer’s we get right now | 糖尿病以及老年痴呆症 |
| [52:10] | by 80 or 90 years old, and then what’s gonna happen? | 到了80岁90岁会发生什么 |
| [52:13] | You live out to 110, and guess what’s gonna happen, | 那当你活到110岁 会发生什么呢 |
| [52:16] | new, other genetic variants | 其他新的基因变异 |
| [52:18] | suddenly rear their ugly heads and say, | 突然扬起他们丑恶的头 说道 |
| [52:20] | “Now we’re gonna affect whether you live to 110 | 现在我们即将影响你能否活到110岁 |
| [52:23] | without Alzheimer’s and heart disease | 即使你没有患上老年痴呆症 心脏病 |
| [52:25] | and cancer and diabetes.” | 癌症或者糖尿病 |
| [52:26] | And it’ll go on and go on and go on. | 事情就是一直这么发生着 |
| [52:29] | There will undoubtedly be enormous challenges | 毫无疑问 对于长寿的生物学途径 |
| [52:32] | concerning the biological approach to longevity. | 将会出现巨大的挑战 |
| [52:36] | There could, however, be an alternative route | 但是存在另外一种 |
| [52:39] | to extreme longevity. | 获得永生的方式 |
| [52:42] | When people are worried about death, | 当人们为死亡忧虑 |
| [52:44] | I guess the issue is what is it | 我猜想问题是 有什么方法 |
| [52:45] | that they would like to have stay alive, okay? | 可以让他们保持存活 明白吗 |
| [52:49] | And I think that’s often very unclear what the answer is, | 我认为答案经常很不明确 |
| [52:52] | because if you look at somebody like Ray Kurzweil, for example, | 举个例子 你看雷·库兹韦尔 |
| [52:53] | 史蒂夫·富勒教授 社会学家 华威大学 | |
| [52:55] | with his promises of the singularity | 他的理论是关于奇点 |
| [52:57] | and our merging with machine intelligence | 以及人类与机器智能的结合 |
| [52:59] | and then being able to kind of have | 然后可以做到的是 |
| [53:01] | this kind of infinite consciousness | 把这种无限的意识 |
| [53:02] | projected outward into the Cosmos. | 安全保存在宇宙之外 |
| [53:04] | I don’t think he’s imaging a human body | 我不认为他在想象一具永生的人体 |
| [53:07] | living forever, okay? | 明白吗 |
| [53:09] | And if that’s what we’re talking about is immortality, | 如果这就是我们说的永生 |
| [53:13] | what I kind of think Kurzweil is talking about, | 这就是我认为库兹韦尔在探讨的 |
| [53:15] | then I can see it. | 那我可以理解 |
| [53:16] | I mean, I could see at least as something to work toward. | 我能看到至少事情在向前进步 |
| [53:20] | In 2005, Google’s Director of Engineering, | 2005年 谷歌的技术总监 |
| [53:24] | Ray Kurzweil, published a book | 雷·库兹韦尔出版了一本书 |
| [53:26] | entitled The Singularity is Near: | 书名叫作 |
| [53:29] | When Humans Transcend Biology. | 《奇点临近》 |
| [53:32] | He predicts that by 2045, | 他预言 到2045年 |
| [53:36] | it’ll be possible to upload our minds | 可以实现将我们的思维 |
| [53:38] | into a computer, effectively allowing us | 上传至计算机 从而让人类 |
| [53:41] | to live indefinitely. | 可以永远存活 |
| [53:43] | 人类大脑在不断运作 没有什么可以阻止这些生物过程 被倒序运作以及被复制到非生物实体中 | |
| [53:57] | When people think of death at this point, | 此刻当人类想到死亡 |
| [54:00] | they think of a body going into a coffin, | 他们想到的是把一具尸体放入棺材 |
| [54:02] | and the coffin going into the ground. | 然后把棺材埋进地里 |
| [54:04] | When in fact that age of death is dying. | 事实上 死亡的时代正在过去 |
| [54:05] | 格雷 斯科特 未来学家 技术哲学家 | |
| [54:08] | We are ending that stage. | 我们正在结束这个阶段 |
| [54:11] | We’re entering a new stage | 即将进入新的阶段 |
| [54:12] | where we could possibly upload consciousness | 我们可以把意识 |
| [54:15] | into a silicone substrate. | 上传至一个电路板中 |
| [54:16] | You know, a lot of these science fiction ideas | 几十年以前的科学假想 |
| [54:18] | from decades ago are becoming real | 都在慢慢成为现实 |
| [54:19] | 伊恩 皮尔森 未来学家 | |
| [54:21] | and already people are spending millions of pounds | 人们已经花费了数百万英镑 |
| [54:24] | research today on making this happen. | 用于研究如何将其变成现实 |
| [54:26] | Nobody expects to do it before 2040 at the earliest. | 没人觉得能到2040年前成功 |
| [54:29] | My guess is 2050, it’ll be a few rich people | 我的猜想是2050年 会有一些富人 |
| [54:32] | and a few kings and queens here and there and politicians. | 一些国王和王后以及政治家们能够实现 |
| [54:35] | By 2060-2070, it’s reasonably well-off people. | 到2060至2070年 健康的人类能够实现 |
| [54:39] | By 2075, pretty much anybody could be immortal. | 到2075年 几乎所有人都能实现永生 |
| [54:42] | I’m not convinced that uploading my consciousness | 我不认为上传我的意识 |
| [54:45] | onto a computer is a form of immortality. | 到计算机就是一种永生的形式 |
| [54:48] | I would like to live forever, | 我想永远活着 |
| [54:50] | but I’m not sure that I would like to live forever | 但我不确定我能永远活着 |
| [54:52] | as some digibytes of memory in a computer. | 就像计算机内存的数字字节那样 |
| [54:58] | I wouldn’t call that living forever. | 我不能称之为永远活着 |
| [55:00] | The things I wanna do with my body | 我想用我身体去做的事 |
| [55:01] | that I won’t be able to do in that computer. | 在那台计算机里是做不到的 |
| [55:04] | Immortality is a question that keeps arising | 永生是一个在科技领域 |
| [55:06] | in the technology community, and it’s one which I think | 经常被提出的问题 同时我认为 |
| [55:09] | is entirely feasible in principle. | 它在理论上是可行的 |
| [55:13] | We won’t actually become immortal, | 我们不会真正变得永生 |
| [55:14] | but what we will do is we will get the technology | 但我们想做到的是 |
| [55:17] | by around about 2050 to connect a human brain | 大约到2050年 我们运用科技将人类大脑 |
| [55:22] | to the machine world so well that most of your thinking | 与机器世界连接 这样你大部分的思考 |
| [55:26] | is happening inside the computer world, | 将会在计算机世界中进行 |
| [55:28] | inside the I.T., | 在信息技术里运作 |
| [55:29] | so your brain is still being used, | 所以你的大脑仍然在运作 |
| [55:31] | but 99 percent of your thoughts, 99 percent of your memories | 但你99%的想法和记忆 |
| [55:34] | are actually out there in the cloud | 其实都是云计算 |
| [55:36] | or whatever you wanna call it, | 无论你想要什么 |
| [55:37] | and only one percent is inside your head. | 只有1%在你的头脑中 |
| [55:39] | So walk into work this morning, | 所以 如果你今早走路去上班 |
| [55:41] | you get hit by a bus, it doesn’t matter. | 被公交车撞了 那也没关系 |
| [55:43] | You just upload you mind into an android | 你只需在周一早晨把你的意识 |
| [55:47] | on Monday morning and carry on | 上传给一个机器人 |
| [55:48] | as if nothing had happened. | 然后就像什么都没发生一样继续过日子 |
| [55:49] | The question with that kind of technology | 这样的科技 |
| [55:50] | 乔安娜·库克博士 人类学家 伦敦大学学院 | |
| [55:51] | and the extension of human capacity | 以及通过科技对人类能力的扩展 |
| [55:55] | and human life through technology | 和人类寿命的延长 |
| [56:00] | is where does the human end, | 所存在的问题是人类在哪里结束 |
| [56:03] | and the technology begin? | 科技在哪里开始 |
| [56:05] | If we upload our consciousness into a robot, | 如果我们上传意识到一个机器人身上 |
| [56:08] | a humanoid robot that has touch, the ability to feel, | 一个拥有触觉 感官 知觉的仿人机器人 |
| [56:13] | all of the sensorial inputs, if they’re the same, | 如果他们都是一样的 |
| [56:16] | there is a potential of continuity, right? | 那就可能存在连续性 对吗 |
| [56:20] | So you can have the same types of experiences | 所以你可以在人类的新基体中 |
| [56:24] | in that new substrate that you have as a human being. | 取得相同类型的体验 |
| [56:26] | It’s beyond a continuity issue, | 这不仅是连续性的问题 |
| [56:28] | it’s an issue that you have the ability to record | 问题在于你可以在没有内容的情况下 |
| [56:32] | and recall without the content… | 记录和回忆 |
| [56:35] | the content being the sensations, images | 这些内容是你一生经历的知觉 图像 |
| [56:37] | and feelings and thoughts you experienced your whole life | 感受和思想 |
| [56:39] | that have associated with each other | 相互之间通过神经系统 |
| [56:41] | through your neuronetwork. | 紧密相连 |
| [56:42] | Where are they stored? | 它们储存在哪里 |
| [56:43] | I don’t think consciousness and the brain | 我认为意识和思维 |
| [56:46] | is anything to do with any particular | 并不是储存在大脑中 |
| [56:48] | individual region in the brain, | 某一特定的独立区域 |
| [56:50] | but it’s something that’s all about… | 但它就像 |
| [56:52] | its distributed organization. | 分布式组织 |
| [56:55] | I don’t think there are any mysteries. | 我觉得这没有任何奥秘 |
| [56:56] | 穆雷·沙纳罕 认知机器人专家 帝国理工学院 | |
| [56:56] | There are no causal mysteries in the brain, | 大脑中没有因果之谜 |
| [56:59] | and I think that there’s a perfectly… | 我觉得存在着 |
| [57:04] | a comprehensible, physical chain | 一条可理解的物理链 |
| [57:07] | of cause and effect that goes from the things | 能够导致和影响 |
| [57:09] | that I see and hear around me | 我在身边看到和听到的东西 |
| [57:12] | and the words that come out of my mouth, | 以及那些从我嘴里说出的 |
| [57:13] | which would encompass consciousness, I suppose. | 能够表达感觉的话 |
| [57:18] | But the things that… | 但事情是这样 |
| [57:19] | the moment you say something like that, | 当你说出这些话的时候 |
| [57:20] | you’re on the edge of the philosophical precipice. | 你就站在哲学悬崖的边缘 |
| [57:24] | When you think about a machine, | 当想到机器 |
| [57:26] | the question is are you simulating consciousness | 你是否刺激了意识 |
| [57:29] | or are you simulating cognition? | 你是否刺激了认知 |
| [57:32] | Cognition requires inputs and reactions | 认知需要输入和反应 |
| [57:37] | that are associated with each other | 两者缺一不可 |
| [57:38] | to create an output and an outcome. | 从而产生输出和成果 |
| [57:40] | And you can program that all day | 你可以始终努力编程 |
| [57:42] | and you can make that as sophisticated | 将这个过程做成你希望的那样 |
| [57:44] | and as information-dense as you want, | 复杂和信息密集 |
| [57:45] | almost to the point that it mimics a real person. | 几乎达到可以模仿真人的程度 |
| [57:50] | But the question is will it ever have the consciousness | 但问题是究竟机器有没有人类基因物种 |
| [57:52] | that our species with our genetics, | 所拥有的意识 |
| [57:54] | with our brain has. | 以及人类大脑拥有的意识 |
| [57:56] | No, a machine has its own consciousness. | 答案是否定的 机器拥有它自己的意识 |
| [58:00] | All you’re doing is programming it | 你所做的只是对它进行编程 |
| [58:02] | to be cognitively responsive the way you are. | 让它有和你一样的认知反应 |
| [58:05] | I remember well, when my father died, | 我记得很清楚 在我父亲去世的时候 |
| [58:07] | asking my mother, “If I could’ve captured | 我问我母亲 如果我可以用机器 |
| [58:11] | the very being of my father in a machine, | 留住我的父亲 |
| [58:14] | and I could put him in an android | 我可以把他放进一个机器人 |
| [58:16] | that looked exactly like him, | 让机器人看起来很像他 |
| [58:17] | had all the mannerisms, | 拥有他所有的习惯怪癖 |
| [58:19] | and it was warm and | 它会是温暖的 |
| [58:20] | it smelled and it felt like him, | 它闻起来像他 它感觉起来像他 |
| [58:22] | would you do it?” and she said, “Absolutely not. | 你会这么做吗 我母亲回答 当然不会 |
| [58:24] | It wouldn’t be your father, it wouldn’t be him.” | 它不是你父亲 它不可能是你父亲 |
| [58:27] | I think that someday you can upload | 我相信有一天 |
| [58:29] | your current neuronetwork… | 你可以上传你的神经系统 |
| [58:32] | but that’s not you. | 但那不是你 |
| [58:34] | That’s just your current neuro map, right? | 那只是你现在的神经地图 对吗 |
| [58:43] | As with any concept that proposes | 就像任何表明 |
| [58:45] | to change the natural order of things, | 能改变事物自然规律的言论一样 |
| [58:48] | the idea of extreme longevity can be met with disbelief. | 永生的理念遭到了质疑 |
| [58:53] | But there is currently an international movement | 但目前有一个国际运动 |
| [58:56] | called transhumanism that is concerned | 称作超人类主义 |
| [58:59] | with fundamentally transforming | 关于通过发展科技 |
| [59:01] | the human condition by developing technologies | 对人类状况进行基础转变 |
| [59:04] | to greatly enhance human beings | 从而大大提高人类 |
| [59:07] | in an intellectual, physical, and psychological capacity. | 在智力 身体 心理方面的能力 |
| [59:11] | I really want to just simply live indefinitely, | 我很希望能无限存活 |
| [59:12] | 佐尔坦 伊斯特万 新闻工作者 超人类主义者 | |
| [59:14] | and not have the Spectre of Death hanging over me, | 亡灵不会笼罩着我 |
| [59:17] | potentially at any moment taking away | 随时等待着 |
| [59:19] | this thing that we call existence. | 将我们称为存在的东西带走 |
| [59:22] | So for me, that’s the primary goal | 所以对我来说 |
| [59:24] | of the transhumanist movement. | 这就是超人类主义的首要目标 |
| [59:26] | Transhumanists believe we should use technology | 超人类主义者认为我们应该运用科技 |
| [59:27] | 大卫·皮尔斯 哲学家 | |
| [59:29] | to overcome our biological limitations. | 来克服我们的生物缺陷 |
| [59:33] | What does that mean? | 这是什么意思呢 |
| [59:34] | Well, very simplistically, perhaps, | 简单来说 |
| [59:39] | I think we should be aiming for what one might call | 我们应该致力于达成 |
| [59:42] | a triple S civilization | 三S文明 |
| [59:44] | of super intelligence, super longevity, | 意思是超智力 超长寿 |
| [59:48] | and super happiness. | 和超幸福 |
| [59:49] | We have been evolving through hundreds and hundreds | 我们人类已经经历了 |
| [59:52] | of thousands of years, human beings, | 成百上千年的进化 |
| [59:54] | and transhumanism is the climax of that. | 超人类主义就是进化的顶点 |
| [59:56] | It’s the result of how we’re going to get | 这就是我们未来将会得到的结果 |
| [59:59] | to some kind of great future where we are way beyond | 使我们远远超出 |
| [1:00:04] | what it means to be a human being. | 人类这一概念 |
| [1:00:05] | Unfortunately, organic robots grow old and die, | 不幸的是 有机生物会变老 会死去 |
| [1:00:11] | and this isn’t a choice, it’s completely involuntary. | 这完全是无法选择的自然规律 |
| [1:00:15] | 120 years from now, in the absence | 从现在起往后120年 |
| [1:00:17] | of radical biological interventions, | 如果没有激进的生物性干预 |
| [1:00:21] | everyone listening to this video will be dead, | 所有正在看这段视频的人都会去世 |
| [1:00:24] | and not beautifully as so, | 并且不会像现在这般漂亮 |
| [1:00:27] | but one’s last years tends to be those of decrepitude, | 一个人的晚年岁月充满了衰老 |
| [1:00:31] | frequently senility, infirmity, | 常常老态龙钟 变得很虚弱 |
| [1:00:33] | and transhumanists don’t accept aging as inevitable. | 超人类主义者并不同意衰老是不可避免的 |
| [1:00:38] | There’s no immutable law of nature | 没有不变的自然法则说 |
| [1:00:41] | that says that organic robots must grow old. | 有机机器人一定会变老 |
| [1:00:44] | After all, silicone robots, they don’t need to grow old. | 毕竟 硅胶机器人就不会变老 |
| [1:00:47] | Their parts can be replaced and upgraded. | 它们可以更换或升级零件 |
| [1:00:50] | Our bodies are capable of adjusting | 我们的身体能够调节适应的能力 |
| [1:00:52] | in ways we’ve hardly dreamt of. | 能达到我们很难想象的程度 |
| [1:00:55] | If we can only find the key. | 只要我们能够找到秘诀 |
| [1:00:57] | I’m so close now, so very close. | 我已经离秘诀很近了 真的很近了 |
| [1:01:02] | – The key to what? – To be able to replace | – 什么秘诀 – 能够像移植眼角膜那样 |
| [1:01:04] | diseased and damaged parts of the body | 简单地将身体里生病和损坏的部分 |
| [1:01:06] | as easily as we replace eye corneas now. | 进行替换 |
| [1:01:10] | Can’t be done. | 那是不可能的 |
| [1:01:12] | It can be done! | 一定可以做到 |
| [1:01:15] | The relationship between life and death | 生命和死亡的关系 |
| [1:01:17] | and the role of technology in forestalling death | 以及科技在阻止死亡中起到的作用 |
| [1:01:22] | creates death, in a way, as a new kind of problem. | 使死亡在某种程度上成为一种新型的问题 |
| [1:01:26] | Death becomes something that needs to be solved. | 死亡变成了需要被解决的事情 |
| [1:01:29] | Why would it be good to live forever? | 为什么永远活着会是一件好事 |
| [1:01:30] | ‘Cause if you have a shit day, | 如果你过了糟糕的一天 |
| [1:01:32] | it dilutes the depression | 无数其他日子里的抑郁 |
| [1:01:34] | within countless other days, you know? | 就被稀释了 明白吗 |
| [1:01:35] | 威尔·赛尔夫 作家 | |
| [1:01:37] | And all of these metrics are about failing to exist | 所有这些度量标准在充分考虑你的自主权后 |
| [1:01:42] | in the full light of your own autonomy. | 都是不存在的 |
| [1:01:45] | That’s all they’re about, | 这就是全部内容 |
| [1:01:46] | 威尔·赛尔夫 作家 | |
| [1:01:47] | and the paradox of your own autonomy, | 以及你自主权的悖论 |
| [1:01:49] | which is you’re simultaneously completely free | 你会同时完全自由 |
| [1:01:52] | and completely unfree at the same time. | 和完全不自由 |
| [1:01:55] | I have been to many conferences | 我去过许多会议 |
| [1:01:56] | where you got the anti-transhumanist person | 会议上你会遇到反对超人类主义的人 |
| [1:01:59] | saying, “This is just denial of death.” | 说 这只是对死亡的否定 |
| [1:02:00] | At the end of the day, that’s all it’s about, right? | 在那一天 就这样了 对吗 |
| [1:02:04] | And it’s a kind of… the last hangover | 这是亚伯拉罕宗教 |
| [1:02:07] | of the Abrahamic religions, | 的最后宿醉 |
| [1:02:08] | this idea that we’re gonna, you know, | 我们认为 |
| [1:02:10] | come back to God and all this, | 我们会回到上帝身边 |
| [1:02:11] | and we’re gonna realize our God-like nature, | 我们意识到与上帝连接的自然规律 |
| [1:02:13] | and this is really the last kind of point for that. | 这就是最重要的事情 |
| [1:02:20] | I think there’s a lot of truth to that, | 我认为有很多事实都有待发现 |
| [1:02:21] | especially in terms of the issues | 特别在某些事情上 |
| [1:02:23] | we’ve been talking about where everybody just seems | 我们正在讨论一些 |
| [1:02:25] | to take for granted that if you’re given | 所有人都觉得理所当然的话题 |
| [1:02:27] | the chance to live forever, you’d live forever. | 如果你可以永远活着 你就会永远活着 |
| [1:02:29] | I think yes, I think that that’s true. | 我觉得是这样的 我觉得这是正确的 |
| [1:02:32] | I don’t think it’s… I think it’s true, | 我不认为 我觉得这是对的 |
| [1:02:35] | I don’t know if it’s as problematic | 我不知道是否 |
| [1:02:37] | as people kind of claim it is. | 和人类声称的一样值得疑问 |
| [1:02:38] | In other words, that there’s something wrong with | 换句话说 拥有对死亡的恐惧 |
| [1:02:40] | having this fear of death | 出现了问题 |
| [1:02:42] | and wanting to live forever. | 并且希望获得永生 |
| [1:02:43] | No, I think living forever is… | 不 我认为长生不老是 |
| [1:02:45] | I think the question is what are you doing with your time? | 我认为问题在于你的时间是用来干什么的 |
| [1:02:48] | In what capacity do you wanna live forever? | 你想以怎样的身份永生 |
| [1:02:50] | So I do think it makes all the difference in the world | 所以我真的认为它在这世上很重要 |
| [1:02:53] | whether we’re talking about Kurzweil’s way | 无论我们谈论的是库兹韦尔的方式 |
| [1:02:54] | or we’re talking about Aubrey de Grey’s way. | 还是奥布里·德·格雷的方式 |
| [1:02:56] | The way the human species operates is | 人类的运作方式就是 |
| [1:02:58] | that we’re really never fully ready for anything. | 我们从未真正为任何事情做好充分准备 |
| [1:03:01] | However, the prospect of living indefinitely | 然而 永生的前景 |
| [1:03:03] | is too promising to turn down or to slow down | 太过光明 以至于无法停下或放慢 |
| [1:03:07] | or to just not go after at full speed. | 或仅仅不要去全速追求 |
| [1:03:10] | By enabling us to find technologies to live indefinitely, | 通过使我们找到获得永生的技术的过程 |
| [1:03:14] | we’re not making it so that we’re going to live forever, | 我们不是为了追求永生而这样做 |
| [1:03:16] | we’re just making it so we have that choice. | 我们只是为了能有所选择 |
| [1:03:18] | If people wanna pull out of life | 如果人们想在未来的某个时刻 |
| [1:03:20] | at some point down the future, | 从生活中抽离 |
| [1:03:22] | they’re certainly welcome to do that. | 当然可以自便 |
| [1:03:23] | However, it’s gonna be great to eliminate death if we want, | 但最好是 只要我们愿意就能消除死亡 |
| [1:03:27] | because everyone wants that choice. | 因为每个人都想要那个选择 |
| [1:03:30] | There are other socioeconomic repercussions | 还需要考虑到长寿带来的 |
| [1:03:33] | of living longer that need to be considered. | 其他社会经济学的影响 |
| [1:03:36] | The combination of an aging population | 人口老龄化加上 |
| [1:03:38] | and the escalating expenses of healthcare, social care and retirement | 迅速攀升的医保 社保及养老开支 |
| [1:03:43] | is a problem that already exists the world over. | 已成为全世界面临的问题 |
| [1:03:47] | In the last century alone | 仅在上个世纪 |
| [1:03:49] | medicine has massively contributed to increased life expectancy. | 医学对提高预期寿命有极大贡献 |
| [1:03:55] | According to the World Health Organization | 据世界卫生组织称 |
| [1:03:57] | the number of people aged 60 years and over | 60岁及以上的人口数 |
| [1:04:00] | is expected to increase from the 605 million today | 预计将从现今的六亿零五百万人 |
| [1:04:05] | to 2 billion by the year 2050. | 增长到2050年的20亿人 |
| [1:04:09] | As people live longer | 随着寿命的延长 |
| [1:04:10] | they become more susceptible to noncommunicable diseases. | 人们更容易患非传染性疾病 |
| [1:04:15] | This becomes enormously expensive. | 这变得及其昂贵 |
| [1:04:18] | Dementia alone costs | 仅老年痴呆症一项每年就花费 |
| [1:04:20] | the NHS 23 billion a year. | 英国国家医疗服务体系230亿英镑 |
| [1:04:20] | NHS (National Health Service) 英国国家医疗服务体系 NHS老年痴呆症花费 每年230亿英镑 医保开支43亿 公共医保开支45亿 私人医保开支58亿 无偿劳动保障开支86亿 其他花费1.1亿 | |
| [1:04:24] | Currently, elderly non-workers | 当前人口中 非劳动力老年人 |
| [1:04:26] | account for a vast portion of our population | 占很大部分 |
| [1:04:30] | and a vast portion of our work force care for them. | 我们劳动力中很大部分是在照料他们 |
| [1:04:35] | It is economically beneficial to end aging. | 终结衰老在经济方面是有益的 |
| [1:04:41] | Social life is organized around people having… | 社会生活是围绕在那些处于特定的年纪 |
| [1:04:44] | occupying certain roles at certain ages, right? | 具有特定角色的那些人周围 对吧 |
| [1:04:47] | And you can already see the kinds of problems | 现在已经可以发现对福利体系 |
| [1:04:49] | that are caused to the welfare system | 带来的各种问题 |
| [1:04:51] | when people live substantially beyond the age of 65 | 当人们的寿命远远超过65岁时 |
| [1:04:54] | Because when the whole number 65 | 因为当65岁这个数字 |
| [1:04:57] | was selected by Bismarck | 被俾斯麦选中最为退休年龄时 |
| [1:04:59] | when he started the first social security system, | 那时他开创了第一个社会保障体系 |
| [1:05:01] | in Germany, the expectation was | 在德国 预期是 |
| [1:05:03] | that people would be living two years beyond the retirement age | 人们超过退休年龄两年后 |
| [1:05:07] | to be able to get the social security. | 才能获得社会保险 |
| [1:05:09] | So it wasn’t gonna break the bank, okay? | 所以并不会无法承受 好吗 |
| [1:05:11] | Problem now is you’ve got people who are living 20 years | 现在的问题是有的人在退休后 |
| [1:05:13] | or more beyond the retirement age, | 存活了20年或更长时间 |
| [1:05:16] | and that’s unaffordable. | 这就无法负担了 |
| [1:05:17] | There’s no question that, within society as a whole, | 毫无疑问 在整个社会中 |
| [1:05:20] | there is an enormous tendency to knee-jerk reactions with regard to | 如果我们要消除衰老 |
| [1:05:25] | the problems that might be created | 有很大可能性会导致 |
| [1:05:27] | if we were to eliminate aging. | 下意识反应 |
| [1:05:30] | There have been people that said, you know, | 人们都说 就是 |
| [1:05:32] | “You’ll be bored, you won’t have anything to do.” | 你会感到无聊 你会无所事事 |
| [1:05:35] | Speaking from a place of | 在寿命只有 |
| [1:05:37] | a lifespan that’s 80 or 90 years old, | 80或90岁的情况下 |
| [1:05:40] | saying that we’re going to be bored | 假设说我们活到150岁 会很无聊 |
| [1:05:41] | if we live to 150 years old really is just invalid. | 真的根本不成立 |
| [1:05:45] | We have no idea what we’ll do with that time. | 我们不知道那会儿我们会干什么 |
| [1:05:47] | Part of this transhumanism stuff, | 这个超人类主义的一部分 |
| [1:05:49] | where it gets some kind of real policy traction, | 给某些现实政策带来牵引 |
| [1:05:51] | is people who want us not to live to be 1,000, | 是那些不想让我们活到1000岁的人 |
| [1:05:55] | but maybe if we can take that 20 years | 但或许我们能花20年的时间 |
| [1:05:58] | that we’re living longer now than we did 100 years ago | 让我们比100年前活得更长寿 |
| [1:06:01] | and keep that productive. | 而且还能保持生产力 |
| [1:06:03] | So in other words, if you could still be strong | 换句话说 假如你还健壮 |
| [1:06:05] | and still be sharp into your 70s and 80s, | 七八十岁时依然头脑清醒 |
| [1:06:08] | and so not have to pull any social security | 直到生命后期都不必消耗社会保障 |
| [1:06:11] | until quite late in life and then you’ll be… | 然后你将还有 |
| [1:06:14] | you’ll have 20 extra years | 另外20年 |
| [1:06:16] | where you’re actually contributing to the economy. | 其间你对经济会有实际贡献 |
| [1:06:18] | So one of the areas that we’re gonna have to think about | 在不久的将来 我们将不得不思考的 |
| [1:06:20] | in the near future if we do achieve | 领域之一是 假如我们真的实现了 |
| [1:06:22] | extreme longevity physically | 生理上的极度长寿 |
| [1:06:25] | is the idea of overpopulation. | 所带来的人口过剩的观念 |
| [1:06:28] | This is a controversial idea, of course, | 当然 这是一个有争议的观念 |
| [1:06:31] | and we may face a time period | 我们可能会面临这样一个时期 |
| [1:06:33] | where we have to say to people, | 不得不去告诉人们 |
| [1:06:35] | “You have to be licensed to have more than one child.” | 您必须获得许才能有一个以上的孩子 |
| [1:06:39] | The ideas around children, I hope, will probably change | 我希望 有关孩子们的想法将会改变 |
| [1:06:42] | when people start to realize that the values of children | 当人们开始意识到在我们拥有孩子之前 |
| [1:06:43] | 莉娃·梅丽莎·特兹 超人类主义者 | |
| [1:06:47] | need to be defined first before we have them. | 需要首先定义孩子们的价值 |
| [1:06:49] | And that’s not something that we do. | 那不是我们做的事儿 |
| [1:06:51] | We just have them, and we don’t define why | 我们只是拥有他们 但我们不明白 |
| [1:06:54] | or for what purpose. | 是为什么或是为了什么目的 |
| [1:06:55] | I’m not saying there has to be a defined purpose, | 我不是说必须要有明确的目的 |
| [1:06:57] | but I’m saying that just to continue our gene line | 我的意思是仅仅为了延续我们的基因 |
| [1:07:00] | isn’t the biggest reason. | 并不是最重要的原因 |
| [1:07:01] | At the moment, ultimately, | 目前 基本上 |
| [1:07:02] | we see in any society where fertility rate goes down | 我们在所有社会都看到生育率的下降 |
| [1:07:06] | because of female prosperity and emancipation and education, | 因为女性的成功与解放以及受教育 |
| [1:07:10] | we also see the age of the average childbirth go up, right? | 我们也看到平均生育年龄的提高 对吧 |
| [1:07:15] | We see women having their children later. | 我们看到女性更晚有孩子 |
| [1:07:17] | Now of course, at the moment, there’s a deadline for that, | 当然 目前还有一个最后期限 |
| [1:07:19] | but that’s not going to exist anymore, | 但那将不复存在 |
| [1:07:21] | because menopause is part of aging. | 因为更年期是衰老的一部分 |
| [1:07:23] | So women who are choosing to have their children a bit later now | 因此那些现在选择晚点生孩子的女性 |
| [1:07:27] | it stands to reason that a lot of them are probably gonna choose | 不言而喻 她们中很多人可能将选择 |
| [1:07:30] | to have their children a lot later and a lot later | 再晚些 再晚些生孩子 |
| [1:07:32] | and that, of course, also has an enormous depressive impact | 这一点 当然 对全球人口轨迹 |
| [1:07:36] | on the trajectory of global population. | 也有极大的削弱效应 |
| [1:07:39] | If we actually said to everybody, “Okay, | 假如我们真的对每个人说 行吧 |
| [1:07:41] | you’re all now gonna live for 1,000 years, | 现在你们所有人都将活1000年 |
| [1:07:42] | we could restructure society | 我们可以重建社会 |
| [1:07:44] | so it’s on these 1,000-year cycles. | 以适应这1000年的周期 |
| [1:07:46] | That’s possible, but the problem becomes | 这是可能的 但问题变成了 |
| [1:07:50] | when you still allow people to live the normal length | 当你仍然允许人们有正常寿数 |
| [1:07:54] | and you’re also allowing some people to live 1,000 years | 你又允许一些人活到1000岁 |
| [1:07:56] | then how do you compare the value of the lives, | 那么你怎样去比较他们生命的价值 |
| [1:07:59] | the amount of experience? | 和经验的多少呢 |
| [1:08:01] | Supposing a 585-year-old guy | 假设 一个585岁的人 |
| [1:08:03] | goes up for a job against a 23-year-old. | 与一个23岁的人竞争一份工作 |
| [1:08:05] | How do you measure the experience? | 你将怎样去衡量他们的经验 |
| [1:08:07] | What, the old guy always gets the job? | 什么 老家伙总能找到工作吗 |
| [1:08:08] | I mean, really, these kinds of problems would arise | 真的 这类问题可能会出现 |
| [1:08:12] | unless there was some kind of legislation | 除非会有某种立法 |
| [1:08:14] | about permissible variation in age. | 去设立年龄上的容许偏差 |
| [1:08:17] | This is a bit of a conundrum | 这是个难题 |
| [1:08:19] | because we’re all expanding our lifespan, | 因为我们都在延长自己的寿命 |
| [1:08:23] | and the question is, would you like to live | 问题是 你愿意活得 |
| [1:08:26] | for not 100 years but 200? | 越久越好吗 |
| [1:08:28] | Would you choose to if you could? | 如果可以 你会这样选择吗 |
| [1:08:30] | It would be very, very difficult to say no. | 会非常 非常难说不 |
| [1:08:32] | The reality is the replacement of human piece parts | 现实是人体零件的替换 |
| [1:08:36] | is probably gonna take us in that direction, | 可能会把我们带去那个方向 |
| [1:08:38] | but it will be market driven, | 但它将是市场驱动的 |
| [1:08:40] | and those people with the money will be able to afford | 那些有钱人将能承担费用 |
| [1:08:43] | to live a lot longer than those people without. | 从而比没钱的人活得更长 |
| [1:08:45] | Pretty much most of the discovery these days | 最近大部分的发现 |
| [1:08:47] | takes place in Western Europe or the United States | 都发生在西欧或美国 |
| [1:08:49] | or one or two other countries, | 或一 两个其他国家 |
| [1:08:51] | China, Singapore, and so on, | 例如中国 新加坡等 |
| [1:08:53] | but if they’re valuable enough… | 但假如它们足够有价值 |
| [1:08:55] | and I don’t mean monetarily… | 我不是指金钱方面的 |
| [1:08:57] | if they’re worth having, then people extend them. | 如果它们值得拥有 人们就会扩大它们 |
| [1:09:00] | We have to start somewhere, and I don’t believe in | 我们必须从某处开始 并且我不相信 |
| [1:09:02] | the “dog in the manger” attitude, | 占着茅坑不拉屎的态度 |
| [1:09:04] | is that you don’t give it to anybody | 你会不把它给任何人 |
| [1:09:06] | until you can provide it for everybody. | 直到你能提供给每个人吗 |
| [1:09:07] | All technologies are discontinuous. | 所有技术都是不连续的 |
| [1:09:10] | There are people at this very moment | 有人此时此刻 |
| [1:09:12] | who are walking four kilometers | 正在步行4公里 |
| [1:09:15] | to get a bucket of water from a well. | 去井里打一桶水 |
| [1:09:17] | You know, there are people who are having cornea operations | 有人正在做角膜手术 |
| [1:09:21] | that are done with a needle where it’s stuck in their eye | 用一根针戳入眼睛 |
| [1:09:24] | and their cornea is scraped out. | 刮掉角膜就完成了 |
| [1:09:26] | You know, so these ideas of totalizing | 所以这些汇集了 |
| [1:09:29] | utopian technological intervention | 理想化的技术干预的想法 |
| [1:09:31] | are part of a discontinuous technological world | 是不连续技术世界的一部分 |
| [1:09:34] | and the world will always be discontinuous technologically. | 而世界在技术上永远是不连续的 |
| [1:09:37] | When a child has to drink dirty water, cannot get food, | 当一个孩子不得不喝脏水 得不到食物 |
| [1:09:42] | and is dying of starvation and disease, | 并正因饥饿和疾病而死去 |
| [1:09:44] | and the solution is just a few dollars, | 而解决办法仅需几美元 |
| [1:09:47] | there’s something badly wrong. | 这就有很大的问题了 |
| [1:09:48] | We need to fix those things. | 我们需要去解决这些事情 |
| [1:09:51] | The only way that we could fix them in the past | 过去 我们唯一能解决问题的办法 |
| [1:09:55] | would’ve been at unbelievable cost | 会付出巨大的代价 |
| [1:09:57] | because of the limitation of our industrial capacity and capability. | 由于我们的工业容量和能力的限制 |
| [1:10:01] | Not anymore. | 再也不会了 |
| [1:10:02] | KABALE医院 探访时间 周一 至 周六 下午1:00 至 2:00 下午4:30 至 6:00 周日 下午12:30 至 2:00 下午4:30 至 6:00 \n\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\hKabale 乌干达 | |
| [1:10:03] | – | {我们需要的是救命的药品 \h\h\h\h\h\hKabale 乌干达 |
| [1:10:07] | …not the one which is… which stops us from aging. | 不是那种 阻止我们衰老的 |
| [1:10:07] | 尼古拉·撒迪厄斯·卡马拉 卡巴莱医院 内科医生 | |
| [1:10:11] | In the last 20 years, | 在过去20年里 |
| [1:10:11] | 撒哈拉以南 非洲 | |
| [1:10:13] | healthcare in Sub-Saharan Africa | 撒哈拉以南非洲的医疗保障 |
| [1:10:13] | 撒哈拉以南 非洲 | |
| [1:10:16] | has greatly improved. | 已经大大得到改善 |
| [1:10:19] | HIV prevalence has gone down, | HIV的流行情况已下降 |
| [1:10:22] | Infant mortality rate has gone down. | 婴儿死亡率已下降 |
| [1:10:24] | Immunization rates have gone up, | 免疫率已提高 |
| [1:10:27] | and the drug supply in many areas has risen. | 许多地区的毒品供应也有所增加 |
| [1:10:31] | However, healthcare and medication | 然而 医疗保障和药物治疗 |
| [1:10:34] | in developing countries | 在发展中国家 |
| [1:10:36] | is not always affordable or even readily available. | 不总是能负担得起 甚至不是随时可供 |
| [1:10:40] | It is not just medicine. | 不仅仅是药物 |
| [1:10:41] | According to the World Health Organization, | 据世界卫生组织称 |
| [1:10:44] | over 700 million people worldwide | 全世界超过7亿人 |
| [1:10:47] | do not have access to clean drinking water. | 无法获得清洁的饮用水 |
| [1:10:51] | We still live in an age where over one billion people | 我们依然生活在这样一个时代 |
| [1:10:54] | live off less than a dollar a day | 有超过10亿人靠每天不到1美元生活 |
| [1:10:56] | and live in extreme poverty. | 生活在极度贫困之中 |
| [1:10:58] | It is ultimately not a scientific issue, | 这根本不是一个科学问题 |
| [1:11:01] | it is a geopolitical issue. | 这是一个地缘政治问题 |
| [1:11:05] | – | 我们已经有困难 |
| [1:11:08] | – | 在治疗癌症等疾病方面 |
| [1:11:11] | – | 我们没有治疗癌症的药物 |
| [1:11:15] | – | 我们没有足够的药物 比如 |
| [1:11:17] | – | 用于心脏病诊断和治疗的药物 |
| [1:11:23] | Er… another thing | 呃 还有就是 |
| [1:11:25] | – | 制药公司不想生产那些药物 |
| [1:11:28] | – | 比如 |
| [1:11:29] | – | 针对其中某些疾病 |
| [1:11:33] | – | 拿滴虫病来说 |
| [1:11:36] | – | 直到最近我们还在使用一种药物 |
| [1:11:39] | – | 一种前抗生素时代前使用的药物 |
| [1:11:41] | – | 叫做 葡萄糖酸锑钠 |
| [1:11:44] | – | 你可以想象 |
| [1:11:45] | – | 制药公司不想去寻求这类药物 |
| [1:11:50] | – | 为什么呢 |
| [1:11:51] | – | 因为 |
| [1:11:52] | – | 非洲没有钱 |
| [1:11:54] | – | 假如他们发现了药物并在这里出售 |
| [1:11:57] | – | 谁又会去买呢 |
| [1:12:00] | 我们仍有人患有疟疾和结核病 而有钱人却在资助那些使他们能够 活得更长项目 这点看起来相当自私 \h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h\h比尔 盖茨 | |
| [1:12:05] | Now a lot of people, a lot of philanthropists | 现在很多人 很多慈善家 |
| [1:12:08] | are of the view that the most important thing to do | 认为最重要的事情是 |
| [1:12:13] | is to address the trailing edge of quality of life. | 是去着力解决生活质量的后缘 |
| [1:12:16] | In other words, to help the disadvantaged. | 换句话说 去帮助那些弱势群体 |
| [1:12:19] | But some visionary philanthropists | 但一些有远见的慈善家 |
| [1:12:22] | such as the ones that fund SENS Research Foundation… | 比如那些资助森斯研究基金会的 |
| [1:12:25] | and the fact is I agree with this, | 事实上 我更赞同这样 |
| [1:12:27] | and that’s why I’ve put most of my inheritance | 所以我把我的大部分遗产 |
| [1:12:29] | into SENS Research Foundation, too… | 也捐助给了森斯研究基金会 |
| [1:12:31] | we feel that, actually, in the long run, | 实际上 我们觉得 从长远来看 |
| [1:12:35] | you lose out if you focus too exclusively on the trailing edge. | 如果仅仅只关注后缘 你会输的 |
| [1:12:40] | You’ve got also to push forward the leading edge, | 你也需要去推进前沿 |
| [1:12:43] | so that in the long term, everybody moves forward. | 这样从长远来讲 每个人都在前进 |
| [1:12:46] | – | 这涉及真正的利润 |
| [1:12:48] | – | 因为这些股东们 |
| [1:12:51] | – | 这些公司有股东 |
| [1:12:54] | – | 没人想购买某公司的股份 |
| [1:12:57] | – | 如果他们的股票没有逐年上涨 |
| [1:13:02] | – | 我们这里有可口可乐的原因 |
| [1:13:05] | – | 也是我们这儿会有辉瑞制药和惠氏公司的原因 |
| [1:13:08] | – | 辉瑞不会将他们的生意做到乌干达来 |
| [1:13:11] | – | 是因为他们的股票不会仅仅因为 |
| [1:13:14] | – | 贫穷的乌干达人买了一剂药而上涨 |
| [1:13:18] | – | 我认为这是一个非常复杂的局势 |
| [1:13:21] | – | 我们中有些人无法控制 |
| [1:13:24] | – | 我们只是作为乌干达人去考虑那些 |
| [1:13:27] | – | 我们开始用自己的方式 |
| [1:13:30] | – | 去探索怎样解决我们的问题 |
| [1:13:36] | Due to a lack of funding from governments, | 由于缺乏政府方面的的资金 |
| [1:13:39] | anti-aging research is often pushed into the private sector. | 抗衰老研究常被推给由私人机构 |
| [1:13:43] | If we look at funding for disease… | 如果我们看看为疾病提供的经费 |
| [1:13:47] | cancer, heart disease… | 癌症 心脏病 |
| [1:13:49] | they get six billion, eight billion, ten billion. | 他们得到60亿 80亿 100亿 |
| [1:13:51] | AIDS still gets two to four billion. | 艾滋病仍能得到20到40亿的经费 |
| [1:13:54] | Let’s look at Alzheimer’s disease. | 比如阿尔茨海默症 |
| [1:13:56] | It’s probably the most important disease of aging, | 它可能是最重要的衰老性疾病 |
| [1:13:58] | the brain… it gets under a half a billion | 有关大脑 它只得到了少于5亿的经费 |
| [1:14:02] | from the federal government, | 从联邦政府那里 |
| [1:14:03] | and a lot of that goes to programs | 并且很多经费都是用于 |
| [1:14:05] | that are tied up with pharma trials | 药物试验相关的具体项目 |
| [1:14:07] | where we don’t really see it in the labs, | 我们不可能在实验室见到这些资金 |
| [1:14:09] | so you’re maybe down to two or three hundred million. | 所以实际经费可能会降到2至3亿 |
| [1:14:12] | It’s not nearly enough to really make a dent. | 这几乎不足以取得初步进展 |
| [1:14:15] | The question is, | 问题是 |
| [1:14:16] | why when it comes to Alzheimer’s disease, | 为什么当涉及到阿尔茨海默症 |
| [1:14:20] | which is a problem in the elderly | 这个老年人的问题时 |
| [1:14:22] | do we just see it as… the federal government | 我们是否只把它看作 联邦政府 |
| [1:14:25] | seems to see it as a red-haired stepchild. | 似乎把它当做一个不招人待见的继子 |
| [1:14:27] | They don’t take care of it. | 他们不管它 |
| [1:14:29] | Some people say it’s because… | 有人说是因为 |
| [1:14:31] | people say, “Well, it affects old people, | 人们说 好吧 它对老年人有影响 |
| [1:14:32] | they lived their lives, let them go.” | 他们过着自己的生活 随他们的便吧 |
| [1:14:34] | No one wants to admit that, but maybe subconsciously, | 没有人愿意承认 但可能下意识的 |
| [1:14:37] | when Congress is thinking about this, | 在国会考虑这个问题时 |
| [1:14:39] | that’s at play, who knows? | 就起作用了 谁知道呢 |
| [1:14:41] | Maybe it’s much more compelling | 也许这更令人信服 |
| [1:14:43] | to wanna put money into diseases that affect young people | 想去把钱花在影响年轻人的疾病上 |
| [1:14:47] | who still have their whole life to live | 他们还能活很久 |
| [1:14:49] | when they have AIDS or breast cancer | 当他们得艾滋病 乳腺癌 |
| [1:14:51] | or cancer that can strike somebody at 30 or 40 years old | 或那些三四十岁忽然得的癌症时 |
| [1:14:54] | Age might be part of it, and even if it’s something | 也许与年龄有关系 即使你会说 |
| [1:14:56] | where you’d say, “No, it can’t be that!” | 不 不可能的 |
| [1:14:58] | you never know what’s happening subconsciously | 你永远不会知道潜意识里 |
| [1:15:00] | in those who are making the decisions. | 做决定时到底发生了什么 |
| [1:15:01] | Otherwise, it just makes no sense at all. | 否则就完全没有意义 |
| [1:15:03] | I don’t know how to explain it. | 我不知道如何去解释 |
| [1:15:05] | When you talk to people about aging | 当你在和人们谈论抗衰老 |
| [1:15:05] | 莉娃·梅丽莎·特兹 超人类主义者 | |
| [1:15:06] | and rejuvenation medicine, you’re talking about things | 和恢复青春的药物时 人们并不会 |
| [1:15:09] | that they haven’t put in the same category | 把这些归类为能够 |
| [1:15:12] | as things that they can fight. | 去抗争改变的事 |
| [1:15:13] | They are willing to put money | 他们更愿意把资金 |
| [1:15:14] | towards solving cancer and curing cancer. | 用来解决和治愈癌症 |
| [1:15:16] | It’s something they might have the potential of experiencing. | 这是他们更有可能经历的事 |
| [1:15:19] | But the thing that’s 100 percent in terms of probability, | 就概率而言这是100%会发生的 |
| [1:15:21] | they haven’t classified that as in the same category | 但他们却未将其归类为同一类别 |
| [1:15:24] | when actually it is and actually it’s more dramatic | 而事实上确实是同一类别而且更引人注目 |
| [1:15:26] | because 100 percent of people experience it. | 因为所有人都会经历的 |
| [1:15:28] | You need to have the will to be cured. | 你得有被治愈的意愿 |
| [1:15:31] | Beyond that, medical science will play its part. | 除此之外 医学科学会起到它的作用 |
| [1:15:35] | I think it’s essentially a crime | 我认为不支持生命延长科学 |
| [1:15:38] | to not support life extension science, | 本质上是一种犯罪 |
| [1:15:41] | because if you support the other side, | 因为如果你支持另一面 |
| [1:15:43] | you’re an advocate for killing someone. | 你就是杀人的支持者 |
| [1:15:45] | When you actually support a culture of death, | 当你实际上支持一种死亡的文化 |
| [1:15:47] | 佐尔坦 伊斯特万 新闻工作者 超人类主义者 | |
| [1:15:49] | when you support embracing death, | 支持拥护死亡 |
| [1:15:53] | what you’re really doing is not supporting embracing life. | 你真正做的就是不支持享受生命 |
| [1:15:56] | Everyone ought to be healthy, | 每个人都应该健康地活着 |
| [1:15:58] | however long ago they were born. | 不论他们是多长时间之前出生的 |
| [1:16:01] | When someone says, “Oh, dear, we shouldn’t defeat aging, | 当某人说道 我们不应该战胜衰老 |
| [1:16:04] | we shouldn’t work to eliminate aging,” | 我们不应该去消除衰老 |
| [1:16:05] | what they’re actually saying is they’re not in favor | 他们实际上是在说他们不支持 |
| [1:16:08] | of healthcare for the elderly, or to be more precise, | 对老人的健康护理 或者更精确一点 |
| [1:16:11] | what they’re saying is they’re only in favor | 他们是在说他们只支持 |
| [1:16:13] | of healthcare for the elderly | 对老年人的健康护理 |
| [1:16:15] | so long as it doesn’t work very well. | 直到它不再很好地起作用 |
| [1:16:17] | And I think that’s fucked up. | 我认为那是不对的 |
| [1:16:20] | 拉里·佩奇 我很兴奋地宣布加州生命公司成立 一个全新的公司专注于健康 特别是衰老以及相关的疾病的挑战 阿特·莱文森 基因泰克公司 的主席和前首席执行官 苹果的主席 将会出任首席执行官 | |
| [1:16:20] | In September 2013, | 2013年9月 |
| [1:16:23] | Google announced the conception of Calico, | 谷歌宣布加州生命公司成立 |
| [1:16:26] | an independent biotech company | 一个独立的生物科技公司 |
| [1:16:28] | that remains to this day a little mysterious. | 如今还是很神秘 |
| [1:16:31] | Its aim is to tackle aging and devise interventions | 它的目标是解决衰老 |
| [1:16:36] | that enable people to lead longer and healthier lives. | 找到让人的生命更长更健康地方法 |
| [1:16:40] | In September 2014, | 2014年9月 |
| [1:16:42] | the life extension company announced it was partnering | 这个生命延长公司宣布 |
| [1:16:45] | with biopharmaceutical giant AbbVie, | 和生物制药巨头艾伯维合作 |
| [1:16:49] | and made a $1.5 billion investment into research. | 并且投入15亿美元用于研发 |
| [1:16:54] | I think one of the biggest obstacles | 我认为目前要接受 |
| [1:16:56] | that we have at the moment to come to terms | 我们所讨论的这个未来世界 |
| [1:16:58] | with this future world we’re talking about | 最大的障碍 |
| [1:17:01] | is a lot of people who basically | 是有许多人 |
| [1:17:03] | don’t want it to happen at all | 根本不想让它发生 |
| [1:17:05] | and so are placing all kinds of ethical | 并且还设立各种各样的 |
| [1:17:09] | and institutional restrictions | 道德和制度限制 |
| [1:17:11] | on the development of this stuff | 来阻止其发展 |
| [1:17:12] | so that it becomes difficult, let’s say, in universities | 使其变得困难异常 比如 在大学里 |
| [1:17:14] | to experiment with certain kinds of drugs, right? | 用某种毒品做实验 对吧 |
| [1:17:17] | To develop certain kinds of machines maybe even, | 甚至研发某种机器 |
| [1:17:19] | and as a result, all of that kind of research | 结果就是 这些种类的研究 |
| [1:17:21] | ends up going into either the private sector | 要么到私人部门去了 |
| [1:17:24] | or maybe underground, right? | 要么就转移到地下去了 对吧 |
| [1:17:26] | Or going into some country that’s an ethics-free zone | 或者去到一些没有那么多道德限制的国家 |
| [1:17:29] | like China or someplace like that, | 比如中国之类的 |
| [1:17:31] | and I think that’s where the real problems | 我觉得这才是真正的问题所在之处 |
| [1:17:33] | potentially lie, because we really need to be doing, | 因为我们真的需要做 |
| [1:17:36] | you know, we need to be developing this stuff, | 需要研究这些东西 |
| [1:17:37] | but in the public eye, right? | 在公众眼中 |
| [1:17:39] | So it should be done by the mainstream authorities | 应该由主流权威来研究 |
| [1:17:42] | so we can monitor the consequences | 我们才能监督结果 |
| [1:17:44] | as they’re happening and then be able | 并且在有情况发生时 |
| [1:17:45] | to take appropriate action. | 能采取适当的措施 |
| [1:17:47] | But I’m afraid that a lot of this stuff | 但是恐怕许多这些东西 |
| [1:17:49] | is perhaps being driven outside | 都被边缘化了 |
| [1:17:51] | because of all the restrictions that are placed on it. | 就因为各种各样的限制 |
| [1:17:54] | That I think is very worrisome, | 这一点我觉得让人非常担忧 |
| [1:17:55] | because then you can’t keep track of the results, | 因为你不能追踪结果 |
| [1:17:57] | and you don’t know exactly what’s happening. | 你也不知道到底发生了什么 |
| [1:17:59] | And I think that’s a real problem already | 我认为这已经是一个 |
| [1:18:01] | with a lot of this more futuristic stuff. | 有很多未来东西的问题了 |
| [1:18:05] | Arguably, the human condition | 可以说 人类的现状 |
| [1:18:07] | is defined by our anxiety of death. | 是定义为我们对死亡的焦虑 |
| [1:18:10] | It’s of little wonder that throughout history, | 纵观历史 |
| [1:18:13] | mankind has built countless belief systems | 人类通过承诺永无止境的天堂 |
| [1:18:16] | in a bid to pacify the fear of death | 来安抚对死亡的恐惧 |
| [1:18:19] | through the promise of endless paradise. | 而创建的无数信仰体系可以算是一种奇迹 |
| [1:18:22] | Ultimately, death always wins. | 最终 死亡总是获得胜利 |
| [1:18:25] | If it’s not so much death we fear, it’s dying. | 相比死亡本身 死亡的过程更令人害怕 |
| [1:18:30] | The relationship between life and death | 生与死之间的关系 |
| [1:18:31] | 乔安娜·库克博士 人类学家 伦敦大学学院 | |
| [1:18:32] | is often figured in terms of immortality | 通常被认为是永生 |
| [1:18:37] | and the quest for immortality. | 和对永生的追求 |
| [1:18:39] | There’s a philosopher, a brilliant philosopher | 有一个哲学家 一个聪明的哲学家 |
| [1:18:41] | called Stephen Cave, | 叫做史提芬·凯夫 |
| [1:18:42] | who, in his book Immortality, | 他在他的书 永生 当中 |
| [1:18:44] | argues that our fear of death is the great driver | 认为我们对死亡的恐惧是所有文明 |
| [1:18:48] | of all civilization, of all human endeavor, | 所有人类的奋斗最大的动力 |
| [1:18:52] | and he identifies four different ways | 他确定了人们寻找永生 |
| [1:18:56] | in which people seek immortality, | 的四种不同方式 |
| [1:18:59] | so firstly the idea of extending life, | 第一种是延长生命 |
| [1:19:03] | of living forever. | 长生不老 |
| [1:19:05] | Secondly, the idea of resurrection | 第二种是复活 |
| [1:19:07] | so that we might come back after death in some form. | 这样我们就可能在死后以某种形式重生 |
| [1:19:11] | Thirdly, the idea of the immortality | 第三种是在我们身体之外 |
| [1:19:15] | of some part of ourselves beyond the physical body. | 精神层面的某部分自我的永生 |
| [1:19:19] | So perhaps the immortality of the soul, for example, | 比如 灵魂的永生 |
| [1:19:22] | or living on in Heaven. | 或者在天堂继续活下去 |
| [1:19:25] | And finally the idea of leaving a legacy. | 最后就是留下遗产 |
| [1:19:29] | I think that one of life’s challenges | 我认为生命的其中一项挑战 |
| [1:19:32] | really actually is to come to terms | 事实上是向我们自身的限制 |
| [1:19:34] | with our own finitude and mortality | 和有限的生命 |
| [1:19:37] | and human limitations, | 以及人类的极限妥协 |
| [1:19:39] | and this is an enormous challenge. | 这是一个非常巨大的挑战 |
| [1:19:58] | Technology, a reflection of our times. | 科学技术 我们时代的缩影 |
| [1:20:02] | Efficient, computerized, with a sleek beauty all its own. | 高效 计算机化 有着它自身的优雅美丽 |
| [1:20:07] | Technology is the human imagination | 科技是将人类的想象 |
| [1:20:10] | converted into reality. | 转变成为现实 |
| [1:20:12] | We are all interested in the future, | 我们都对未来充满了兴趣 |
| [1:20:14] | for that is where you and I are going to spend | 因为那里就是你和我 |
| [1:20:16] | the rest of our lives. | 将要度过余生的地方 |
| [1:20:27] | It’s impossible to say for sure | 要确定这些新科技会将我们带向何方 |
| [1:20:29] | where these new technologies will take us | 以及我们准备怎样将这些科技 |
| [1:20:32] | and how we will prepare to implement them into society. | 融入到我们的社会是不可能的 |
| [1:20:36] | It is likely that they will affect the sensibilities | 它们很有可能会影响到 |
| [1:20:39] | of global infrastructure. | 全球基础设施的承受能力 |
| [1:20:42] | There are always anxieties surrounding new technologies, | 人们对新技术总是充满了焦虑 |
| [1:20:46] | and this time is no exception. | 这次也不例外 |
| [1:20:50] | I think people fear change, | 我认为人们害怕改变 |
| [1:20:52] | and so the future represents this enormous amount | 未来代表着 |
| [1:20:55] | of change that’s coming at us. | 向我们迎来的巨大改变 |
| [1:20:57] | I do think it’s overwhelming for people, | 我认为人们确实会不知所措 |
| [1:20:59] | you know, they are afraid to change | 他们害怕他们的日常生活 |
| [1:21:02] | the paradigm that they live in, | 发生改变 |
| [1:21:04] | and when we talk about the future of work and death, | 当我们谈论工作和死亡的未来时 |
| [1:21:06] | what we’re really talking about is changing | 我们真正在谈论的是 |
| [1:21:09] | a paradigm that has existed for us | 改变我们世世代代的 |
| [1:21:11] | as long as we can remember. | 生活方式 |
| [1:21:12] | All of this kind of scare mongering | 这些各种各样的担忧 |
| [1:21:15] | about harm and risk and stuff like that | 传播的伤害和风险之类的 |
| [1:21:19] | really is… it’s based on a kind of psychological illusion, | 事实上是 是基于一种心理上的错觉 |
| [1:21:23] | namely that you imagine that you kind of see the bad state | 即当改变发生时你会把 |
| [1:21:27] | as a bad state when it happens, | 你想象中的糟糕情况看做是糟糕情况 |
| [1:21:30] | whereas in fact, what more likely happens | 而事实上更有可能的是 |
| [1:21:32] | is that you kinda get adjusted to the various changes | 你会适应这些各种各样的 |
| [1:21:35] | that are happening in your environment | 发生在你周围的改变 |
| [1:21:36] | so that when you actually do reach that state | 以至于当你真正到达我们所谈论的状态时 |
| [1:21:38] | we’re talking about, it’ll seem normal. | 它看起来是很普通的 |
| [1:21:42] | And because, look, when the automobile | 因为 比如 当汽车 |
| [1:21:44] | was introduced in the early 20th century, | 在20世纪早期被引入的时候 |
| [1:21:46] | people were saying this is just gonna pump | 人们会说这会排放 |
| [1:21:48] | a lot of smoke into the atmosphere, | 很多的烟到大气中 |
| [1:21:50] | it’s going to ruin our contact with nature | 那会毁掉我们与自然的联系 |
| [1:21:51] | ’cause we’ll be in these enclosed vehicles, | 因为我们会待在这些封闭的汽车中 |
| [1:21:53] | we’ll be going so fast, | 我们会快速移动 |
| [1:21:55] | we won’t be able to appreciate things, | 我们没办法欣赏美景 |
| [1:21:56] | there’ll be congestion, blah, blah, blah, | 还会有塞车 等等 |
| [1:21:58] | they were right! | 他们说对了 |
| [1:22:00] | They were right, but of course, | 他们说对了 当然 |
| [1:22:02] | by the time you get to that state | 当你来到汽车已经造成 |
| [1:22:03] | where the automobile has had that impact, | 巨大影响的时候 |
| [1:22:05] | it’s also had all this benefit as well, | 同样它也带来各种各样的好处 |
| [1:22:07] | and your whole life has been kind of restructured around it. | 围绕着它你的生活发生了重建 |
| [1:22:10] | Arguably, people who are using | 按理说 用试管受孕 |
| [1:22:12] | or have been conceived using in vitro fertilization | 培育出来的人不是真正的人 |
| [1:22:18] | are cyborgs way before they were ever even people. | 而是生化人 |
| [1:22:23] | Now that doesn’t mean that we understand kinship | 这并不意味着我们理解的亲缘关系 |
| [1:22:26] | in a radically different way. | 是完全不同的 |
| [1:22:28] | Just look at the Industrial Revolution! | 看看工业革命吧 |
| [1:22:29] | Is anyone actually… does anyone actually regret | 有人 有人真正后悔 |
| [1:22:33] | that the Industrial Revolution occurred? | 发生过工业革命吗 |
| [1:22:35] | No, it was fairly turbulent, right? | 不 那是相当混乱的 对吧 |
| [1:22:37] | You know, we did actually have a little bit of strife | 我们从工业革命之前的世界转变到 |
| [1:22:40] | in the translation from a pre-industrial world | 我们现在的世界的过程中 |
| [1:22:42] | to the world we know today. | 还发生过一些冲突 |
| [1:22:44] | But the fact is, we adapted. | 但事实上是 我们适应了 |
| [1:22:46] | The most important thing here is to try to compare it | 这里最重要的事是尝试和 |
| [1:22:48] | to something in the past. | 过去的事进行对比 |
| [1:22:50] | Imagine we were… it was 1914, | 想象一下 假如现在是1914年 |
| [1:22:52] | 100 years back, | 100年前 |
| [1:22:53] | and I told you that most people on the planet | 我告诉你这个星球上 |
| [1:22:56] | would have the ability to have | 大多数人都能够用 |
| [1:22:57] | this tiny cell phone screen in front of them | 这种小手机屏幕在他们面前 |
| [1:22:59] | and video conference with ten of their friends all at once. | 并且和他们的十个朋友一起进行视频会议 |
| [1:23:02] | If it was 1914, you would look at me and say, | 如果在1914年 你会看着我并说 |
| [1:23:04] | “That’s absurd, this guy’s insane.” | 太荒唐了 这家伙有病吧 |
| [1:23:06] | However, it’s the sort of same concept | 然而 这种概念是相同的 |
| [1:23:09] | when I tell you now in 50 years | 当我告诉你50年后 |
| [1:23:10] | we’re going to be digital beings of ourselves, | 我们自身会被数字化 |
| [1:23:13] | it’s no so far-fetched. | 这并不是难以置信的 |
| [1:23:14] | You have to look at it in the historical context. | 你必须与历史作对比 |
| [1:23:16] | All concepts of technological progress | 所有技术进步的观念 |
| [1:23:19] | in that way are linked to post-enlightenment ideas | 都与后启蒙思想相关联 |
| [1:23:23] | or non… they’re linked to the idea | 或者都不相关联 他们和 |
| [1:23:26] | of the arrow of time being in free flight forward, | 时间的箭头自由向前冲的观念相关联 |
| [1:23:29] | but they’re also chiliastic, | 但他们也是幼稚的 |
| [1:23:30] | they propose an end state. | 他们提出了一个终极状态 |
| [1:23:33] | They propose the end state, | 他们提出这个终极状态 |
| [1:23:34] | and the end state is the singularity, | 并且这个终极状态是单一的 |
| [1:23:36] | but they propose it as something desirable. | 但是他们是以一种渴望的事物提出的 |
| [1:23:38] | Now any kind of philosophy like that, it’s, you know, | 现如今那样的哲学 |
| [1:23:41] | jam tomorrow, jam yesterday, | 都会挤压明天 挤压昨天 |
| [1:23:43] | but never jam today. | 但是绝不会挤压今天 |
| [1:23:45] | They’re all philosophies that are about | 他们都是关于接受你现在处于的糟糕状态 |
| [1:23:47] | accept the shit you’re in… work, consume, die… | 工作 消费 死亡 的哲学 |
| [1:23:50] | because there is something better in the future, | 因为在未来会有更好的东西 |
| [1:23:53] | or there’s something more innovative in the future. | 或者在未来会有更具革命性的东西 |
| [1:23:55] | There are good scenarios and there are bad scenarios. | 有好的情景也有坏的情景 |
| [1:23:57] | I don’t know where we’re headed. | 我不知道我们去向何方 |
| [1:23:58] | I mean, I don’t think anyone really knows. | 我的意思是 我认为没有人真正知道 |
| [1:24:02] | You know, if anyone claims to know the future, | 如果有人声称知道未来 |
| [1:24:03] | they’re guessing, they’re extrapolating forward, | 那他一定是猜的 他是向前推断的 |
| [1:24:05] | and we draw some lines and curves | 我们画一些线条和曲线 |
| [1:24:07] | and see where technology’s gonna be. | 来预测科技会怎样发展 |
| [1:24:08] | What that means, | 那意味着什么 |
| [1:24:10] | I don’t think any of us really understand. | 我认为我们没人真正理解 |
| [1:24:11] | Everyone assumes that the future is going to be | 每个人都认定未来 |
| [1:24:14] | dramatically different from today | 会和现在完全不同 |
| [1:24:16] | and that’s absolutely true, | 那完全正确 |
| [1:24:17] | but it’s also true that the future will be | 但未来会是今天世界的延伸 |
| [1:24:19] | an extension of today’s world. | 也是正确的 |
| [1:24:20] | The problems that exist in today’s world | 今天世界存在的问题 |
| [1:24:23] | are still gonna be with us in the future. | 在未来也会存在 |
| [1:24:26] | Human nature is not gonna change. | 人类的本性是不会改变的 |
| [1:24:28] | The end point in all of this game | 这场游戏的终点 |
| [1:24:31] | will become a bit of a moral | 将会变成一个 |
| [1:24:33] | and an ethical question for society | 关于伦理道德的问题 |
| [1:24:36] | where decisions will have to be made. | 最终由社会来作出解答 |
| [1:24:40] | Like life itself, work and death, | 就如生命本身 工作和死亡 |
| [1:24:42] | for better or worse, | 更好和更糟 |
| [1:24:44] | are two features of the human experience | 是扑向我们的 |
| [1:24:46] | that are thrust upon us. | 两个人类经历的特征 |
| [1:24:49] | Whether or not we define work and death | 不管我们是否明确工作和死亡 |
| [1:24:51] | as problems in need of remedy, | 是需要改进的问题 |
| [1:24:53] | human ingenuity is a progressive and natural extension | 人类的聪明才智都是我们自身 |
| [1:24:57] | of our own evolution. | 进化的进步和延伸 |
| [1:25:06] | Advancing our technological capabilities is a way | 发展先进的科学技术是一种 |
| [1:25:10] | of dealing with our limitations as human beings. | 弥补我们自身不足的一种方式 |
| [1:25:15] | Must we do something | 只是因为我们能够做一些事 |
| [1:25:16] | just because we’re capable of doing something? | 就必须要做这些事吗 |
| [1:25:19] | Or can we withhold our hands and say | 或者我们可以揣着手并说 |
| [1:25:19] | 艾萨克 阿西莫夫 生化学家 科幻小说家 | |
| [1:25:21] | “No, this is not a good thing to do”? | 不 这并不是一件好事 |
| [1:25:23] | This is something that the human species | 这是一件人类必须 |
| [1:25:26] | must decide for itself. | 自己决定的事 |
| [1:25:28] | You and I, | 你和我 |
| [1:25:28] | we can’t just leave it to the scientists. | 我们不能将它留给科学家来决定 |
| [1:25:30] | We have to know what’s going on | 我们必须要知道发生了什么 |
| [1:25:32] | and why! | 以及为什么会发生 |